Perhaps surprisingly, the Atlanta Braves haven’t followed the MLB expert picks in starting out hot. They’re 8-11 in the early going and have dealt with some injuries, including to star outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. Still, to have a worse record than the Chicago Cubs (8-10) comes as a surprise as Atlanta is a team many thought would still win the NL East.
Last Game’s Records
The Cubs avenged Tuesday’s 3-1 loss by taking Wednesday’s game 6-3 in extra innings. It started out all Chicago, taking a 3-1 lead before Dansby Swanson hit a two-out, two-run single on a full count to tie the game in the bottom of the eighth. Going to extras, it was a Willson Contreras RBI double that broke the tie before a no-doubt home run by Patrick Wisdom to get to the final score.
Matchup Information
Cubs at Braves Betting Analysis
Chicago Cubs Betting Analysis
The Cubs’ offense is off to a blistering start, ranking second in the league in runs at 5.24 per game. If you take the 21-run outburst Saturday against Pittsburgh and it’s down to 4.12, which is still respectable. They also had four games at Coors Field where they averaged 5.5 runs per game. A little inflation never hurts anyone, right?
Chicago is also the top team in average and OPS at .266 and .758, respectively. In a park that plays more to hitters than it does pitchers, that should play well.
They will give the ball to Drew Smyly, a former Brave who started the season with 9.2 shutout innings. Though he gave up four runs on six hits, including two home runs, against the Pirates in his last start.
Atlanta Braves Betting Analysis
The Braves have stumbled out of the gates on the offensive end. They’re best at hitting home runs, ranking as the fourth best team in baseball while averaging 1.29 per game. But they strikeout 8.94 times per game and are below average in runs per game (4.04) and average (.230). That power is something to behold though as they are 10th in OPS at .713
Their pitching should be a lot better though. Atlanta is allowing 4.73 runs per game, the sixth worst in baseball, despite being above average in opposing average, OPS, home runs and fourth in strikeouts at 9.91 per game.
Kyle Wright has been strong with a pair of scoreless outings and boasts a 1.06 ERA. He has 26 strikeouts in 17 innings and has only walked two hitters.
Updates
Atlanta surprisingly activated Acuna from the injured list on Thursday and the star outfielder is expected to be available for Thursday’s matchup. Acuna was recovering from a torn ACL suffered last July, which meant he watched as the Braves went on to win the championship.
Both teams have had their pitching depth take a hit. The Cubs’ Brad Wieck has yet to make his debut and is out indefinitely with an elbow injury. The same can be said for Andrelton Simmons, who recently suffered a shoulder injury, and Clint Frazier, who is out with an appendix issue.
Cubs at Braves Betting Preview
Betting on baseball can be a crapshoot sometimes because the data will have outliers early in the season. The Cubs limp into action having lost six of their last eight games and are +180 on the moneyline and +1.5 (-115) on the run line. Atlanta (-220) is favored by 1.5 (-105) runs and the over/under is 8.5. MLB betting trends show that 78% of the money is on the Braves to win.
Atlanta is looking to win its first series of the early season, splitting a couple of four-game sets and losing series to the Dodgers, Marlins and Nationals.
Cubs at Braves Betting Prediction
Atlanta isn’t struggling for a lack of runs. The Braves have been scoring even in several of their losses. Wright has been strong to start the season and another good outing can turn it over to the bullpen to try and get the job done. Newly acquired closer Kenley Jansen locked down his fifth save of the season on Tuesday, and the bridge to get to him has performed well with Tyler Thornburg, Tyler Matzek, Darren O’Day and Will Smith.
Seiya Suzuki has been as good as advertised for the Cubs. He’s off to a .327 start with a 1.105 OPS to go with four doubles, four home runs, 13 RBIs and 12 runs scored. Atlanta needs to limit baserunners before he comes up because he has proven he’ll do damage. The backend of the Cubs bullpen has been solid as well so they need Smyly to give them an opportunity to lock a game down.
However, the Braves offense will be too much and Wright will be his strong self. We like the emotions of Acuna’s return and will take the Braves -1.5.
How to Bet on Cubs at Braves
If you’re looking to bet on this game, go to your favorite sportsbook and place the wager as follows, or if you’re doing it online, pick a sportsbook and sign up if you haven’t already.
Betting the Cubs moneyline (+180) with a $100 bet would generate a $180, plus the $100 you bet back should the Royals win outright. In order to get $100 back on a White Sox (-220) win, the risk is much higher, needing to place a $220 bet. Should the team lose, you will lose whatever you wager.
Betting against the spread (Cubs +1.5 or Braves -1.5) means you need the Cubs to lose by one run or win the game or for the Braves to win by two or more depending on which team you bet on. MLB betting picks typically stays around 1.5 runs but the odds for who to bet is the kicker.
The odds listed above can apply the same way as a moneyline bet to factor in how much money you could potentially make with a $100 bet. The move here is the Braves, -1.5.
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