To the surprise of the hockey universe, winger Johnny Gaudreau not only left the Calgary Flames in NHL free agency (citing the desire to play closer to home), but he also spurned the favorites in the NHL expert picks, the New Jersey Devils and Philadelphia Flyers.
Instead, the Salem, NJ native pulled one of the biggest turns in league history and inked a seven-year $68.25 million contract with the Columbus Blue Jackets.
Gaudreau Performance Recap
Gaudreau finished the 2021-22 season with 40 goals and 75 assists, becoming the first player to finish a season with 100+ points to leave in free agency since Wayne Gretzky in 1996.
It just doesn’t happen in the salary cap era, and especially not with the loyalty NHL teams and stars tend to have with each other.
So how did one of the NHL’s elite talents end up in Columbus, a team that has struggled throughout franchise history to reach the postseason?
Blue Jackets Were Surprise
While the move certainly came as a surprise, even the Blue Jackets were surprised when Johnny Gaudreau signed the deal.
Columbus has seen multiple talented players leave in recent years, earning a reputation for letting stars walk and as a place free agents don’t want to sign.
However, Gaudreau spoke highly of Columbus in his introductory press conference, instantly endearing himself to the Blue Jacket faithful.
Gaudreau’s Criteria
“I wanted to come here. This was always a place circled on my list,” He told the news during his news conference.
“I’m not really sure about any other players. We’re not talking about why people don’t want to Columbus; it’s not a topic in the locker room.
For me, I just heard so many great things from former players, and it made me feel really comfortable with my decision to come here.”
“I think there’s a lot of potentials,” Gaudreau added. “I thought it was a good spot for me personally. We can have a lot of success here.
They’ve got good players on this team. And I’m really looking forward to jumping in with this group. I’ve heard a lot of great things.
They’re a close-knit group, and that’s who you want to play with are guys who get along in the locker room and love coming to the rink and working together every single day, and it’s just a healthy environment to be around, and that’s exciting to me.”
Impact on Calgary Flames
The Flames’ NHL betting odds take a nosedive after Johnny Gaudreau’s departure, but they may have even bigger problems on their hands than figuring out how to replace their star scorer.
Gaudreau’s linemate Matthew Tkachuk, a restricted free agent himself, has thus far been unable to work out a long-term deal to stay in Calgary.
Tkachuk finished the 2021-22 campaign with 42 goals and 62 assists and is expected to be a major piece of the Flames’ future; however, rumors have been circling that Tkachuk asked for a trade.
Calgary Next Season Expectations
Calgary cruised to a Pacific Division title with a 50-21-11 record last season, but if Gaudreau and Tkachuk don’t stick around, repeating as division champs will be difficult.
The Calgary Flames have just over $18 million in salary cap room, but much of that has been earmarked for Tkachuk and Andrew Mangiapane.
There are still a few talented free agents left unsigned, including Nazem Kadri, Nino Niederreiter, and Phil Kessel, but even if Calgary signed all three, they still may not match the combined production of Gaudreau and Tkachuk.
Blue Jackets Future Looks Bright
The Blue Jackets finished the 2021-22 season with a 37-38-7 record, good for sixth place in the Metro Division.
By virtue of the Seth Jones trade, Columbus held both the sixth overall pick in the 2022 Draft (from Chicago) and their own pick at 12th overall.
They used those picks to select defensemen David Jiříček and Denton Mateychuk, bolstering an already promising defensive core.
While Johnny Gaudreau’s signing severely impacts the Blue Jackets’ ability to re-sign Patrik Laine, general manager Jarmo Kekäläinen seemed confident both sides would work out a deal.
“When we realized that this was possible and realistic that we could get this done, we got to work,” Kekäläinen said.
“We were excited and we had to crunch numbers and look at different things, and we all agreed that we just can’t pass on an opportunity like this with a player of his caliber wanting to come here.”
Blue Jackets’ Cap Room
According to CapFriendly, the Blue Jackets have $2.3 million in cap room. Laine carried a $7.5 million cap hit last season and should exceed that amount in average annual value (AAV) on his next deal.
It will take some creative cap management to work things out, but Columbus becomes an immediate contender in the Eastern Conference if they can figure out a way to get Gaudreau and Laine on the same line.
Those two would likely have 2021 first-round pick Cole Sillinger as their center, creating a high-flying line that would be an NHL matchup’s nightmare.
Early NHL Picks
Early NHL betting picks have the Blue Jackets as a fringe playoff team. Their Stanley Cup odds went up from +10000 to +6000 following the Johnny Gaudreau signing.
Their implied win % is at 1.64. It’s still a ways off from the NHL betting stats favorite (and defending Stanley Cup champion) Colorado Avalanche, who have +425 odds to repeat as champs (their implied win % is 19.05).
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