Ever since Alex Pereira made his debut in the promotion back in 2021, it seemed that this matchup was making its way into UFC news all the way up until it was made. Adesanya lost his belt to Pereira last year. That’s why this rematch has turned into one of the biggest fights of the year.
Follow along for a full betting analysis and Pereira vs Adesanya prediction heading into this weekend’s UFC 287.
Alex Pereira vs. Israel Adesanya Information
Alex Pereira vs Israel Adesanya
Location of the fight: Miami-Dade Arena, Miami, FL.
Date and Time: April 8, 2023, 10:00 PM ET.
How to Watch: ESPN+
Alex Pereira vs. Israel Adesanya Last Fight Record
Pereira and Adesanya met each other in the octagon at Madison Square Garden last November to settle a kickboxing rivalry on the biggest stage in MMA. Alex Pereira came away victorious via 5th-round TKO and now holds the UFC middleweight belt.
Pereira vs. Adesanya Betting Analysis
Alex Pereira Facts to Know
Pereira is only 7-1 in his MMA career. This is very rare to see with someone at the top of their division, but given his world-class kickboxing career. Pereira was able to be fast-tracked to all the fights needed to become champion.
Pereira has six KO wins in his MMA career. He also averages an impressive 5.23 significant strikes landed per minute inside the octagon while only absorbing 3.63. With such a small sample size in the promotion, it is very difficult to use any of these numbers as a real indication of how he performs.
Israel Adesanya Facts to Know
The long-time reigning middleweight champion has had one of the most dominant careers in MMA history so far. He is 23-2 as an MMA fighter, with both his losses coming in world title fights. This will be his 10th straight UFC title fight this weekend.
With all that time in the octagon, Adesanya averages 3.93 significant strikes landed per minute while only absorbing 2.80. With this atmosphere being second nature to Adesanya, will it be a problem for Pereira as this is only his 3rd time being featured on a poster for the UFC schedule?
Updates
No injuries have been reported to the UFC of the Florida Athletic Commission.
Alex Pereira vs. Israel Adesanya Betting Preview
Before getting to a Pereira vs Adesanya prediction, let’s preview the betting lines and possible outcomes for this bout.
The interesting thing about this fight is that you don’t need to look at anything past their last meeting. Nothing matters because they both don’t fight anybody else the same way they fight each other. Also, their last meeting is so fresh in each other’s minds.
UFC odds have Adesanya as the slight betting favorite at -135, even though he lost the belt in their last meeting. Oddsmakers know that Adesanya was on his way to a victory if he had been able to survive that 5th round.
For this fight to go the distance, the line is set at +125. That is interesting because of the ridiculous power Pereira has in his hands, as well as knowing Adesanya can hurt him badly.
The “winning inside the distance” prop betting lines are set at +155 for Pereira and +275 for Adesanya. It seems pretty clear that Pereira’s path to victory would be finishing Adesanya again.
Alex Pereira vs. Israel Adesanya Betting Prediction
With a massive event like this weekend, it is almost impossible to make the best UFC picks possible. So many things can happen once that octagon gate closes.
The official Pereira vs Adesanya prediction is that Adesanya will get his hand raised and regain his spot at the top of the middleweight division. Be ready for this to be a very intense chess match between two of the best kickboxers to ever do it.
The big factor will be the wrestling attack of Adesanya. If he can keep constant pressure on Pereira throughout the 25 minutes, mixing in level changes and clinching up against the fence, it will be a very tough night for the Brazilian champion.
- If you want to bet on Pereira and believe in his skills and power, having him win via TKO/KO at +200 is a must-play.
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