If either the East Carolina Pirates (15-16) or South Florida Bulls (14-17) are going to be worth March Madness bets, they are going to have to win the American Athletic Conference Tournament championship. They face long NCAAB odds there but are one of the first NCAA basketball games today and the first of the AAC tournament.
The two teams were in the bottom four of the college basketball standings, leading them to the first round. The NCAAB schedule shows the Bulls won both matchups during the regular season, including by 11 on the road on January 15 and by eight at home on February 1.
Here is a breakdown of the odds, an analysis of each team, and an East Carolina vs South Florida prediction.
East Carolina Pirates vs. South Florida Bulls Information
East Carolina Pirates vs South Florida Bulls
Location: Dickies Arena, Fort Worth, TX.
Date and Time: Thursday, March 9, 2023, 12:30 PM ET.
How to Watch: ESPNU | ESPN+
East Carolina Pirates vs. South Florida Bulls Recent Scores
Those making college basketball predictions will likely default to the season series between the two teams. The Bulls covered both of those as a one-point underdog on the road and favored by 7.5 at home.
South Florida is 4-1 against the spread in the last five meetings. The under is 3-1 in the last four meetings, including under 141.5 last time out, which was the highest total in at least the previous ten meetings. That is worthwhile to know before making an East Carolina vs South Florida prediction.
Meanwhile, the underdog is 6-2 against the spread in the last eight meetings between the Pirates and Bulls.
East Carolina Pirates vs. South Florida Bulls Betting Analysis
East Carolina Pirates Facts to Know
Pirates limp into the tournament having lost four of its last six games. They really have struggled on both ends of the court and are one of the worst NCAA basketball teams in offensive efficiency.
The Pirates ranked 236th in scoring 69.4 points per game, 344th in making 40.7% of field goal attempts, 313th in making 31.8% of 3-point shots, and 283rd in converting 69.0% of free throw attempts. There are 362 teams, including 10 transitioning up from Division II, who compete at the Division I level.
East Carolina ranked 219th defensively in allowing 71.3 points per game. The Pirates allowed teams to convert 44.3% of field goal attempts, which ranked 223rd, and 33.0% of 3-point shots, which ranked 121st.
Their rebounding was 84th in doing so 33.4 times per game but 216th defensively in allowing 31.5 per contest.
East Carolina was 18-13 against the spread and 17-14 on over/unders this season. The Pirates were 2-9 straight up on the road and 3-1 on a neutral court. They were 11-8 against the spread as an underdog, including 3-2 against the spread as an underdog of three points or less. They were 0-3 against the spread on the road against teams with a losing record.
South Florida Bulls Facts to Know
South Florida figures to win on the offensive end and do just enough defensively to make a difference. We will see if the Bulls can make good on that a third time, as college basketball picks may suggest (71% of public bets are on the Bulls to cover the spread).
The Bulls ranked 162nd in scoring 72.4 points per game, 178th in making 44.8% of field goal attempts, 212th in making 33.7% of 3-point shots, and 345th in converting 64.8% of free throw attempts.
Defensively, South Florida ranked 239th in allowing 71.9 points per game, 129th in holding teams to 43.0% on field goal attempts, and 248th in allowing 34.8% of 3-point shots to fall.
The Bulls ranked 73rd in rebounding 33.5 times per game and allowed 30.6 per contest, which ranked 150th.
They have one of the bigger size advantages as Russel Tchewa is 7 foot and 280 pounds and will match up with Ludgy Debaut, who is also 7 foot but weighs 245 pounds. Those are two of the bigger college basketball players at that level.
South Florida was 18-12-1 against the spread and 21-10 on over/unders this season. It was 4-7 straight up on the road and 1-1 on a neutral court. The Bulls were 7-6-1 against the spread as favorites, including a 1-0-1 record when favored by 3 to 4.5 points.
Updates
The college basketball injury report shows East Carolina is without guard Javon Small indefinitely due to a knee injury. South Florida guard Selton Miguel is questionable for an undisclosed reason, while fellow Bulls guard Trey Moss is out indefinitely due to undisclosed reasons.
East Carolina Pirates vs. South Florida Bulls Betting Preview
The NCAA college basketball odds show South Florida is favored by three points with -110 odds on either side of the line. The over/under is 141.5 points with -110 odds on either side of the line.
The Pirates are +140 on the moneyline, while the Bulls are -160. East Carolina’s team over/under is 69.5 with -115 odds on either side. South Florida’s team over/under is 72.5 points with -115 odds on either side.
East Carolina Pirates vs. South Florida Bulls Betting Prediction
The old adage is that it is difficult to beat a team three times in one season. But the Bulls have some help since Small, East Carolina’s leading scorer at 15.8 points per game, will not be available for the Pirates.
Plus, the Pirates will have to play a little bigger in order to match up with Tchewa, who is the second-leading scorer for the Bulls at 11.3 points on an efficient 60.8% from the field to go with 8.5 rebounds per game.
The public seems to heavily favor South Florida, which gives us some concern, but losing a top scorer in the middle of the year and having already lost twice to the same team is difficult to overcome.
Our East Carolina vs South Florida prediction is to take South Florida -3. We also suspect there will be plenty of points based on the two defenses, but so often, on a neutral court, teams struggle to shoot. So we will go with under 141.5 points.
If you love sports and want more sports betting information follow us as @InsidersBetDig on Twitter and sign up to our mailing list for free betting picks.
