One of the biggest betting events on the calendar in the U.S. takes place this weekend, as the Triple Crown gets underway at Churchill Downs. The 150th edition of the Kentucky Derby will once again see a field of horses aged three compete for their moment of history over 1 ¼ miles, and there is a typically wide-open field to the race in Louisville.
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Race Details and Betting Picks
Kentucky Derby 2024
Kentucky Derby
Location: Churchill Downs, Kentucky, Louisville
Date & Time: Saturday, May 4, 2024. 6:57 PM ET
How to watch: NBC
Kentucky Derby 2024 Picks
- Win: Fierceness
- Trifecta Box: Fierceness/Just Steel/Honor Marie/Catching Freedom
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You can find out more about the runners in this Kentucky Derby betting preview, and learn more about the important trends to consider before making Kentucky Derby betting picks.
Kentucky Derby Odds
Fierceness has been the long time favorite in the betting, and he is currently priced up at +250. Meanwhile, Sierra Leone could be among the popular Kentucky Derby betting picks at +300.
Aside from the top two, there could be a lot of value in the market, with Forever Young and Catching Freedom priced up at +875 and +900, respectively. Additionally, Just To Touch boasts solid claims, and could be among the interesting horse racing predictions at +1100.
Key Kentucky Derby Trends
Ahead of assessing the Kentucky Derby betting guide in terms of the leading contenders, it is important to assess the trends. Subsequently in this Kentucky Derby betting preview, we will go through some of the notable stats that make for important reading.
- Post 7 boasts the best win percentage at 20%, while post 17 has never produced a Derby winner
- 28 of the last 32 Derby winners have posted at least a 98+ Beyer Speed Figure
- Nine of the last ten winners of the race have lined up in a field of between seven and eleven runners on their previous start
- Blue Grass and Wood Memorial prep races have been poor for producing Derby winners. The Blue Grass last produced the winner in 2007
- Nine of the last 13 winners have won on their most recent start, while eight of the last 12 have been unbeaten in the same calendar year
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Kentucky Derby Leading Contenders
Fierceness
Todd Pletcher’s Fierceness will rank among the popular plays when examining any Kentucky Derby betting preview. The three-year-old boasts the best BSF of any runner in the Kentucky Derby this year, and comes into the Derby after a dominant 13-length success over Catalytic in the G1 Florida Derby. Despite being drawn in the dreaded stall 17, a quick start could put him in a prime position to use his pace advantage in the final furlongs.
Sierra Leone
Sierra Leone represents the Chad Brown yard in the Derby this year. The three-year-old hasn’t put a foot wrong in two starts this year, most recently landing the G1 Blue Grass by a healthy margin from Just A Touch. His ability to battle, which has been exemplified over his last two starts, makes him a solid contender in this big field at Churchill Downs.
Catching Freedom
Catching Freedom is a very talented three-year-old for Brad Cox. The runner has won twice from three starts this year, most recently getting the better of Honor Marie in the G2 Louisiana Derby. However, he was beaten pretty comfortably by Sierra Leone at Fair Grounds in the G2 Risen Star, which leaves him with something to find on his reappearing rival.
Forever Young
Forever Young is the latest Japanese star looking to give the nation a first win in the Derby. Yoshito Yahagi is a master at placing his horses in the best spot, and the three-year-old was hugely progressive when booking his spot with two victories in the Middle East. His will to win was evident in the G2 UAE Derby when getting the better of Auto Bahn.
Dark Horses Worth Considering
As one of the biggest horse racing events, there is value within the betting market for the Derby. Honor Marie has been tearing the house down with impressive workouts this week, and he could be an excellent value angle to at least reverse the form with Catching Freedom and claim minor honors.
Just Steel is also worth his chance this weekend after keeping high-quality company for trainer D. Wayne Lukas. The three-year-old was narrowly beaten by the impressive Muth in the G1 Arkansas Derby, and was a gritty second in unfavorable conditions in the G3 Southwest Stakes.
Kentucky Derby 2024 Prediction
Despite the draw, Fierceness looks to be the standout selection in this year’s Derby field. If he gets away quickly, he could claim victory by a comfortable margin. Value could be found in the Exotics, and we are keen on the chances of Honor Marie, Just Steel, and Catching Freedom all competing for a place finish.
- Win: Fierceness
- Trifecta Box: Fierceness/Just Steel/Honor Marie/Catching Freedom
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