One of the most intriguing upcoming UFC fights this weekend is this featherweight bout between prospects Fernando Padilla and Luis Pajuelo. They both are young and hungry and bring their own set of unique skills to the octagon on Saturday night’s scores and odds.
Padilla vs. Pajuelo Picks

- Pick: Pajuelo +132
Read more for an official Padilla vs Pajuelo prediction ahead of making any of your own UFC picks on this weekend’s betting slate.
Fernando Padilla vs Luis Pajuelo Information
Fernando Padilla vs Luis Pajuelo
Location of the fight: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
Date & Time: March 23, 2024. 10 PM ET main card start
How to Watch: ESPN, ESPN+
Last Fight Record
Padilla is coming off a decision loss to Kyle Nelson last September at Noche UFC.
Pajuelo is coming off a Dana White’s Contender Series win via first-round TKO over a tough Robbie Ring.
Fernando Padilla vs Luis Pajuelo Betting Analysis
Fernando Padilla
Padilla is a Mexican fighter with a professional MMA record of 15-5, including 5 TKO/KO wins and 8 submissions. He has 10 first-round finishes in his career and has won 5 of his last 7 bouts. He’s a brown belt in BJJ at 10th Planet Jiu-Jitsu as well. It’s on record at UFC.com that his favorite grappling technique is a rear naked choke and his favorite striking technique is his knees.
Padilla has a unique featherweight frame as a 6’1” orthodox with a 76” reach. In his two UFC appearances, Padilla averages 5.51 significant strikes landed per minute while absorbing 5.81. He has a 100% takedown defense and hasn’t scored a takedown himself yet in the octagon.
Luis Pajuelo
Pajuelo is a Peruvian mixed martial artist with a professional MMA record of 8-1 with 7 wins by TKO/KO so far at the age of 29. He is coming off a Contender Series win over Robbie Ring via first-round TKO, earning his UFC contract. He’s also a national champion boxer in his home country of Peru.
Pajuelo is listed as a 5’10” orthodox boxing-style fighter with a 69” reach. In his DWCS bout, he averaged 9.15 significant strikes landed per minute and 5.81 absorbed per minute–landing at a 61% clip. He stuffed 66% of takedowns in that bout as well.
Updates
The UFC and ESPN have reported no injuries.
Fernando Padilla vs Luis Pajuelo Betting Preview
This UFC Fight Night event is very difficult to bet on because almost every single fight has very close odds. This Padilla vs Pajuelo prediction will be determined after previewing the lines and studying the film on both guys.
Starting with the UFC fight odds, Padilla is going into this one as the -157 betting favorite over the debutant. Pajuelo is at +132 odds with a +225 line to win inside the distance. The over/under is set at 1.5 rounds as well at BetUS.
Stylistically, Padilla is going to be a tough matchup physically for anybody in the featherweight division. His long arms and legs make it tough for fighters to understand the distance they need to be at to be safely in front of him.
Pajuelo is a tough dude with some good hands and tons of heart. The biggest upside to him from watching the tape is how comfortable he is in the pocket. You can tell he is a boxer because he is calm in boxing range, with his eyes open and ready to react to anything while in there.
The outcome of this fight will depend on who can execute their strategy more effectively. Padilla will use long front kicks and straight shots to control the distance and keep Pajuelo at the end of his strikes. Pajuelo will need to try to close the distance and get on the inside of Padilla’s long reach.
Fernando Padilla vs Luis Pajuelo Betting Prediction
After closely looking at this matchup and the betting lines for it, the official Padilla vs Pajuelo prediction is that Pajuelo will get his hand raised on Saturday night.
This is a very close fight and a coin flip, but Padilla seems not as dynamic and physically strong and is potentially soft to the body. Pajuelo will come forward with pressure and get on the inside of that long reach, landing heavy shots to the body and head. This is a great underdog pick for this weekend’s card.
- Pick: Pajuelo +132
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