The main event this weekend on the UFC schedule is this flyweight matchup between Matheus Nicolau and Alex Perez. Perez is stepping up on short notice for an injured Manel Kape and Nicolau is trying to keep his spot atop a wide-open flyweight division.
Nicolau vs. Perez Picks
- Pick: Nicolau ML -175.
Continue reading for the Nicolau vs Perez betting analysis and prediction ahead of placing any bets on the upcoming UFC fights this weekend.
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Nicolau vs. Perez Information
Matheus Nicolau vs Alex Perez
Location of the game: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
Date & Time: April 27, 2024. 7 PM ET Main card start
Where to Watch: ESPN+
Last Fight Record
Nicolau is looking to bounce back from a heart-breaking first-round KO loss to recent title challenger Brandon Royval last year.
Perez is looking to quickly bounce back from his recent decision loss to Muhammad Mokaev in March.
Nicolau vs Perez Betting Analysis
Matheus Nicolau
Nicolau is a Brazilian mixed martial artist with a professional record of 19-3-1, including 5 TKO/KO wins and 5 submissions under his belt at the age of 31. He is a black belt in BJJ and is currently the #5 flyweight contender in the world.
Nicolau is listed as a 5’6” orthodox fighter with a 66” reach. In the octagon, Nicolau averages 3.66 significant strikes landed per minute while absorbing 3.14 per minute. He has a very solid 66% striking defense while landing 1.48 takedowns per 15 minutes. He also excels at defending takedowns, doing so at a stellar 93% clip over his UFC career.
Alex Perez
Perez is an American mixed martial artist with a record of 24-8 in professional MMA, including 5 TKO/KO victories and 7 submissions so far at 32 years old. He is a Dana White’s Contender Series alum who is now the #8 ranked flyweight in the world. He has won two Performance of the Night bonuses in the UFC and is looking to get back into the winning column after suffering three straight losses at the top of the division, including a title fight.
Perez, an orthodox fighter, stands at 5’6” and possesses skills all around. He has a 65” reach and averages only 6:38 of fight time in the octagon. He also lands 4.12 significant strikes per minute and absorbs only 3.14. His best attribute is his wrestling, averaging 2.26 takedowns per 15 minutes and holding an 82% takedown defense.
Updates
No reports of injuries have reached the UFC or ESPN.
Nicolau vs. Perez Betting Preview
You can’t make UFC bets without laying out the matchup with this Nicolau vs Perez betting analysis, previewing the betting lines, and studying the styles that each fighter brings to the octagon.
Starting with the UFC odds, Nicolau is coming in as the -175 betting favorite over the +150 Perez. The over/under is set at 4.5 rounds and this fight is favored to end inside the distance at -160.
Making Nicolau betting predictions requires more than just numbers. The style he brings is an interesting matchup for Perez and many other flyweights. He is elite at using his footwork to move around the cage, confusing and frustrating opponents.
Perez is more of an American-style MMA fighter–wrestling with heavy low kicks and some underrated power in his hands. The low kicks will be a massive factor in this match-up and something that deserves a lot of attention from the start.
Something that isn’t mentioned in the Perez betting analysis above is his inactivity over the recent years, and how he is bouncing back about a month since his last fight. Getting right back in there might be good for him, but it’s concerning.
Nicolau vs. Perez Betting Prediction
The Nicolau vs Perez betting analysis doesn’t do you any favors in understanding this match of styles. There’s a good chance that this is going to be an uneventful fight between two men who didn’t have much time to prepare for each other.
Even with the wide stance from Nicolau and the leg kicks from Perez, we are going with Nicolau to get his hand raised on Saturday night. It’s difficult to bet on Perez coming off of three straight losses to only face a top-5 fighter in the world.
This is a very close fight on paper, but the skills of Nicolau outmatch the skills of Perez over 25 minutes.
- Pick: Nicolau ML -175.
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