When it comes to what NFL Player Prop for August 14 to look for, sometimes the long game may be the better option.
Preseason games have a lot of uncertainty surrounding playing time and which players coaches will utilize. What the last few weeks of preseason may present itself is a good time to be on season-long player props.
Here are a few long-term options that may be worth thinking about.
Baker Mayfield under 3700.5 regular season passing yards (-110)
When Mayfield left the Cleveland Browns and went to the Carolina Panthers, he entered a situation that may be equal in pressure. Panthers coach Matt Rhule is likely coaching for his job this season and will anoint Mayfield the starting quarterback over Sam Darnold. But with Rhule needing a big season, he may be willing to pull Mayfield if things go sideways.
In Mayfield’s four-year career, he has only thrown for 3,7000 or more yards in a season once. In two of the four seasons, Mayfield missed at least two games.
With Mayfield recovering from a shoulder injury and the Panthers having a number of internal challenges, this is a number Mayfield may get close to, but he won’t go over.
Daniel Jones under 3600.5 passing yards (-110)
Former Duke standout and New York Giants quarterback Jones has had a difficult last two seasons.
With injuries piling up to him and running back Saquon Barkley, New York’s offense has sputtered. While only playing in 11 games last season, Jones threw for 2,428 yards last season and had a career-high 3,027 in his rookie season.
NFL odds show this could be another tough season for Jones. With new coach Brian Daboll coming in, Jones will have another offense to learn. How Jones adapts to the new system will go a long way to determining what his future is in the Big Apple.
A.J. Dillon over 750.5 rushing yards (-112)
Anyone on the NFL schedule that tries to focus in on the Green Bay Packers’ running game risks being tortured by quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
That is what makes life easier for Dillon, who finished with 803 yards last year on 187 carries. This season may provide more opportunities for Dillon.
Rodgers lost his top wide receiver Davante Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders, and many believe the Packers are looking to rely more on the running game. Dillon has proven to be a durable option and should be able to get over 750 yards.
Tyreek Hill over 1025.5 yards regular season receiving (-112)
When it comes to NFL matchups, few receivers in the league this year cause as many problems as the new Miami Dolphins’ top threat can create.
After asking out of Kansas City, Hill will be eager to prove he can do well without Mahomes. Having Hill may also take the pressure off Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
NFL player stats show that Hill has a lot of big-play ability. In four of the past five seasons, Hill has finished with more than 1,000 yards receiving.
Last season, Hill snared 111 passes for 1,239 yards and nine touchdowns. If Tagovailoa can get him the ball consistently, Hill should be able to get over 1,025 yards in the 17-game schedule.
Stefon Diggs over 1,225.5 regular season receiving (-112)
There have been few recent marriages in the NFL that have worked better than the one between Bills quarterback Josh Allen and wide receiver Stefon Diggs.
In the past two seasons, Diggs was able to catch 100 or more passes from Allen. Last season Diggs finished with a career-high ten touchdowns along with 1,225 yards with an average catch of 11.9 yards.
In Diggs’ first season with Allen in 2020, Diggs hauled in 127 passes for 1,535 yards with eight touchdowns. Allen will continue to look Diggs’ way as his top target. If the Bills can find a way to open up the running game, it should be able to open things up downfield for Diggs.
A.J. Brown under 1000.5 regular season receiving (-112)
The Philadelphia Eagles brought in Brown to help get young quarterback Jalen Hurts up to speed. Hurts made improvements last season but still showed he has happy feet and is willing to run to avoid making a mistake downfield. The Eagles are hoping Brown can return to his old form.
In 2021, Brown finished with a career-low 869 yards on 63 catches. In his first two seasons with Tennessee, Brown was able to just get over the 1,000-yard mark. With Hurts still being inconsistent, Brown will finish under 1,000 yards for the second straight season.
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