The PGA Tour betting season continues on its second leg of a three-tournament California trip, this weekend in Torrey Pines (South), for the Farmer’s Insurance Open. Patrick Reed ran away with this tournament last season, shooting a -14, five strokes better than Tony Finau and four other players that came in at -9 for the weekend.
Farmer’s Insurance Open Betting Preview
Reed is back to defend his crown, but it won’t be easy in a very talented field that includes Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, and Brooks Koepka. Six of the top 10 golfers in the OWGR are in action at Torrey Pines this weekend; here is a preview and some of the top golf betting picks for this event:
Jon Rahm +650
Nearly every metric favors Jon Rahm this weekend as he comes into Torrey Pines as the #1 ranked golfer in the world Rahm is 5th in the field in strokes gained (approach), 4th in strokes gained (putting), and 2nd in par 4’s of which there are six between 450-550 yards at Torrey Pines South.
Rahm has played two tournaments this month, finishing 2nd at the Sentry Tournament of Champions in Hawaii and 14th last week at the American Express in California. Six of his eight rounds in January have been below 70.
Bryson DeChambeau +1600
Torrey Pines South is a long course, so obviously, the biggest hitter in the game, Bryson DeChambeau, will have an advantage here. DeChambeau is #1 in the field in both driving distance and no coincidence in Par 5’s. All four par 5’s at Torrey Pines South are between 550-600 yards.
DeChambeau is no sure thing here, but that’s why his odds are 16:1. He’s missed both cuts in tournaments at Torrey Pines, and he’s got just a 14th, and 25th place finish in two tournaments this season. Even so, that driving distance at this long course is just too big of an advantage to pass up.
Justin Thomas +1600
The last big bet for the chalk favorites is Justin Thomas simply because he is playing great golf so far on this young season. Thomas has played sparingly, but when he shows up, he’s been solid, getting a 3rd place finish at the World Wide Technology Championship in November, coming in 5th at the Hero World Challenge in early December, and getting another 5th place finish at the Sentry Tournament of Champions.
Surprisingly Thomas hasn’t played at Torrey Pines since 2015, but he just seems locked in hitting 84% of greens in regulation with a 73.3% driving accuracy in his last tournament in Maui.
Tony Finau +2500
Tony Finau had a rough start last weekend with a 72-70 in La Quinta, which propelled him to a 40th place finish at the American Express. It’s rare for Finau to have that poor of a performance as he usually thrives on the California leg of the Tour.
There are plenty of reasons to like Finau this weekend, most notably that he finished 2nd here last season, doomed in by a 74 on Saturday. Finau has an average finish of 10th at the Farmer’s in 7 events and has made the cut in each entry here.
Marc Leishman +3000
Marc Leishman has played in two of the last three tournaments, so he’s in the groove coming into this weekend at Torrey Pines. That includes a top 10 finish at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and 36th at the Sony Open, in which he shot all four rounds under 70 and finished -11; it’s just that -23 won the tournament.
Leishman also won this event in 2020 and has five career top 10s at the Farmer’s. He’s got the 10th best GIR over the last month and is 15th in driving accuracy.
How to Bet on Farmer’s Insurance Open
Rahm looks like the clear-cut favorite for this tournament, and +650 isn’t bad for how big of an advantage he seemingly has over the field.
Dechambeau’s length should get him in the top 10, and Finau has a nice ROI for a top 5 finish the way he usually plays on the Californian leg of the Tour.
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