The Miami Heat (35-26) and Dallas Mavericks (34-28) meet in a pivotal game on the NBA schedule on Thursday as both teams are on the bubble in NBA expert picks to make the top-six in their respective conferences. Miami is sixth in the East and Dallas is eighth in the West, two games back from the Phoenix Suns in sixth place. It’s the first meeting between these two teams this season; Miami beat Dallas 129-122 on April 1, 2023.
Heat vs Mavericks Picks
While the Mavericks may win this one, expect a close, one- or two-possession game, which is why the Heat +3.5 (-110) is the preferred bet for the spread.
- Pick: Heat +3.5 (-110)
Let’s take a look at the NBA odds for the game and the Heat vs Mavericks betting picks, along with our scores and odds analysis.
Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks Odds
Miami opened as +134 moneyline underdogs in the Heat vs Mavericks betting picks. They also had a +3.5 spread. The Mavericks were -159 moneyline favorites with a -3.5 point spread at BetUS.
Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks Information
Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks
Location of the game: American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas
Date & Time: Thursday, March 7 at 7:30 p.m. ET
How to Watch: NBA TV
Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks Analysis
Miami Heat Performance Recap and Analysis
The Heat has been among the hottest teams in the league, winning eight of their last 10 NBA games, including two in a row against the Detroit Pistons and Utah Jazz. Their only two losses were against the Boston Celtics and Denver Nuggets, two leaders in NBA team stats. Miami shot 49 percent from the field in its win over the Pistons. Jimmy Butler led the team in NBA player stats with 26 points and was one of six players with at least 10 points.
The Heat are 18-13 on the road. They often win with their defense as they’re 27th in PPG (110.8) and 28th in pace (96.0), but are eighth in defensive rating (114.3). They’ve allowed 110 points or fewer in 12 of their last 14 games coming into the Heat vs Mavericks betting picks.
Key Injuries
Kevin Love and Tyler Herro are both on the Miami Injury report today. They’re game-time decisions to play.
Betting Trends to Know
- Miami is 5-4-1 in its last 10 games against the spread (ATS) versus the Mavericks and 30-30-1 ATS overall this season, including 18-12-1 on the road.
- They’re 10-17 as betting underdogs.
Dallas Mavericks Performance Recap and Analysis
Dallas is 5-5 in its last 10 games and on a three-game losing streak with losses to the Indiana Pacers, Philadelphia 76ers, and Boston Celtics. This is their seventh of nine consecutive games against the Eastern Conference and they’re 1-5 thus far with their lone win coming against the Toronto Raptors.
The Mavericks are sixth in PPG (118.7) and seventh in pace (99.8). They’re a good three-point shooting team, ranking third in threes made per game (14.9), but are among the worst defensive teams in the league. They’re 22nd in defensive rating (118.6), 28th in steals (6.7), and 23rd in rebounds (42.4). Luka Doncic leads all players in the Dallas Mavericks lineup with 34.6 PPG and has been over that total in five of his last seven games.
Key Injuries
Dallas doesn’t have any players on the NBA injury report.
Betting Trends to Know
- Dallas is 32-30 ATS, including 14-19 at home.
- They’re 25-11 as betting favorites and their over-under record is 15-18 on home court.
Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks Betting Picks
- Moneyline: Dallas desperately needs a win more than the Heat and is the smart moneyline pick considering Herro’s GTD status and their record as betting favorites.
- Spread: While the Mavericks may win this one, expect a close, one- or two-possession game, which is why the Heat +3.5 (-110) is the preferred bet for the spread.
- Over/Under: Miami has one of the best defenses in the league with an over-under record of 9-22 on the road. Take the under all day.
Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction
- NBA Pick: Heat +3.5 (-110)
Discover the latest stats and trends of this matchup here.
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