The 2022 Wells Fargo Championship returns this week at a new venue but one familiar with PGA Tour pros. As Quail Hollow prepares for the President’s Cup, the tournament takes on TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm in Potomac, Maryland. TPC Potomac hosted the Quicken Loans National in 2017 and 2018.
Wells Fargo Championship Odds
Mcllroy enters the week as defending champion and pre-tournament betting favorite. The 20-time PGA Tour winner turns 33 on Wednesday and is hoping for his 21st victory and a birthday present to himself. Rory is a landslide favorite at +850.
Canadian Corey Conners follows McIlroy at +1600, and four players, Tyrrell Hatton, Marc Leishman, Matthew Fitzpatrick, and Russell Henley, have +2000 odds.
Other notable players in the field include Tony Finau (+2500), Paul Casey (+3500), Sergio Garcia (+3500), Jason Day (+5000), and Rickie Fowler (+13000).
Wells Fargo Championship Betting Analysis
TPC Potomac at Avenel Farms is approximately 7,100 yards in length and plays as a par-70. The course underwent a $32 million dollar redesign in the late-00s to modernize the golf course and clean up some of the design flaws from the original layout. The property runs through numerous creeks and streams with wooded terrain and Scottish-style bunkers.
Winning scores from past tournament events have varied, but expect the challengers at this event to finish with low totals compared to par. The winner will likely finish in the neighborhood of 15-20 under par, depending on the weather conditions.
Francesco Molinari won here in 2018 at the last PGA Tour event, carving the course up with a 21-under finish thanks to elite iron play. Looking at the pre-tournament betting odds, you can see that elite ball-strikers litter the top of the rankings.
Wells Fargo Championship Betting Predictions
We saw what Jon Rahm did last week at the Mexico Open against a field where he was head-over-heels above the rest of the field. Rahm led wire-to-wire and took home his seventh PGA Tour title. McIlroy is that player this week, but we are going to shy away from the seventh-ranked player in the world. Below are our three favorite outright plays, along with a few finishing positions for some players.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (+2000) – The 27-year-old is still searching for his first PGA Tour victory, and TPC Potomac sets up nicely for the Englishman. Fitzpatrick has four top-10 finishes this year and ranks third in Strokes Gained: Total and fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green.
Tony Finau (+2500) – Finau put on a Sunday show for fans at the Mexico Open, firing an 8-under in his final round to vault to a T2 finish. The two-time PGA winner possesses the iron play you want here, sitting in eighth in SG: Approach the Green.
Luke List (+13000) – List is our long-shot play of the week. The Farmers Insurance Open winner has missed his last two cuts, but from a statistical standpoint, the value is worth a small play. List is fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green and ninth in SG: Off-the-Tee with three top-10s to his name this season.
Aaron Rai (+700 to finish T10 or better) – The 27-year-old has strung together three-straight starts finishing T29 or better. Rai shot three rounds in the 60s last week at the Mexico Open and comes into the Wells Fargo with a pair of top-10 finishes under his belt this year.
Cameron Davis (+330 to finish T20 or better) – We last saw Davis at the RBC Heritage, where he had a great week with a T3 finish. It has been an up-and-down season for the 2021 Rocket Mortgage winner, but Davis has the tools for a strong finish here against a weaker field. Look for Davis to parlay that strong showing at Harbour Town into another solid showing this week.
Ben Martin (+500 to finish T40 or better) – The time is now for the 2014 Shriners Hospital winner playing on a sponsor exemption. Martin, who has battled injuries since that victory and struggled to maintain status on Tour, needs all the FedEx Cup points he can obtain this week. The 34-year-old missed the cut last week in Mexico, but the T2 at Corales earlier this year gives us hope for a high finish.
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