March Madness betting is a difficult task to handle for bettors who have followed the sport all season but can be especially hard for casual fans just entering the sport when the tournament starts.
It would be nearly impossible for any person to know something about every team in the 68-team field when the event starts. Some of the non-Power Five conference teams hardly get any television time compared to their larger counterparts.
Being able to successfully bet on this event requires finding an edge somewhere. While there will be a lot of trends brought up every year — did you know 12 seeds upset No. 5 seeds? — it is important to keep in mind that the past doesn’t dictate what will happen in this year’s tournament.
The most important factor for betting on March Madness is to remember not to overthink things because it is a big event. So, let’s go right into our March Madness betting tips.
March Madness Betting Tips
Yes, the 12 seeds do win, occasionally
One of the most popular things prognosticators will point out is the frequency of No. 12 seeds beating a No. 5 in the NCAAB tournament. While it is true, this has happened at a decent clip since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, 12 seeds only win at a 35.42 percentage in the first round.
While 12 seeds are 51-93 all-time against 5s, there have been several recent tournaments where such an upset didn’t happen. Not counting 2020, where there was no tournament due to the pandemic, the 2018 and 2015 tournaments failed to see a 12 seed advance. In 2019, there were three such upsets.
In 2021, 12th-seeded Oregon State upset Tennessee in the first round on its way to the Elite 8.
First Four build some momentum
Teams from the play-in round have had a surprising amount of success in the first round. Since expanding to 68 teams in 2011, First Four winners are 18-20 in the round of 64. Two of these teams, 2010-11 VCU and 2020-21 UCLA, have rode the momentum to the Final Four.
Sometimes these teams may be undervalued in their matchups because they are playing on short rest, but recent history has shown depending on who they get in the first round, having played more recently than the other team isn’t necessarily a disadvantage. Keep an eye out for power conference teams that get relegated to the play-in round. Sometimes, getting a chance to get an extra game in can work wonders.
Don’t look down on Gonzaga
2022 will be another season where Gonzaga is among the top seeds in the entire field playing out of the mid-major West Coast Conference.
However, anyone deriding the Bulldogs for their lack of pedigree or weak schedule are stuck in 2002. Gonzaga played a difficult non-conference schedule which consisted of games against Duke, Texas, UCLA, Texas Tech, and Alabama.
In conference, San Francisco, Santa Clara, and Saint Mary’s all had strong seasons. Moreover, Gonzaga has reached the Elite Eight four times since 2015 and played for the national championship in 2017 and 2021. If you don’t like Gonzaga to win because of its tournament draw, that’s fine.
Just don’t let it be because people tell you they don’t have the makeup for March.
Keep an eye for teams that may be underseeded
Every season, teams hit lulls during their schedule where they don’t play up to their ability. If that squad stubs their toe too many times, it may result in them dropping down the seed line in the committee’s eyes. Teams that play in tough conferences, like the SEC, Big 12, and Big 10, may have struggled to win away from home due to hostile environments.
However, since all the NCAA Tournament games are on neutral courts, there should be less concerns about the trappings that come from playing on the road. Teams like Texas Tech and Purdue in this year’s field took tough road losses during conference play but should be poised to make solid runs through the field.
Don’t make it personal
Don’t allow fandom — either intense like or dislike of teams or programs — color how you see things going down. Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski will be retiring at the end of this season, but it is unlikely that fact will make the Blue Devils win the tournament. Duke has a strong team that would be competitive no matter what Coach K’s job status was.
Emotions don’t matter when it comes to betting. It’s all about finding teams and situations that have favorable draws. Sport betting information can help people look at things from a more objective view.
That allows people to find betting odds that present a chance for them to make some money. Good luck with your March Madness bets!
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