The historic UFC 285 is coming to Las Vegas this weekend with a stacked card from top to bottom. In the co-main event slot, we get to see an all-time great in Valentina Shevchenko, defending her women’s flyweight belt yet again, going up against Alexa Grasso.
Read further for the official UFC 285: Valentina Shevchenko vs Alexa Grasso betting analysis and prediction before placing your weekend bets for this event. Let’s win some money together and expand your knowledge of betting on MMA.
Shevchenko vs. Grasso Information
UFC 285: Valentina Shevchenko vs Alexa Grasso
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States.
Date and Time: March 4, 2023. 10 PM ET.
How to Watch: ESPN+ | https://livestreamsports.co/
Last Fight Record
Shevchenko defeated Taila Santos via split decision last summer in her last appearance in the octagon.
Grasso earned this title shot with an impressive unanimous decision victory in a main event bout against Viviane Araujo last October.
Shevchenko vs. Grasso Betting Analysis
Valentina Shevchenko
You know you are in for a treat when you see a Shevchenko fight on the UFC schedule. She is one of the most technical mixed martial artists to ever live. We’ve gotten to watch her dominate the UFC flyweight division for almost a decade now.
Shevchenko has a very nice 23-3 record, with her only losses coming twice to the women’s MMA GOAT Amanda Nunes at a bigger weight division and to the all-time great Liz Carmouche in 2010. Shevchenko has 15 finishes: eight via KO and seven coming from submission.
“Bullet” has accumulated an average of 3.19 significant strikes landed per minute in her UFC career while only absorbing 1.90 significant strikes per minute. To add to that dominant striking she possesses, she still averages 2.53 takedowns per 15 minutes and a 70% takedown defense. All-around skills are the name of Shevchenko’s game.
Alexa Grasso
Grasso is a tough, fiery Mexican fighter with many striking skills and a whole bunch of heart. With her 15-3 record, Grasso has 4 KO victories and one submission win. Her only three losses of her career have come twice to former two-time UFC champion Carla Esparza. Then she got choked out by the great Tatiana Suarez.
Even though her weakness has clearly been grappling in the UFC octagon, she has made up for it with great striking at a high volume. Alexa has averaged 5.14 significant strikes landed per minute but has also absorbed 4.02 in that minute.
Grasso has a noticeable skill gap in all the striking techniques and positions on the ground grappling. Grasso faces the biggest fight of his UFC career this weekend, and she’ll be ready to go. This will be a hard-fought battle.
Updates
No injuries were reported to the NSAC.
Shevchenko vs. Grasso Betting Preview
After breaking down the UFC 285: Valentina Shevchenko vs Alexa Grasso betting analysis, let’s get into the betting lines and how this fight could play out.
UFC odds have Shevchenko as the massive -625 betting favorite to start fight week. This isn’t surprising after knowing the lines of the previous Shevchenko title fights, but seeing a title fight with these odds is still concerning.
With Grasso being a +450 underdog, that pick has a ton of value. We might be getting over our heads since we saw Amanda Nunes lose last year, but you can never count anybody out at this level.
The over/under is set at 4.5 rounds for this one. This is a good line because both women haven’t shown serious quick finishing ability in recent memory. Does it feel like this fight is going to go into the championship rounds, but is Grasso’s only chance to win to catch Shevchenko early?
One of the more interesting betting lines is Shevchenko winning by decision at +205, compared to her winning inside the distance at -130. This is starting to look like the two lines we will choose from for the pick this weekend.
Shevchenko vs. Grasso Betting Prediction
We know that UFC predictions are very difficult to make on any given weekend. Shevchenko has shown dominance that has only been replicated once or twice in MMA history, so she is an easy pick to raise her hand at UFC 285.
You simply can’t bet against Shevchenko against anybody but Amanda Nunes at this point in her career. She is too good in every aspect of a fight and will be prepared like the professional and champion that she always has been.
So now we know who the pick is, how can we get the best value on a bet? After breaking down all the betting lines and analytics in this bout with the UFC 285: Valentina Shevchenko vs Alexa Grasso betting analysis, we are going to have to get creative.
Let’s hit the Shevchenko winning via decision at +205. This is a method of victory bet that you should have a lot of confidence in, unlike most of them in MMA. Shevchenko is going to be able to control the fight in the striking exchanges and will be able to score takedowns to make sure she closes out rounds.
The key to this prediction is toughness and competitiveness of Grasso. She has probably been drilling positions on the ground for months leading up to this exact fight. She will be ready to stay as safe as possible when she gets to the ground.
Her heart and preparation will be what let her survive all 25 minutes against the great Valentina Shevchenko.
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