The Toronto Maple Leafs have their third and fourth-string goalies on their active roster, while the Pittsburgh Penguins rotated their goalies until they snapped a nasty losing streak.
For their part, Toronto Maple Leafs had a winning streak that the Vegas Golden Knights snapped.
We’ll explore both NHL teams‘ recent performances, stats, and odds for our Penguins vs Maple Leafs betting analysis.
Puck drop for Pittsburgh vs Toronto is set for slightly after 7 P.M. from the Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Last Game Records
This is the first game on the 2022-23 NHL schedule between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Toronto Maple Leafs.
In the 2021-22 season, the Pittsburgh Penguins won the head-to-head series 2-1. Pittsburgh averaged 3.33 goals, while Toronto averaged 1.67 goals across the three games.
Matchup Information
- Game: Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
- Venue: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Game Time: Friday, November 11, 2022. 7:00 P.M. ET
- Watch: NHLPP|ESPN+
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Analysis
Pittsburgh Penguins
The Pittsburgh Penguins enter Friday night’s matchup with a 5-6-2 record. The Penguins’ record has them seventh in the Metropolitan Division NHL standings. A seven-game losing streak is responsible for the Penguins stats and rankings.
Performance Recap
In their last game, the Pittsburgh Penguins snapped that seven-game losing streak, defeating the Washington Capitals 4-1.
Jason Zucker opened the scoring in the second period, while Brock McGinn and Jeff Petry added goals to give Pittsburgh a 3-0 lead going into the third. Jason Zucker closed out the Capitals with an empty net goal.
Casey DeSmith made twenty-four saves to give Pittsburgh the victory because the seven-game losing streak has sent any Penguins’ goaltending rotation into disarray. As such, we have no idea whom Pittsburgh will start against Toronto.
Goalie Rotation
Further complicating the goalie rotation is that the Penguins are playing on back-to-back nights, meaning both goalies will likely start one of the following two games.
If Pittsburgh runs with momentum and starts DeSmith, he has a 1-3-1 record, with a 2.80 goals-against average and a .913 save percentage.
If Pittsburgh goes back to Tristan Jarry, who has the majority of the starts for the Penguins this season, he has a 4-3-1 record, with a 3.38 goals-against average and a .913 save percentage.
Penguins’ Points Leader
Sidney Crosby is the Penguins’ points leader with fifteen points (six goals, nine assists). Pittsburgh is averaging 3.54 goals per game and 3.46 goals against.
The Penguins’ powerplay is converting on 18.8% of their chances, scoring nine powerplay goals. The penalty kill has only killed off 75.6% of the Pens’ penalties this season, giving up eleven goals.
Toronto Maple Leafs
The Toronto Maple Leafs always have heightened expectations entering any NHL season. It comes with the territory of being the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Maple Leafs’ Offense
The Maple Leafs’ offense struggled to start the season, although the Maple Leafs enter Friday night’s game with a 7-4-3 record. Toronto had a three-game winning streak snapped in their last game.
Since he’s joined the league, you’d expect Auston Matthews to be near the top of the NHL player stats rankings.
Matthews’ Struggle
Matthews struggled to start the season, and the Maple Leafs’ goals-per-game average has suffered as well. Toronto is averaging 2.86 goals per game and 2.71 goals against per game.
In their last game, the Toronto Maple Leafs lost 4-3 in overtime to the league-best Vegas Golden Knights. Timothy Liljegren scored his first two goals of the season, Mitchell Marner scored his third for the Maple Leafs, and Erik Kallgren made sixteen saves in the loss.
Who Was the Maple Leafs’ Goalie?
We don’t fault you for not knowing Kallgren’s name yet, as the Maple Leafs goaltending situation has been a nightmare this season.
Check the NHL Injury Report, and you’ll find both of the Maple Leafs’ top goalies in the injured reserve: Ilya Samsonov and Matt Murray.
We expect Toronto to continue to roll with Kallgren in net over Keith Petruzzelli, who has never played an NHL game. Kallgren has a 1-1-3 record, with a 2.99 goals-against average and a .890 save percentage.
Maple Leafs’ Goaltending Situation
The Maple Leafs’ goaltending situation is among the most important information we can relay in our Penguins vs Maple Leafs betting analysts.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are led in scoring by Mitchell Marner, who has sixteen points (three goals, thirteen assists).
The Maple Leafs’ powerplay is converting on 25% of their opportunities, scoring twelve goals so far, while the penalty killers could improve, giving up 12 powerplay goals and operating at 76%.
NHL Injury Report
For the Penguins, Teddy Blueger remains on the injury reserve. Jake Muzzin, Matt Murray, Illya Samsonov, and Rodion Amirov are all on the IR for the Leafs.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Preview
Moneyline
The Toronto Maple Leafs are the moneyline favorite, listed with odds ranging from -150 to -160. The Pittsburgh Penguins are the moneyline underdog, listed from +129 and +135.
The Maple Leafs have a 7-7 record on the moneyline, while the Penguins have a 5-8 moneyline record.
Puckline
The puck line spread is set to 1.5 goals. The Pittsburgh Penguins are listed at +1.5 goals, with odds ranging from -190 to -200. Toronto is listed at -1.5 on the puck line spread, with odds from +145 to +160.
Both teams’ records against the spread are important for this Penguins vs Maple Leafs betting analysis. In particular, the fact that neither team has a good record against the spread.
The Maple Leafs are 3-11 against the spread, while the Penguins have a better record at 5-8 against the spread.
Total
The total goals line is set to the NHL standard 6.5 goals, with the over listed between -110 and -118 and the under listed between -104 and -110. Pittsburgh has a 7-6 over/under record, while Toronto is 4-9 on the over/under.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Prediction
Our Penguins vs Maple Leafs prediction is to take the Pittsburgh Penguins to winnow the moneyline and cover the spread.
The Toronto Maple Leafs shouldn’t be the betting favorite on the moneyline, especially considering their goaltending situation.
After reading this Penguins vs Maple Leafs betting analysis, we’re sure you agree, and we’re all taking the Penguins on the moneyline with +150 – +160 odds.
At the same time, if we’re taking the Penguins on the moneyline, we’d be silly not to take the Penguins to cover the spread at +1.5.
Who to Bet On?
Our Penguins vs Maple Leafs betting analysis has us taking the Penguins to win and cover the spread with very favorable odds.
The Penguins have the better goaltending and have been better offensively this season, so we have to pick Pittsburgh to defeat the Toronto Maple Leafs.
NHL Pick: Penguins +1.5 (-190)
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