UFC events in front of a live crowd still feel like a treat every time we get to see one. This Fight Night card will be in front of a packed Theater at Virgin Hotels in Las Vegas, which is a step up from the usual APEX events held in Vegas.
Read along for an in-depth look at the betting analysis, preview, and for the official Yan vs Dvalishvili betting prediction before you finish your betting slate ahead of this weekend.
Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili Information
Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili
Location: The Theater at Virgin Hotels, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States.
Date and Time: March 11, 2023. 6 PM ET
How to Watch: ESPN+
Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili Last Fight Record
Yan is looking to bounce back from back-to-back razor-close losses to Sterling and O’Malley in 2022.
Dvalishvili is on his way up the rankings, riding an 8-fight winning streak going into this one. His last fight result was a unanimous decision win over UFC legend Jose Aldo in August.
Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili Betting Analysis
Petr Yan Facts to Know
Even after losing three of his last four bouts, Petr Yan is still ranked as the No.1 contender in the UFC bantamweight division. This tells you all you need to know about how skilled he is and how much the voters respect where he is in the stacked bantamweight division.
Yan has a 50% finish rate in his professional career, including seven KO victories. It’s no secret that Yan has some of the slickest boxing in the UFC, with his title of “master in sport” of boxing that he earned in his home country of Russia. To back up the talk of his striking skills, Yan holds an average of 5.31 significant strikes landed per minute in the octagon.
With Dvalishvili meeting him in the octagon, Yan knows that he needs to be able to defend takedowns for all 25 minutes. That had to be a major focus in this training camp, and Yan already has an incredible 90% takedown defense in his UFC career and a statistic of 1.86 takedowns landed per 15 minutes in the cage.
Merab Dvalishvili Facts to Know
No matter how much negativity you see about Dvalishvili’s fighting style on social media, he is a savage inside the octagon and has used that fighting style to rise to the top of the division; by simply winning. With only four finishes in his career, piling up wins was the only way he was going to find himself in this position.
Dvalishvili fights with an overpowering pressure and volume that no fighter has been able to handle in the last few years. He averages 4.21 significant strikes landed per minute while only absorbing 2.31.
Where his numbers really jump out at you is in the grappling department. Dvalishvili averages 6.54 takedowns scored per 15 minutes in the octagon and has a 78% takedown defense of his own. The pressure, along with the wrestling, is surely going to be his game plan once again heading into the biggest fight of his career.
Updates
No injuries were reported to the NSAC.
Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili Betting Preview
Before placing any bets on the UFC this weekend, let’s break down this main event matchup and the betting lines involved with it.
UFC odds have Petr Yan as the -255 betting favorite over the rising contender this weekend. Even though they both have very different results on their record recently, oddsmakers have confidence in Yan to get the job done.
With this moneyline, Yan has still yet to be an underdog in his UFC career. Dvalishvili has a lot of value as a +215 underdog right before the lines are set to close. With how dominant he has been in the last few years, those underdog odds seem almost too easy to pick this weekend.
Possible Outcomes of Yan vs. Dvalishvili Bout
Also, before the Yan vs Dvalishvili betting prediction, let’s take a look at the possible outcomes of this bout. I have a feeling that Yan is very anti-judges after taking a few very close decision losses in his last few fights. Be prepared to watch Yan come out with a new aggression in the early rounds.
That aggression of Yan will need to be great to take control of the pace of this fight. Dvalishvili seems to be an impossible opponent to control. He fights with nonstop, relentless pressure that usually breaks his opponent both mentally and physically by the end of the third round.
The key to this fight is that it is set for five rounds. Can Dvalishvili keep that pace for 25 minutes? Or will Petr Yan just need to survive three rounds and run away with the fight in the 4th and 5th? All these question marks are what makes UFC predictions so difficult to make.
Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili Betting Prediction
After doing the research and breaking down film on this matchup, it is pretty easy to see that Petr Yan is the better fighter; and quite frankly, it isn’t that close. That might be weird to hear if you don’t know much about Dvalishvili and see his ranking, but this is a unique situation.
The odds won’t lie; Yan is the betting favorite for a reason. His boxing, Muay Thai, and wrestling skills are so high-level and slick that I don’t see Dvalishvili being able to ride it his way to a decision victory.
You are going to get to see an angry, motivated Petr Yan in the octagon on Saturday. On top of that, Dvalishvili has been talking in the media this week and saying this fight is personal while going after Yan’s country and even his own character.
For the official Yan vs Dvalishvili betting prediction, it is going to have to be Yan getting his hand raised on Saturday. The moneyline doesn’t have much value, so take a look at Yan finishing the fight in the later rounds or by decision.
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