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BellatorMMA Picks

Patchy Mix vs. Magomed Magomedov Betting Analysis and Prediction

Bellator 289 is taking place this Friday, December 9th, and will feature a lot of exciting matchups on the main card.

In the feature bout of the main card, a bantamweight Grand-Prix semi final fight between Patchy Mix (16-1) and Magomed Magomedov (19-2) will be taking place. 

Let’s look further into this Mix vs Magomedov betting analysis and prediction to determine what the most likely outcome is for this massive bantamweight fight between two of the best Bellator has to offer.

Last Fight Record

Mix is coming off of an underdog decision win over Kyoji Horiguchi.

Magomedov is coming off of a bounceback submission victory over Enrique Barzola after taking a loss to Raufeon Stots last year. 

Mix vs. Magomedov Betting Analysis

Patchy Mix

Patchy Mix is one of MMA’s most exciting upcoming bantamweight contenders. He is taking the Bellator promotion by storm and coming off a big upset win over former champion Kyoji Horiguchi. 

Impressive 11 Submissions

Mix is 16-1 in his professional career with an impressive 11 submissions. With only 1 KO, we know his main plan of offensive attack is with his submission game.

He is pretty good sized as a bantamweight with a very long 71-inch reach for his height.  He is currently 3-1 in Bellator, with his only loss coming from Juan Archuleta.

Mix was 9-0 in the King of the Cage organization, where he beat UFC fighter Andre Ewell by submission to become the bantamweight champion. 

As a 29-year-old, Mix has shown a ton of potential to be one of the most dominant bantamweights in the world with his ability to consistently control his opponents on the ground.

Magomed Magomedov

Magomed Magomedov is a 19-2 Russian martial artist with a ton of experience against some of the best fighters in the bantamweight division at only 30 years old.

He has been in two 5-round wars against former UFC champion Petr Yan in the ABC promotion, splitting those two fights 1-1. 

Magomedov’s Performance Recap

Magomedov started fighting in Bellator at the end of 2020, where he went on to go 3-1 so far in the promotion, with two submission victories.

Like his opponent this week, Magomedov is a grapple-heavy fighter who will look to dominate his opponent on the ground. He has nine submissions in his career, along with four KOs.

There aren’t a lot of statistics on either of these guys. Magomedov has faced some very tough Russian fighters in his career, but you just can’t tell how the competition correlates to the fights that Mix has had.

They both are going to look to grapple because that is where they are most comfortable. 

Patchy Mix vs. Magomed Magomedov Betting Preview

Bellator odds have this fight as a razor-thin difference, with most sportsbooks putting Patchy Mix as the slight underdog in plus odds.

The best value you can get for Mix is +117. Most likely, this will be a pick ’em odds fight by the time the lines close on fight night. 

Bellator’s Odds Breakdown

These are the closest odds that Magomedov has ever had in his professional career. His fights against Petr Yan were not available to bet on, so the matchups he has since have shown him as the big favorite.

After losing that decision to Stots, Magomedov now has a slight blueprint on how to beat him.

Mix is coming into this bout with very high confidence and the belief that he can beat Magomedov wherever this fight goes.

He has a knack for being able to get to his opponent’s back on the ground and sit comfortably in that backpack position. He went to that position in every round against Horiguchi.

Striking Chances

Both Magomedov and Mix seem slightly uncomfortable in the striking exchanges so far in their young careers. They are surely much more comfortable in wrestling and sambo/jiu-jitsu scrambles. 

The over/under is set at 4.5 rounds, and it seems pretty difficult to expect either fighter to finish the other.

They are both very durable and solid defensively on the ground and on the feet. You should expect a 25-minute battle.

This is the second fight in a row where Patchy Mix has been the underdog, which has also been the first two times in his career.

Pluss-odds

We know that Mix upset an elite grappler in Horiguchi while being an underdog the other time and dominated him on the ground for five rounds. There is a ton of value in Mix at plus-odds in this matchup.

After breaking down the Mix vs Magomedov betting analysis, it is clear that this is a toss-up bout. Both of these fighters are very high-level and will be coming in this Friday with a lot of confidence.

Patchy Mix vs. Magomed Magomedov Betting Predictions

Making MMA picks can be very challenging with odds this close. But there has to be one clear fighter to go with for this bantamweight semifinal. 

Most Profitable Fighter to Bet On

The official Mix vs Magomedov betting prediction is going to be Mix by unanimous decision.

He is going to be able to get into the more dominant positions on the ground and then throw with more volume when they are striking. 

Mix will be able to use his pressure, keep Magomedov up against the fence for most of the fight, and set up level changes. Don’t be surprised if he gets in the backpack position on Magomedov as well. 

With the MMA odds having Mix as the underdog, it only seems right to make a play on him. He is riding a lot of momentum going into this fight week and is looking to get into that title fight for $1 million. 

As stated before, it will be tough for either one of these guys to finish the other. Too much durability from both fighters, and they will be coming into this fight in fantastic shape.

Bellator Pick: Mix (-100)

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