Another numbered event is set for this weekend on the UFC fight schedule, bringing the UFC back to Brazil for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic. An intriguing matchup on the main card is this middleweight battle between Paul Craig and Caio Borralho.
Continue reading for a closer look at this matchup, along with the Craig vs Borralho best bets before you place any UFC bets of your own this weekend.
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Fight Details and Betting Picks
Craig vs Borralho Information
Paul Craig vs Caio Borralho
Location of the fight: Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Date & Time: May 04, 2024. 10 PM ET main card start
Where to Watch: ESPN+ PPV
Craig vs Borralho Picks
- Pick Craig to win inside (+650)
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Last Fight Record
Craig is looking to bounce back from a third-round submission loss to Brendan Allen in a main event fight last November.
Borralho is coming off a decision win over Abus Magomedov last November.
Craig vs. Borralho Betting Analysis
Paul Craig
Craig is a Scottish mixed martial artist with a professional record of 17-7-1, including 4 TKO/KO wins and 13 submissions. He’s an eight-time Performance of the Night bonus winner in the UFC as well. Outside of MMA, Paul Craig has won gold at the 2015 British Pro Championship in BJJ at the purple belt level, and the bronze at the 2015 Abu Dhabi World Pro event.
Craig is listed as a 6’3” orthodox fighter with a 76” reach, making him a very good-sized middleweight after he dropped down from light heavyweight last year. In his UFC career, he averages 2.42 significant strikes landed and 2.86 absorbed per minute. He lands 1.76 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a 1.6 submission average.
Caio Borralho
Borralho is a Brazilian mixed martial artist with a record of 15-1, including 4 TKO/KO victories and 4 wins by submission. Since earning his UFC contract on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2021, he is 5-0 in the UFC. He has one Performance of the Night bonus in the UFC so far at the age of 31.
Caio Borralho stands at 5’10” and fights as a southpaw with a 75” reach. So far in his UFC career, he averages 2.73 significant strikes landed per minute while only absorbing 1.98. He adds 2.16 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 57% takedown defense.
Updates
The UFC and ESPN have not reported any injuries.
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Craig vs. Borralho Betting Preview
The Craig vs Borralho best bets can’t be made until we break down this matchup stylistically and preview how the betting lines are looking during fight week. These are two big steps on the way to winning bets on upcoming UFC fights.
According to the UFC odds, Borralho has all the hype going into UFC 301 as the -500 betting favorite over Craig. Craig is the +375 underdog and this fight is favored to end inside the distance at -220.
Stylistically, this has all the makings to be a very exciting fight to watch on Saturday night. Craig is a pure submission artist who has found a weight class where he can use his size to the fullest and ass a little more strength and advantage on the ground. He struggles when the fight stays on the feet because he isn’t the best athlete and doesn’t have as much skill and confidence in kickboxing.
Borralho is a stocky, strong Muay Thai fighter who keeps getting better every fight. He loves grappling and getting to his opponents’ backs and is very comfortable up against the fence and countering. He will have the speed and explosiveness advantage on Saturday.
On paper, this fight is clearly Borralho’s to win. Many overlook Craig due to his unorthodox style and dedication to drawing his opponent into his guard. This craftiness and danger on the ground can cause issues with even the best MMA fighters in the world–as Craig has beaten many top light heavyweights.
Craig vs. Borralho Best Bets and Prediction
After carefully looking at this matchup from all angles, the Craig vs Borralho prediction is that this will be a one-sided fight for most of the time spent in that octagon. Borralho is explosive, powerful, and the better striker. He should be able to take this fight wherever he needs it to go.
With that in mind, the Craig vs Borralho best bets support backing Craig to win inside the distance. He is at +650 and that is a line that’s too hard to pass up. Craig regularly defies the odds by winning fights where he is the underdog.
Craig preys on the inexperienced fighters who make mistakes in awkward, new situations they haven’t been in before. With those odds, it’s impossible not to bet on Craig jacking over hooks in and pulling guard, setting up traps to lock up an arm bar or triangle.
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