One of the Christmas Eve NFL matchups this week is set to take place when the Tennessee Titans host the Houston Texans.
Houston comes into this game with the worst record in the NFL, while the Titans are looking to move a step closer to clinching the division with a victory.
Either way, there are high stakes for both of these teams heading into the final couple of weeks of the season.
Houston Texans Season Forecast
The Houston Texans schedule 2022 presented them so that this year was always going to be difficult. But they have been even worse than anticipated on the year, winning just one game coming into this matchup.
Their NFL team stats have been dismal on defense, especially as they have been the worst team against the run for the bulk of this season.
Their porous run defense could be a real problem this week in particular, as they face a Tennessee Titans team led by Derrick Henry on offense.
Henry has rushed for 200 or more yards in four straight games against the Texans.
Houston needs to do better to slow him down in this game, or it could be another long day for the worst team in the NFL by record.
Moneyline
Opening Line
The Texans opened as huge underdogs on the moneyline, opening at around +340 in that market.
How the Line Has Moved and Why
Since then, the Texans have come down to around +200, a significant shift from the original price.
The questionable status of Ryan Tannehill has a lot to do with this line movement, as the potential for Malik Willis to start this game could give the Texans a way better chance to win.
What Could Make The Bet Lose
There is clearly a lot that could make the Houston Texans lose on the moneyline. Chief among them is the presence of Derrick Henry, who has gashed the run defense of the Texans on a regular basis over the last few seasons.
Spread Line
Opening Line
The Texans vs Titans spread opened at 8.5 and has come down considerably since then.
How the Line Has Moved and Why
Now, the Texans are just five-point underdogs, with the line moving in their favor by 3.5 points. The Tannehill news is a huge driver of that line movement, with bettors backing the Texans as considerable underdogs once that news came out.
What Could Make The Bet Lose
With the point spread under a touchdown, it is entirely possible that the Texans still do not cover. After all, they lost by a touchdown to the Titans already this season and could do so again.
Total
Opening Line
The opening total for this contest was 41 points, and that has also come down.
How the Line Has Moved and Why
The current total for this game is 36.5 points, as the Titans’ offense could be much worse than usual if Tannehill does not play.
What Could Make The Bet Lose
This bet could lose if Derrick Henry has a big game. He may not score enough touchdowns to hit the total himself, but he could put the Titans in scoring positions even if Tannehill does not play.
Texans Betting Trend to Know
Despite losing their last two games, the Texans are 2-0 against the spread in their last two outings.
Tennessee Titans Season Forecast
Coming into this season, Tennessee Titans predictions had them as the clear winner of the AFC South. They have jumped out to a lead in the division in the first 15 weeks of the NFL schedule.
But they are up by just one game over the Jacksonville Jaguars going into Week 16.
This week, the Titans will aim to get the better of the Houston Texans at home. They have beaten Houston once this season, but they could be in trouble at the quarterback position this week.
If Ryan Tannehill’s ankle prevents him from playing, it could be Malik Willis at quarterback, which could put more pressure than usual on Derrick Henry to perform.
Moneyline
Opening Line
On the moneyline, the Titans opened as -425 favorites against the Texans, meaning bettors would have to risk $425 to win $100.
How the Line Has Moved and Why
The biggest factor behind the Titans’ moneyline moving to -240 is the NFL injury report. Ryan Tannehill’s questionable designation has made this game tough to bet.
What Could Make The Bet Lose
If Houston finds a way to stop the run in this game, the Titans could easily fall despite being a sizable moneyline favorite throughout the week.
Spread Line
Opening Line
As for the Texans vs Titans spread, the Titans opened up as 8.5-point favorites in what appeared to be a straightforward game at home.
How the Line Has Moved and Why
The point spread for this contest has moved down to five points. Injuries have such a drastic impact on NFL point spreads, and that is especially true when the quarterback position is involved, as it is here.
What Could Make The Bet Lose
The offense of the Titans could cause Tennessee to fail to cover the Texans vs Titans spread. They will have to go incredibly run-heavy if Tannehill cannot go, and that predictability could cost them.
Total
Opening Line
The total for this game opened at 41 points and is significantly lower now.
How the Line Has Moved and Why
The over/under for Texans vs Titans is now 36.5 points, as bettors will have to make a decision on a low total thanks to the potential for a game between Malik Willis and Davis Mills at quarterback.
What Could Make The Bet Lose
With such a low total, one blown coverage on defense or one missed ball on offense could be the difference between a bettor’s play on the total winning or losing.
Tennessee Titans Betting Trend to Know
Tennessee has lost four straight games, both straight up and against the spread.
Most Profitable Players of this Matchup to Bet On
Derrick Henry
The first of our NFL free picks pertaining to players is to take Derrick Henry to go over his rushing yardage total.
His NFL player stats against the Texans have been incredible, as he has averaged over 200 yards per game in the last four games against his division rival. Expect him to get up around 200 yards again here.
Davis Mills
Next, it is worth looking at Davis Mills to go over his passing yardage total.
While this year’s NFL team standings do not reflect well on Mills and the Texans, Mills has put in some rock-solid performances over the last two weeks against the Cowboys and Chiefs.
Ryan Tannehill
Finally, it is worth backing the quarterback of the Titans to go under their passing yardage total. Whether it is Tannehill or Willis, the top priority of the Titans will be giving the ball to Derrick Henry on the ground.
Expect them to minimize pass attempts and for the yardage total at quarterback to stay under as a result.
NFL Pick: Titans -4 (-110)
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