The Toronto Maple Leafs are on the precipice of making history tonight. With a win in game five, the Maple Leafs will move forward to the second round in the NHL playoffs bracket for the first time since 2004 and ending a streak of seven consecutive first-round exists.
However, the three-time reigning Eastern Conference Champion Tampa Bay Lightning isn’t going down without a fight, and a Lightning win in game five will trigger panic in Leafs’ nation that another first-round collapse is imminent.
We’ll review the NHL odds, stats, and trends to make our Lightning vs Maple Leafs betting picks for game five.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Odds
We must review the odds and betting records to make successful Lightning vs Maple Leafs betting picks.
The Tampa Bay Lightning (+1.5) are the road underdog, listed between +130 and +135. The Toronto Maple Leafs odds (-1.5) are listed as the home favorite, with odds between -155 and -160. The Lightning have a 40-46 ats record, while the Maple Leafs are 41-45 ats.
The total goals line is set to 6.5. The over is listed at -115, while the under is listed at -105. Toronto has a 41-41-4 over/under record, while Tampa Bay has a 45-36-5 over/under record.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Information
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs
Location of the game: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON.
Date & Time: Thursday, April 27th, 2023, 7:00 PM ET
How to watch: TBS | CBC | TVAS | Bally Sports Sun
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Analysis
Game five is the eighth meeting between the Lighting and Leafs on the 2022-23 NHL schedule. Toronto holds the head-to-head season series edge 5-3 between these NHL teams.
Tampa Bay Lightning Performance Recap and Analysis
Tampa Bay has averaged 4.0 goals per game and a 29.4% powerplay conversion rate in the series’ first four games. Defensively, the Lightning gives up 4.75 goals per game, while the penalty kill operates at 64.7%.
We expect Andrei Vasilevskiy (34-22-4, 2.65 GAA, .915SV%) to get the start in game five for Tampa. Vasilevskiy’s stats have been horrible since the NHL standings have stopped mattering, posting a 1-3-0 record, a 4.33 GAA, and a .856 SV% in the postseason.
Key Injuries
Defenseman Eric Cernak is listed as out on the NHL injury report. Cernak’s absence from most Tampa Bay Lightning games in this series has significantly affected Tampa’s defensive structure.
Betting Trends to Know
Toronto has won five of the last six meetings. The over is 5-0 in the previous five Lightning vs Maple Leads games and 7-1 this season.
Toronto Maple Leafs Performance Recap and Analysis
The Toronto Maple Leafs are averaging 4.75 goals per game in the playoffs, while the powerplay is converting at 35.3%. Defensively, the Maple Leafs are giving up 4.0 goals per game, while the penalty-killing unit is operating at 70.6%.
Toronto will start Ilya Samsonov (27-10-5, 2.33 GAA, .919 SV%) for game five. Samsonov has a 3-1- record, a 3.72 GAA, and a.876 SV% in the playoffs.
Key Injuries
Goalie Matt Murray, defenseman Erik Gustafsson, and left-winger Michael Bunting are unlikely to play in game five.
Betting Trends to Know
The road team is 4-1 in the last five games.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Picks
Moneyline: The first of our Lightning vs Maple Leafs betting picks is to take Toronto to make history and win on the moneyline.
Over/Under: The over is 7-1 in Lightning vs Maple Leafs games this season, including the last five games. Take the over.
Spread: We’re taking the Maple Leafs to cover the spread.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Score Prediction
- Score Prediction: Toronto Maple Leafs 5 – Tampa Bay Lightning 3
- NHL Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs ML, Over.
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