We’re getting closer and closer to the 2022 college football season, and if you’re like many bettors that enjoy college football, you’ve been looking at the season win totals since the NCAAF odds were first posted.
But while it may seem like an easy pick to take the over on some of the top teams, you have to make an informed choice, or you’re just throwing money away.
We’re going to go through a few things you should be doing before you put money down on a college football season win bet this season. They’re simple things that could help you make a little more on your wagers in 2022.
It’s Not All Big Names
Sure, being able to say that you picked that :
- Alabama
- Clemson
- USC
Went over their projected win totals is always exciting to be able to say, but guess what? Saying that you picked Miami (Ohio), Oregon State, and Rice correctly is going to put just as much if not more money in your pocket.
NCAAF Odds
In other words, you don’t win anymore for the name of the school if you’re right on a bet. The only thing that matters is the odds, whether it’s an SEC powerhouse or a Conference USA also-ran.
You just want to be right, and sometimes, picking a team to exceed five wins is easier than taking a team to 10 or 11 victories.
The prestige might not be the same when you’re bragging to your friends, but why are you in the betting game to begin with?
To win, and if you’re going to win with a team that isn’t going to a bowl game, your wallet won’t know the difference.
Do Your Research
In tandem with that last point, doing your research and not just relying on a school’s reputation is extremely important.
For example, Michigan advanced to the College Football Playoff a season ago. But are the Wolverines going to repeat their magical season of a year ago, or have they lost many players and will take even a slight step back that will ruin your over/under bet?
A one-year jump in victories doesn’t mean a team is going to stay at that level for a second straight season.
Look at NCAAF Teams Trends
Make sure you look at trends for a team – and see what’s been going on with the team since last season. Clemson might seem like it’s always in contention for the ACC title, but what is the Tigers’ quarterback situation? How many players have they lost from their defense?
As you’re going through a team’s schedule, make sure you research the NCAAF teams they’ll face, especially of the non-conference variety.
Betting on an SEC
Are you betting on an SEC team that has loaded its non-conference schedule with cupcakes, or are you taking a team that is testing itself with a couple of tough non-conference foes?
While a school may consistently be good, it can go up and down a couple of wins from season to season, and that could be the difference between a win and loss on your season win and the total bet if you’re not diligent in your research.
Take a Broad View
As you’re deciding on the NCAAF picks you to want to make on a team’s season win totals, you need to decide the chances of them winning each game.
So take a look at the opponent they’ll be facing and where they are in the opponent’s schedule.
If a team is facing a team the week after it’s faced its biggest rival, determine if that opponent will be coming off a win or a loss in your eyes.
That could affect their play against the team you want to bet on, and that can help you determine if it should be counted as a win or a loss.
How Rest Days Can Affect Teams?
Pay attention to bye weeks. Look at the history of a team coming off a bye. Some teams do extremely well with extra rest, while some have a reputation of coming out flat the week after they haven’t had a game.
Little things matter when you’re trying to get an edge on your picks, so a glance at the NCAAF stats to see how a particular team does defensively against your team’s preferred offense is also a key.
If your team can’t stop the run and they’re facing Navy, it may be a little harder to assume a victory.
Overall, the key to a solid season win total bet is doing your research, not betting with your heart but your head, and being as rational and informed with your pick as possible.
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