The Dallas Wings are in a battle for a playoff spot and have a golden opportunity for an “upset” when they host the Washington Mystics (17-11) at 8 p.m. ET on Thursday.
Dallas (12-15) is one of four teams separated by a half-a-game with only three playoff spots to fill. A pair of teams with 10 wins also threaten the season-ending Aug. 14.
WNBA Odds for Today
The Mystics have been among the best in basketball this season but may not have their star, Elena Delle Donne, who is listed doubtful for Thursday’s game due to rest.
Washington has a three-game buffer before catching up to the “group of 12” win teams, so it can afford to have its 32-year-old, 6-foot-5 versatile forward sit.
It does make basketball betting tricky though as the Wings are slight favorites at -1 with the Mystics at +1. The over/under is set at 160.5.
It’s nearly a pick ‘em on the moneyline with the Wings -120 and Mystics +100. That equates to Delle Donne being valued at several wins by herself, which is probably true but is harder to put a value on in women’s basketball with players often in and out of lineups.
Washington Mystics vs. Dallas Wings Stats
Mystics Stats
Washington has been strong defensively, allowing 75.0 points per game, the fewest in the WNBA. Although they are fourth in holding teams to a 42.7% shot conversion rate and 33.3% on 3-pointers. It’s really about pacing more than standout defense.
Their offense ranks ninth at 79.5 points per game, and they aren’t all that efficient either. They convert 43.4% of field goal attempts, ranking sixth, but are ninth in 3-point percentage at 33.8% and free throw percentage at 77.6%.
If they can dictate the tempo, the Mystics may be able to steal one without Delle Donne. Someone other than guards Ariel Atkins and Natasha Cloud will have to step up.
Mystics’ Guards
Atkins is the second leading scorer at 14.8 points per game while Cloud, the point guard, averages 10.9 points and 7.0 assists per contest. Without Delle Donne, 17.4 points and 6.2 rebounds per game will have to be covered.
That’s especially important given the Mystics won the rebounding margin in the two previous meetings against Dallas.
Perhaps it is 6-5 Shakira Austin who will step up or fellow forwards Tianna Hawkins and Myisha Hines-Allen.
Wings Stats
League average – that has gotten the Wings in the mix for a playoff spot, looking to appear in consecutive seasons for the first time since 2017 and 2018.
A franchise that is 3-1 in WNBA Finals appearances – all with the Detroit Shock – and came to the Dallas metroplex in 2016 from Tulsa is starved for success, not advancing past the first round since leaving Tulsa.
This iteration of the Wings is sixth, scoring 82.1 points per game and allowing 82.7 points per game, and is seemingly stuck in mediocrity.
Wings Offense
The offense isn’t great, converting 42.7% of field goal attempts, which ranks ninth, and 34.2% of 3-point attempts, and 77.9% of free throw attempts, each ranking eighth.
Defensively they have the third worst shooting percentage allowed of 45.5% but are third in limiting opponents to 32.6% on 3-pointers.
Wings’ Guard
The Wings have great guard play with Olympian Arike Ogunbowale scoring 19.9 points per game. Allisha Gray and Marina Mabrey are also in double figures.
They have a size in the frontcourt with 6-7 center Teaira McCowan. One of the disappointments in the frontcourt is Charli Collier, the once-dominant big at the University of Texas and former No. 1 overall pick, is hardly cracking the rotation at 4 minutes, 25 seconds on average in 14 contests.
Matchup Betting Trends
Early returns on WNBA picks favor the Mystics. Data show 61% of public bets are on the Mystics with 73% of the money off data made available. Then 54% are on the over.
History suggests the under hits since it is 4-1 in the last five meetings. The Wings are also 7-2 against the spread in their last nine matchups with the Mystics.
In the two May meetings, each road team won. The Wings were 7.5 point underdogs when they won 94-86 with over 159.5 converting.
WNBA Score Record
The Mystics were 84-68 winners and easily covered a 3.5-point spread as road favorites with the under of 161 hittings.
Though they are below .500 straight up, the Wings are 16-10-1 against the spread and 16-11 on over/under this season. Meanwhile, the Mystics are 18-10 against the spread and 9-19 on over/under.
Matchup Predictions
Fourth leading scorer Satou Sabally is out indefinitely for the Wings, so her status is one to watch along with Delle Donne’s.
This game should come down to great guard play on both sides and one of the best pure scorers (Ogunbowale) is on Dallas’ side which is reason enough to give them a slight edge. Still, they’re going to have to execute against a Mystics team that tries to drag the pace down.
The under hitting would be a good thing for the Mystics, and without Delle Donne in the lineup is probably more likely than not. Check the injury reports but regardless, we’re grabbing Mystics +1 and +100 on the moneyline.
WNBA Pick: Wings -1 (-110)
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