The SMU Mustangs will travel to Nippert Stadium on Saturday afternoon to take on the fifth-ranked Cincinnati Bearcats in an American Athletic Conference matchup. The Mustangs are 8-2 (4-2) this season and are coming off a 55-28 home win over the UCF Knights.
Junior quarterback Tanner Mordecai went 37-of-54 for 377 yards with three touchdowns and an interception. The Bearcats are a perfect 10-0 (8-0) and are coming off a 45-28 road win over the USF Bulls. Senior quarterback Desmond Ridder finished 31-of-39 for 304 yards with two touchdowns and an interception.
SMU at Cincinnati Betting Analysis
On the SMU Mustangs side
Senior wide receiver Danny Gray is listed as questionable with a leg injury but has been doing well this season with 49 receptions for 803 yards (16.4 yards per catch) with nine touchdown receptions as well as three rushing attempts for 40 yards (13.3 yards per carry). In his last game against UCF, Gray finished with just a pair of catches for 23 yards (11.5 yards per reception).
The SMU Mustangs have been a decent defensive program as they are giving up 25.9 points per game this season. In their previous game against the UCF Knights, SMU allowed 28 points on 333 total yards of offense (209 passing, 124 rushing). The Knights were held in check as they went just 6-of-17 on third-down attempts. They were able to run the ball well as they averaged 4.4 rushing yards per carry.
On the Cincinnati Bearcats side
Junior running back Jerome Ford sat last week’s game out with an undisclosed injury, so hopefully, he is healthy enough to play here. So far this year, Ford has 142 rushing attempts for 888 yards (6.3 yards per rush) with 15 rushing touchdowns and 15 receptions for 169 yards (11.3 yards per catch) with a receiving touchdown. In his last game against Tulsa, he had seven rushes for 24 yards (3.4 yards per carry) with a rushing touchdown and a pair of catches for 67 yards (33.5 yards per reception).
The Cincinnati Bearcats have been dominant on the defensive side of the football this season as they are allowing 16.2 points per game. In their previous game against the USF Bulls, Cincinnati gave up 28 points on 346 total yards of offense (245 passing, 101 rushing).
The Bulls managed to go 7-of-13 on third down and converted their only fourth-down attempt. The Bearcats did, however, force four turnovers in the game (two fumble recoveries, two interceptions).
Mustangs at Bearcats Prediction
The top sportsbooks across the country are listing the Bearcats as a double-digit home favorite for this game. However, Cincinnati has been struggling to cover as they have not in their last four games this season.
In their last two games, the Bearcats are giving up 24 points per game, while SMU is allowing 30 points per game in their previous five games this season. I am not going to say that the SMU Mustangs will pull off the upset but go with them getting more than a touchdown on the road to cover the spread against a team trying to find its identity.