The BMF title is back on the line again this weekend at UFC 300 when Justin Gaethje looks to defend it against fan-favorite Max Holloway. Will this belt change hands in an upset fashion? Or is Gaethje going to prove to be too big and too dangerous for someone to take the bragging rights away from him?
Gaethje vs. Holloway Picks
- Picks: Fight to go to decision (+100) & Holloway (+138)
Read more for the official Gaethje vs Holloway prediction before placing any bets on any of the upcoming UFC fights this weekend.
Gaethje vs. Holloway Information
Justin Gaethje vs Max Holloway
Location of the game: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
Date & Time: April 13, 2024. 10 PM ET PPV main card start
Where to Watch: ESPN+ PPV
Last Fight Record
Gaethje is coming off winning the BMF title in a second-round TKO over Dustin Poirier at UFC 291 last July.
Holloway is coming off a third-round KO win over The Korean Zombie in the UFC Singapore main event last August.
Gaethje vs. Holloway Betting Analysis
Justin Gaethje
At the age of 35, Gaethje holds a 25-4 professional MMA record, with 20 TKO/KO wins and 1 submission. He is the current #2 ranked lightweight contender and BMF champion, looking for a title shot with a win this weekend. Before MMA, Gaethje was an NCAA D-1 wrestling All-American at the University of Northern Colorado.
Gaethje appears in the records as a 5’11” orthodox striker with a 70” reach. His incredibly fun fight style leads him to average a whopping 7.35 significant strikes landed per minute while also absorbing 7.50 per minute. He also holds a solid 75% takedown defense.
Max Holloway
Holloway is an American mixed martial artist with a professional record of 25-7, including 11 TKO/KO wins and 2 submissions. He is the #2 ranked featherweight in the UFC and making his second appearance in the lightweight division this weekend. He is a former featherweight champion with three title defenses.
Holloway is a 5’11” orthodox boxer with a 69” reach at the age of 32. He averages a ridiculous 7.17 significant strikes landed to 4.75 absorbed per minute ratio with a 59% striking defense. He also has a stingy 84% takedown defense in his back pocket.
Updates
Neither the UFC nor ESPN has reported any injuries.
Gaethje vs. Holloway Betting Preview
This event on the UFC fight schedule deserves your attention and extra work to be able to understand how awesome these matchups are. This BMF title bout is between arguably two of the best fighters to ever strap up a UFC glove. We need to look closer at the betting lines and study the film on both men.
Starting with the UFC odds, Gaethje is coming in as the minimal -158 betting favorite over the +138 Holloway. This demonstrates that the UFC community on social media was mistaken in deeming this an easy win for Gaethje—indeed, choosing Holloway as a betting pick is very smart, and one should view this fight as a coin flip.
No Gaethje betting insights can predict what exactly will happen in the octagon on Saturday night. These two are very different in style, but both have the heart of a gladiator and will be willing to put everything on the line.
Gaethje is an explosive puncher and kicker, fighting with controlled chaos ever since starting to work with the great Trevor Whittman as his head coach. His leg kicks can change a fight after only one lands, and he ends his combinations with a devastating left hook that changes the opponent’s face by the end of every fight with Gaethje.
Holloway is a slick boxer with an incredible fight IQ due to years of experience fighting at the highest level. Even though he arguably has the best chin in the UFC, opponents rarely touch him cleanly. The way he moves his feet to change angles and move around the octagon is elite and fun to watch.
Gaethje vs Holloway Best Bet and Prediction
This is another matchup where we can talk all day about the skills these two have. The bottom line is that making this bet is truly like flipping a coin, and it’s very difficult to feel confident about any UFC bet you choose.
Our official Gaethje vs Holloway prediction is that this fight will go to a decision (+100) and Max Holloway will get his hand raised. People are overlooking him immensely online and they forget how good he is.
Holloway is probably going to be the bigger fighter in the octagon on Saturday night and he will still be faster. He is going to be able to control this fight by setting the pace, mixing up strikes to every area of Gaethje’s body, and even mixing in some wrestling.
This scenario will make Gaethje to tire quickly, allowing Holloway to take advantage and let his hands go.
- Picks: Fight to go to decision (+100) & Holloway (+138)
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