Overview
The biggest rivalry in CONCACAF is back as Mexico hosts the United States in FIFA World Cup Qualifying.
There’s no love lost between these neighbors who have had some epic battles throughout the years. This time around, they are battling for second place in the qualifying standings, with Canada out in front by four points.
Neither team can directly qualify with a win on Thursday or be eliminated with a loss, and arguably a draw helps both teams equally. However, if one of the sides manages a win, while both Costa Rica and Panama lose their games, that team can book their tickets to Qatar.
The top three teams in the standings qualify directly, with the fourth-place team going to a playoff. Heading into Thursday’s games, Canada lead the group with 25 points, Mexico and the USA are at 21, Panama has 17, and Costa Rica has 16. The other three sides have been eliminated.
Last games records
In the first matchup of this qualifying round, the US grabbed another Dos y Cero, or 2-0 win back in November. The Americans have won the last three contests with a 1-0 win in extra time in the Gold cup final in August and a 3-2 extra-time win in the Nations League final in June. All three of those games were in the United States.
All-time Mexico leads the series 36-22 with 15 draws, but the US is 17-9 with six draws since the turn of the century. The teams have drawn the last two qualifying cycles in Mexico with a 0-0 game in the 2014 qualifiers, and a 1-1 draw four years later. The US has only won once in 13 trips to Mexico City, and that came in a friendly back in 2013 as they are 0-5 with three draws at Estadio Azteca in World Cup qualifiers.
Matchup Information
- Thursday, March 24. 10:00 p.m. ET
- Mexico City, Mexico
- Estadio Azteca
Mexico vs United States Betting Analysis
Mexico Betting Analysis
After a slow start to the campaign, Mexico is closing in on an eighth straight World Cup appearance. They took seven of a possible nine points from the last qualifying window, beating Jamaica and Panama while drawing against Costa Rica. It wasn’t pretty, though, as they trailed Jamaica in the 80th minute before scoring twice and then scored a penalty with 10 minutes to play against Panama.
Manager Gerardo Martino has been under pressure all cycle, with his team needing late goals to win games. Losing back-to-back games to Canada and the United States in November didn’t help matters either.
The good news is that Mexico hasn’t lost at Estadio Azteca since a 2-1 defeat to Honduras in 2013. They will also host El Salvador next week, after a trip to Honduras. That lightens the pressure a little bit since both of those teams have nothing to play for except pride.
Wolverhampton striker Raul Jimenez scored the winning goal against Panama and is now tied for eighth all-time with 29 goals for Mexico. Henry Martin and Alexis Vega both scored in the win at Jamaica and look to continue their form.
Among the players having good domestic seasons are Jesus Corona at Sevilla and Hirving Lozano at Napoli. Lozano has four goals and three assists in Serie A as Napoli sit in second place, while Corona has two assists in his nine games since joining the La Liga side.
Guillermo Ochoa will get the start in goal for Mexico, his 126th. The Club America star posted 11 clean sheets in 25 starts in Liga MX for the 2021-22 season.
United States Betting Analysis
The United States missed out on the 2018 World Cup and are desperate to head to Qatar this time around. Manager Gregg Berhalter has a very young side, and they have struggled on the road, especially in qualifying. Two of the final three games are away from home, with Thursday’s game and then a trip to Costa Rica on the final matchday.
Berhalter has blended the MLS players with those getting big-game experience in Europe throughout the qualifying campaign. Having a healthy Christian Pulisic is a great place to start when picking a lineup, and the Chelsea man scored in both legs of the recent Champions League quarterfinal win over Lille.
Finding the partner to Pulisic has been the challenge, with no one really stepping up and showing chemistry with the US captain. Teenager Ricardo Pepi may be that player as he enjoyed massive success in 2021 for club and country. But so far, he’s yet to score in six games since making the move to Bundesliga side Augsburg.
It is possible that Jordan Pefok gets the chance. He leads the Swiss Super League in scoring with 17 goals for Young Boys. Another option is Pepi’s former FC Dallas teammate Jesus Ferreira who has three goals in the first four MLS game this season.
The US has gotten goals from other sources with five different goal scorers in their last five tallies. Even defenders Walker Zimmerman and Antonee Robinson got in on the act so far in the qualifying. The US has shown they are very dangerous on set pieces, especially corners.
Updates
The US have been hurt by injuries for this match. They are ready to welcome Gio Reyna back to the squad, but starters Weston McKennie, Matt Turner, and Sergiño Dest are all out, as is Brenden Aaronson.
Berhalter will likely choose Zach Steffen to start in goal for Turner, and his choices to replace McKennie and Dest are key.
Mexico, on the other hand, enters this game relatively healthy, and Moreno has a full squad to choose from.
- Mexico has not allowed a goal in their last three home games
- The US has scored just once in their last three road games in this cycle
- Mexico hasn’t scored in the last two games against the US
- Mexico has scored in nine of the 11 games in this qualifying cycle
- The US has just one clean sheet away from home since 2020, and that was a 0-0 draw at El Salvador
Mexico vs United States Betting Preview
Every time these teams meet, it is a hard-fought battle, and the goals are hard to come by. The sides know each other so well and never want to give up an inch in play. For the US, it comes down to not making the big mistake and also taking advantage of the opportunities when they come, which they have done lately against Mexico.
For Mexico, they have the experience, and they have the massive home-field advantage. They need to tire out the United States and use the elevation to their advantage. Moreno’s side has been excellent late in games lately, and the longer they can hold the young US team scoreless, the better the chances they get a mistake to pounce on.
Mexico vs United States Betting Prediction
Looking at the sports betting guides, Mexico is the favorite at -110. The United States is +285 to take all three points, and a draw is +245.
The total goals is 2.5, with the over at +130 and the under at -170. Both teams to score is +100.
The top expected goal scorer is Jimenez at +175 for Mexico, while Pepi is the top American at +250.
As for the FIFA world cup qualifiers predictions; Mexico 1, United States 1. Under 2.5 goals.
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