San Francisco took a different loss to the Tennessee Titans on several fronts last week. The 49ers blew a double-digit lead to lose in the final seconds and may be without quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo moving forward.
Garoppolo suffered a torn UCL on his throwing hand and may be out this weekend. Houston, meanwhile, had an eyebrow-raising, 12-point victory over the playoff-contending Los Angeles chargers.
Texans at 49ers Betting Analysis
On the Houston side
The Texans may be 4-11, but they aren’t rolling over for anyone. Rookie quarterback Davis Mills has shown signs of being a component NFL signal-caller and threw for 254 yards and two touchdowns for the Chargers.
Everything Houston did against Los Angeles seemed to work as running back Rex Burkhead rushed for 6.8 yards per carry, compiling 149 yards and two touchdowns on 22 carries.
Houston has now won back-to-back games for the first time this season. Going for a third win for the first time this season will be a quest aided by 13 players returning from the COVID-19 list. The Texans’ offense showing some life has been a nice change for a unit that didn’t have much consistency this year.
Houston is only averaging 16.1 points per game. The Texans’ have especially struggled with the run game. Burkhead’s performance last week vaulted him into being the team’s leading rusher.
On the San Francisco side
The loss to the Tennessee Titans put a lot of pressure on the 49ers to beat the Texans with a game looming against the NFC West division-leading Rams in Week 18. San Francisco will get an opportunity to see what they have in first-round draft pick Trey Lance under center.
Lance’s only other start came in a Week 5 17-10 loss to Arizona. In that game, Lance rushed for 89 yards and passed for 192 in addition to throwing an interception.
The 49ers will hope running back Jeff Wilson Jr. can take some of the pressure off of Lance. Wilson has led San Francisco in rushing in each of the past three games. San Francisco will have opportunities to open things up in the running game, as the Texans’ defense concedes 141.3 yards per game to their opponents.
Texans at 49ers Prediction
Sports betting sites have San Francisco as a 12.5 point favorite, with the over/under set at 44 points. This game will boil down to how well Houston can stack up San Francisco’s running attack. How much Lance has progressed will also decide who will be able to come away with a victory.
The over will be a good play here. While Mills’ performance last week may be an aberration, San Francisco will likely be able to put up points with its running game. If Houston can have the same balance on offense it did last week, expect the Texans to make San Francisco’s life difficult.