Dallas Wings vs. Phoenix Mercury Betting Analysis and Predictions

It’s difficult to see a path to the playoffs for the Phoenix Mercury, but they could go a long way in helping themselves when they host the Dallas Wings at 10:30 p.m. ET on Friday at the Footprint Center. Phoenix (14-20) is one of four teams with the same record while competing for two spots.

This week, the Mercury learned star guard Diana Taurasi would miss the rest of the season with a quad injury and also that Skylar Diggins-Smith was out indefinitely due to personal reasons.

The Wings (17-17) are locked into the sixth seed in the WNBA playoffs and can choose to rest players if it would like. Dallas has clinched a playoff berth in back-to-back seasons for the second time since moving to the metroplex, also doing so in 2017 and 2018.

Yet they haven’t won a playoff series since the Detroit Shock reached the Finals in 2009. That skips over six seasons in Tulsa (one playoff appearance) in franchise history.

So it’s been a long drought, and the Wings, who are steadily improving, could potentially break through after the regular season wraps up on Sunday.

Let’s go over this Wings vs. Mercury betting analysis and try to find out the best bets.

Last Game Records

The Wings lost 91-73 on Wednesday when they hosted the New York Liberty (14-20), despite 19 points by Marina Mabrey and another 17 by Teaira McCowan — both higher than any Liberty player.

Dallas converted 34% of field goals and 37% of 3-pointers, such low percentages that winning the rebounding (by one) and turnover (by three) margins didn’t matter.

With only eight players, the Mercury lost 86-77 at home to the Minnesota Lynx (14-20) on Wednesday. Without their stars, it was Sophie Cunningham leading Phoenix with 24 points, Shey Peddy adding 21, and Meg Gustafson with 15. Diamond DeShields, a key addition from Chicago in the offseason, was 3 for 12 with seven points and ten assists.

Matchup Information

Wings vs. Mercury Betting Analysis

WNBA odds show the Wings are 2-point road favorites with an over/under of 164. They are slight favorites on the moneyline at -130 with the Mercury +110, though it opened at -111 and -103, respectively.

Both teams are league average or worse in offensive and defensive categories. The Wings aren’t without a key player, either, as the team announced Arike Ogunbowale – tied for third in the league in scoring at 19.7 points per game – will likely miss the first round of the playoffs with a hip injury.

That makes basketball betting a little tricky when the stars are thrown out, so here’s a deeper look at each team.

Dallas Wings Stats

Dallas is the fifth highest scoring team in the league but hasn’t done so very efficiently. They score 82.2 points per contest but are ninth in field goal percentage (42.8%) and 3-point percentage (33.6%). They have the second worst free throw percentage of 76.6% and are eighth in rebounding at 33.9 per contest.

Defensively they are seventh, allowing 82.5 points per game, and are the third worst team allowing opponents to convert 45.8% of shots. They are better on the perimeter, however, holding teams to 33.8% on 3-pointers, which ranks fourth.

Allisha Gray and Mabrey each average 13.3 points per game, the new team-high with Ogunbowale out. McCowan is at 10.7 points per game. Satou Sabally, who is out indefinitely, and Ogunbowale combine for 31.0 points per game.

Phoenix Mercury Stats

The Mercury were already struggling without their two stars being sidelined. Offensively they are seventh, scoring 81.4 points per game, but are 10th in field goal percentage (42.6%) and 11th in 3-point percentage (32.6%).

Defensively they are 10th, allowing 84.5 points per game, and are ninth in opposing field goal percentage (44.0%) and 11th in opposing 3-point percentage (36.3%). They are also the second worst rebounding team (31.2 boards per contest) and allow the most (37.7) per contest.

Largely hurting was the missing presence of Olympian Brittney Griner, who was detained in Russia in February and was recently sentenced to nine years in prison. It’s taken an emotional toll on the Mercury, with Diggins-Smith expressing those frustrations in a recent press conference.


There are no further injury updates. Though the Wings and Mercury each are looking to sign a player under the injury exceptions for Ogunbowale and Taurasi, respectively.

Wings vs. Mercury Betting Preview

WNBA picks data show 63% of public bets are on the Wings against the spread while 56% see the over hitting. For the series, the Wings are 6-0 against the spread in the last six meetings in Phoenix and 3-1-1 against the spread in the last five, regardless of location. The over is 6-2-1 in the last nine meetings in Phoenix and the same record over the last nine regardless of location.

This season, the Wings are 20-13-1 against the spread and 19-15 on over/unders. The Mercury are 14-19-1 against the spread and 17-17 on over/unders. The head-to-head battle has the wings 2-1 straight up though they are 1-1-1 against the spread and 2-1 on over/unders.

Wings vs. Mercury Betting Prediction

The over has hit at 159 and has gone each way at 168.5 in the three previous meetings. Though without the stars on either side, it’s possible this game goes under and can also be much closer than the two double-digit wins (one by each team).

But the Wings have the mismatch in the paint with McCowan matching up against Gustafson, who was struggling to make a roster ahead of this season. It will be imperative to exploit that and match up with Cunningham on the perimeter for the Wings to win.

We’ll take Dallas -1.

How to bet on Wings at Mercury

Find your favorite sportsbook that offers WNBA lines and pick a unit that you can afford to lose and still live off of. We’ll use $100 to easily explain the odds.

A $100 bet on the Mercury +110 would net a $110 profit and $210 total payout. It would take $130 bet on the Wings to profit $100 or total payout of $230. Both the spread and over/under are the same -110 odds.

A bet on Wings -1 means they must win by two or more to cash, while the Mercury must win outright to cash +1 against the spread. The over cashes if the two teams score 165 points or more while the under cashes if it is 163 points or less.

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