It is a rivalry as bitter as time itself and one of the best NFL matchups. The Pittsburgh Steelers visit the Baltimore Ravens at 8:20 p.m. ET on New Year’s Day at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland.
It is a game of such high importance that the league moved its NFL schedule and flexed it to Sunday Night Football. It is essentially an elimination game for the Steelers (7-8) and a positioning game for the Ravens (10-5).
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Pittsburgh Steelers Season Forecast
The Pittsburgh Steelers have never had a season below .500 under coach Mike Tomlin, and they need to win this game to avoid that. There are three teams who aren’t division leaders with a better record than them and three teams with the same record vying for a coveted playoff spot.
The Steelers are third worst in scoring 17.6 points per game. They are 23rd in gaining 320.0 yards of offense per game. That includes 24th passing for 204.6 yards per contest and 18th rushing for 115.4 yards per contest. They are 12th with 18 giveaways.
Defensively, they are 13th in holding teams to 21.3 points per game. They are sixth against the rush, holding teams to 105.6 yards per contest and 18th overall with 338.0 yards allowed per game. Their 20 takeaways are 11th.
Moneyline
Opening Line
The Steelers’ opening moneyline started at +169.
How the Line Has Moved and Why
The line has since moved to +165, likely due to slight betting adjustments.
What May Lose the Bet
There is some reason to believe Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson may return from the NFL injury report. The Ravens were expected to hold him out if there was no way to move up, but the AFC North division is still in play for them.
Spread Line
Opening Line
The Steelers opened as +4.
How the Line Has Moved and Why
The line has moved to Steelers +3.5, likely due to early betting intake influencing the movement.
What May Lose the Bet
That hook is still big for those who like the underdogs with the Steelers vs Ravens spread. However, a stagnant offense, except for late in games as they showed in the Christmas Eve victory over the Las Vegas Raiders, is susceptible to losing games.
Total
Opening Line
The over is projected at 36.5 -110.
How the Line Has Moved and Why
The line has not moved since it opened.
What May Lose the Bet
If Jackson plays, it could spell trouble for the Steelers offense. They looked good in their two-minute drill and should stick to that throughout the game. However, it is unlikely that is the game plan based on the season’s results.
Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Trend to Know
The NFL expert picks would benefit from betting on the Steelers this season. They are 8-6-1 against the spread and 6-9 on over/under. They are 4-4 straight up on the road. The Steelers are 5-4-1 against the spread as underdogs this season, including 2-2-1 when underdogs of 6.5 points or less.
The Steelers have won four of the last five in the series, losing last season’s final meeting between the two. During that span, the Steelers are 3-2 against the spread, and there have been four straight under.
The underdog is 20-6-3 against the spread in their last 29 meetings. The Steelers are 4-1 against the spread in their last five meetings in Baltimore. Keep this in mind when thinking about the Steelers vs Ravens spread.
Baltimore Ravens Season Forecast
The NFL standings have given way to the Cincinnati Bengals, but the Ravens could win out and still have a chance at the division with a Week 18 meeting with them looming. But Baltimore first has to take care of business against the Steelers, who the Ravens have struggled with.
Baltimore is 15th in the league in scoring 21.4 points per game but is 17th in gaining 342.3 yards of offense per game. The Ravens are 28th in passing for 176.3 yards while second in gaining 166.0 yards rushing. Their 16 giveaways are sixth.
Defensively, the NFL team stats are better. The Ravens are third in holding teams to 18.1 points per game and with 23 takeaways. They are third against the rush, holding teams to 87.5 yards per game, and 10th overall at 327.0 yards of offense.
NFL player stats show Jackson’s health is key. He is the team’s leading rusher by more than 300 yards, and he has 17 touchdown passes in 12 games, while Huntley has one in five games.
Moneyline
Opening Line
The Ravens opened as -192 on the moneyline.
How the Line Has Moved and Why
The line has moved to -200, likely due to early betting adjustments.
What Make Lose the Bet
If Jackson can’t play, then they will have to rely on Tyler Huntley against a defense that just shut down Derek Carr and Davante Adams.
Spread Line
Opening Line
The Ravens opened as four-point favorites.
How the Line Has Moved and Why
The line has since moved to Ravens -3.5, likely due to early betting adjustments.
What May Lose the Bet
Kicker Justin Tucker missed a couple of field goals in brutal conditions. Generally one of the game’s best kickers, he shouldn’t be a reason to lose, but he could be, especially leaving points off the Steelers vs Ravens spread.
Total
Opening Line
The under was 36.5 -110.
How the Line Has Moved and Why
That is the same line as of this writing.
What Make Lose the Bet
Aside from Tucker’s kicking and quarterback play, there is nothing other than great weather that should threaten the under.
Baltimore Ravens Betting Trend to Know
Oddsmakers have thought highly of the Ravens, who have failed to cover NFL odds. They are 6-8-1 against the spread and 4-11 on over/under. They are 5-2 straight up at home.
This season they are 4-7 as favorites against the spread, including 4-5 when favored by 6.5 points or less.
Most Profitable Players of this Matchup to Bet On
- Mark Andrews
The Ravens’ tight end had a strong six weeks to open the season but has not gained more than 63 receiving yards since. Getting Jackson back would make an over-prop appealing, but we’d feel good going under 55 or higher.
- Najee Harris
The Steelers’ offensive line continues to be an issue, and Harris has not been able to get going. He has two weeks where he’s finished top 15 in rushing, and he’s yet to hit the 100-yard mark. A touchdown prop is in play, though, as he has scored five touchdowns over his last six games.
- J.K. Dobbins
The Ravens running back had back-to-back 100-yard games but dropped to 59 rushing yards last week when the game script set up well for him. Now he goes against a difficult rush defense, and if Jackson is back, it likely means fewer touches. We’d feel comfortable going under 50 yards.
Odds breakdown – No player props were found at the time of writing.
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