On July 30, UFC 277 will be taking place in Dallas, Texas. This will be the UFC’s second PPV event in the month of July.
An incredible fight slotted as the co-main event is the interim flyweight title bout between former champion Brandon Moreno (19-6-2) and Kai Kara-France (24-9).
Brandon Moreno vs. Kai Kara-France Stats
Moreno Stats
Brandon Moreno has had one of the most storied professional fighting careers in UFC history. From starting in the UFC at a young age to getting cut, and then getting his second chance and making the most of it.
Moreno has become one of the quickest, most technical boxers in the UFC. His standup game has been great, but he also has a very solid wrestling side to his fight game. He averages 3.54 significant strikes per minute in his UFC career, along with a 39% striking accuracy.
To go along with those striking numbers, he carries a 1.84 average takedowns stat line per 15 minutes inside the octagon. His takedown accuracy is 47%, along with a solid 69% takedown defense line.
Kara-France Stats
Comparing Moreno, Kara-France has a better significant strike landed per minute line at 4.84 strikes. He also has a 40% striking accuracy, with a nice significant strike defense percentage at 65%.
His offensive wrestling is not as great as Moreno’s, but Kara-France averages 0.43 takedowns per fight, with an elite 86% takedown defense rate in the UFC. This is proof that this fight will most likely stay on the feet between these two killers.
Kara-France’s only submission loss in the UFC is against Brandon Royval. Other than that fight, you never really see him on the ground.
Moreno vs. Kara-France Betting Trends
- The opening line to this bout had Moreno at a -160 favorite.
- Kai Kara-France is now a bigger underdog as of right now at +180, a -9.7% trend.
- In their first matchup inside the octagon back in 2019, Kara-France was the favorite in closing lines at -160.
Moreno vs. Kara-France Betting Picks
A UFC 277 betting analysis is an interesting task with two title fights on the same card. Not many times will you ever see this on the UFC schedule, two rematch title fights on the same card.
Particularly in this co-main event, Brandon Moreno and Kai Kara-France have already faced each other back in 2019, way before they developed into the elite fighters they are today.
According to MMA odds, Brandon Moreno is a -200 favorite right now. This is the biggest favorite he has ever been inside the UFC. I think the oddsmakers are not taking the danger that Kai Kara-France possesses into account.
Kara-France at the UFC Odds
He has one of the best teams in the world at City Kickboxing in New Zealand, and they will have an elite game plan to match up with Moreno on Saturday.
UFC odds have had Kara-France as an underdog in a lot of his bouts. He is often overlooked by the oddsmakers, and I think his last few performances should have earned him some serious respect. He is going to give Moreno just as big of a test as Figueiredo did.
I predict this fight to go the distance and be one of the best fights of the year. Both men have great durability, heart, and skills to put on a show.
But I think Moreno gets the job done and reclaims his much-deserved title at UFC flyweight. UFC picks are always difficult to make, especially at this high level of fighting that we will see on Saturday.
Who to Bet On?
To conclude, look for MMA odds and picks at your local sportsbooks and try to make the highest valued bet possible. -200 for Moreno doesn’t have too much value, but look for prop bets like the over/under 3.5 rounds or a “fight will go the distance” prop as well.
Anything can happen inside the cage, but I believe that both fighters will go to war for 25 minutes on Saturday night.
UFC Pick: Moreno 4.5 (+130)
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