The Dallas Mavericks got their MVP candidate back when Luka Doncic just missed a triple-double in Sunday’s 95-86 win over Oklahoma City. Doncic will be put to the test on Monday, though, playing on 0 days rest while being off for the previous three weeks with an ankle injury and in the health and safety protocols.
The Denver Nuggets are coming to Dallas on a three-game win streak, posting a big victory in Golden State last week (89-86) and also getting healthier after the back end of a home and home with the Warriors was postponed last week.
This will be the third meeting of the season between these two teams, with each getting a victory on their home court. That trend would favor Dallas in Monday night’s matchup, but how will the Mavericks respond to the short turnaround – especially coming off a five-game road stretch.
Nuggets at Mavericks Betting Analysis
On the Denver side
The Nuggets have rattled off three wins in a row, although two of those were gimmes against the shorthanded Clippers and at the Rockets. Even so, they were on the road – and Houston has been playing better – and Denver is just 10-10 away from Ball Arena this season.
The win over Golden State could come with an asterisk, too, as the Warriors were playing without defensive stopper Draymond Green on the post. As a result, Nikola Jokic had 22 points and 19 rebounds, just one board shy of his third straight 20+ point / 20+ rebound double-double.
Denver gets another favorable break with the Mavericks playing on 0 days rest on Monday night, but the Nuggets are hardly a team that has had luck on their side.
The team is already dealing with what looks like season-ending injuries to Jamal Murray, Michael Porter, Jr., and P.J. Dozier and then had last Thursday’s meeting with the Warriors postponed because the Nuggets were short too many guys. The good news is Denver is getting healthier for the Dallas matchup.
On the Dallas side
Doncic was able to play 31 minutes on Sunday even after being out since December 10th with what started as ankle/leg injuries and then was extended after a positive COVID test. Doncic’s condition was already a question earlier this season, but we will see how he fares playing on back to back after nearly a month off.
Jason Kidd did strategize for the Denver matchup, sitting Kristaps Porzingis against the Thunder, so he is ready to bang on the post with Jokic on Monday. In the two meetings with Dallas this season, Jokic has 11/16/8 in just 25 minutes in a 106-75 Nuggets win and also posted 35/16/6 but in a 111-101 Mavs win.
Nuggets at Mavericks Prediction
Top sportsbooks odds have Dallas as a -3.5 favorite in this matchup. That seems strange with the Mavericks playing on back to back and coming off a five-game road swing.
The teams have split two games this season, with both winning at home. Perhaps that’s what oddsmakers are relying on with this line, but any time you can get Jokic getting points against a team on 0 days rest, you have to take it. Porzingis resting on Sunday will help Dallas’ chances, but how effective is Doncic going to be on back-to-back coming off of nearly three weeks off?
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