Opening up the pay-per-view portion of UFC 282, we have a big-time featherweight matchup between undefeated fighters Bryce Mitchell (15-0) and Ilia Topuria (12-0). This top-15 matchup is one of the most underrated fights on the UFC schedule.
Read along for a Mitchell vs Topuria betting analysis and prediction on how this fight could play out.
Last Fight Record
Mitchell is coming off the biggest win of his career against MMA legend Edson Barboza via unanimous decision in March of 2022.
Topuria is riding the momentum from one of the craziest KO’s of the year over a very skilled Jai Herbert at the London event earlier this year.
Mitchell vs. Topuria Betting Analysis
Bryce Mitchell
Bryce “Thug Nasty” Mitchell is clearly one of the most interesting upcoming contenders in the UFC. His impressive 15-0 record has had some of the most dominant performances we have seen since Khabib Nurmagomedov’s rise. Mitchell’s grappling skills stand out among his peers thus far.
Mitchell averages 13:13 of fight time in his UFC career, meaning he goes to the scorecards the majority of time since he has been in the promotion.
For not being known for his striking, he is very efficient in that department; landing 2.28 strikes per minute while only absorbing 1.39. His striking accuracy is currently at an impressive 63%.
Thug Nasty averages an impressive 3.40 takedowns per 15 minutes in the octagon at a 53% accuracy. He has surprisingly low 33% takedown defense in the UFC, being taken down 8 times total in the promotion. Mitchell also attempts 1.9 submissions per fight, but only has one finish in his UFC career.
Ilia Topuria
Ilia Topuria has had a quick rise to the top 15 of a strong featherweight division at the age of 25. He carries a much higher finish rate than Mitchell, having 4 KO’s and 7 submission victories in his 12-fight MMA career. He is 4-0 in the UFC with 3 KO victories.
Topuria brings a decent amount of pressure in the striking department with 2.87 strikes landed per minute, but he also absorbs 2.28 strikes.
This means he is willing to take a shot to land shot. He has a 64% striking defense rate, which is for sure in the upper quartile of UFC fighters with as many fights.
The Spaniard martial artist has great knockout power, but the most impressive stats come from his grappling side of skills.
Topuria averages 3.15 takedowns per 15 minutes, and has a perfect 100% takedown defense. He also has averaged 2.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes in his UFC career.
Updates
No injuries reported to NSAC for the ufc fight schedule in the leadup to UFC 282.
Topuria is fighting on the same card as Paddy Pimblett for the second straight event. Last time he was infamously hit by a hand sanitizer bottle and called out Pimblett after his KO victory in London.
Bryce Mitchell vs. Ilia Topuria Betting Preview
After breaking down the Mitchell vs Topuria betting analysis, it is clear to see that this fight is very evenly matched. Both are rising contenders in the featherweight division and have not tasted defeat yet in their professional MMA careers.
UFC odds have Topuria as a -135 favorite over the +115 underdog Mitchell. Topuria (-135) presents more paths to a finish than Mitchell, which is probably why oddsmakers give him the slight edge.
For prop bets, Mitchell has a +350 line to win inside the distance, while Topuria has odds of +195 to do the same. It is clear to see that if there is a finish in this bout, it will most likely go to Topuria with his power and aggressive submission skills.
Topuria has arguably the most power in his hands than anybody in the whole featherweight division. We have seen him remove fighters from consciousness with one punch multiple times in the UFC.
On top of that power, he sets those clean shots up by using slick boxing combinations to the body.
We all know that Mitchell’s game plan will be to wrestle. He is severely outmatched if this fight stays on the feet and turns into a striking battle.
Mitchell will need to set up his level-changes very well to get past the strong takedown defense of Topuria.
Even if Mitchell gets Topuria on the ground, he will need to be very careful in all positions as there will be submission threats thrown up at him constantly.
Bryce Mitchell vs. Ilia Topuria Betting Predictions
After taking in all the possible outcomes and the Mitchell vs Topuria betting analysis, breaking down the statistics of these top-15 featherweights, there is only one prediction that would make sense.
Ilia Topuria is going to come out victorious on Saturday night. Making UFC picks is very challenging with such a close fight, but Topuria deserves all the praise he receives and makes a tough fight for Mitchell.
What makes Topuria such a dangerous fighter is his all-around skills. He is more explosive, powerful, and more complete of a fighter than Mitchell.
Even if Mitchell does what he likes to do and takes this fight to the ground in the first and controls it from top position, the live betting odds in round 2 won’t change at all because Topuria has the great equalizer on his side.
Look for Topuria to set up an uppercut when Mitchell shoots for a takedown. This is going to be a shot that is there, and Topuria has surely drilled that thousands of times in this training camp leading up to UFC 282.
Topuria is going to be able to compete in the wrestling exchanges and create scrambles with Mitchell, all the while threatening with submissions.
When the fight is on the feet, Topuria will be hunting down his opponent like always; looking for that big clean right hand to land.
Topuria wants all the big fights in the UFC, and a spectacular performance against an undefeated top-10 fighter will propel him into the bigger fights that he wants. Getting Topuria at -135 odds is incredible value for someone as dangerous as him.
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