WNBA

New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Betting Analysis and Predictions

The Chicago Sky lost the Commissioner’s Cup on Tuesday, yet still won the WNBA Finals title last fall. Now at 21-7, they are in the driver’s seat for the top seed in the playoffs with a switch that takes the top eight teams, regardless of conference, and seeds them based on record. But it is still a one-game lead over the Las Vegas Aces.

WNBA Odds for Today

The Sky welcome the New York Liberty (10-17) at 8:00 PM ET on Friday at Wintrust Arena in Chicago. New York is one of six teams chasing the final three playoff spots, but sit two games behind the Phoenix Mercury (13-16) who lead the group of six.

The Sky are favored by 10 with the Liberty +10 at even odds (-110). The over/under has even odds (-110) as well and is set at 164.5. The Liberty moneyline is +415 while the Sky moneyline is -580.

WNBA Score Record

The Liberty’s last game was on Sunday, an 83-80 win over the Sky in which they covered the +7.5 point spread and the under 164.5 hit. That game was in New York. The Sky lost 93-83 to the Aces on Tuesday despite being 2.5 point home favorites.

The over 172.5 hit. They lost out on a $500,000 player pool to split, which is huge given the discrepancy in women’s basketball salaries, and $165,000 additional for Sky charities.

Liberty vs. Sky Betting Analysis

New York Liberty Analysis

It makes sense that the Liberty are in the bottom third of the league. They are the third worst team, scoring 79.0 points per game.

Their 42.7% field goal efficiency is ninth, though they are fifth in 3-point percentage (34.8%) and free throw percentage (81.3%).

Liberty Roster Performance

But Sabrina Ionescu doesn’t have enough help. Earlier this season she became the first player in league history to have a 30-point triple-double.

She’s averaging 17.2 points, 7.2 rebounds and 6.1 assists per game. Natasha Howard is solid, averaging 15.1 points and 7.0 rebounds per game.

But beyond them, nobody else is consistently in double figures and has played at least 20 games. Betnijah Laney is a candidate but is out with a knee injury and Marine Johannes got a late start to the year.

Liberty’s Defense

Defensively, the Liberty are eighth, allowing 84.1 points per game, but are first in forcing opponents into a 42.9% field goal percentage.

On the perimeter, however, they are ninth in allowing opponents to convert 35.1% of 3-point attempts. They also allow 36.6 rebounds per contest to opponents, the third worst rate.

Chicago Sky Analysis

The Sky are among the best in basketball on both ends of the court, but particularly offensively. They are second, scoring 85.6 points per game, and are the most efficient from the floor (47.6%) and free throw line (82.7%). Their perimeter game is a little shaky at a league average 34.7% on 3-pointers.

Sky Defense

Defensively they are fourth, allowing 79.5 points per game. They are fifth in forcing teams to convert 42.9% of field goal attempts and 34.1% of 3-point attempts.

The Sky also allow 33.3 rebounds per contest, the third best rate while grabbing 35.9 of their own, which ranks fourth.

Sky Roster Performance

Six players average double figures, making it difficult to stop them at any given time. Adding Emme Meesseman and Azura Stevens to the core of:

  • Kahleah Copper
  • Candace Parker
  • Allie Quigley
  • Courtney Vandersloot

Has allowed the Sky to reload in defense of their championship.

Updated Injury Report

Chicago’s injury report is clean. Laney is out till early August with a knee injury for New York and Michaela Onyenwere is questionable with a knee injury.

Liberty vs. Sky Betting Preview

While it spans several seasons, the over is 7-1 in the last eight meetings in Chicago. Though more recently, the under is 4-1 in the last five meetings regardless of location.

WNBA picks show 56% of public bets are on the Liberty against the spread and 65% of public bets are on the over.

For the season, the Liberty are 14-13 against the spread and 13-14 on over/under. Meanwhile, the Sky are 14-14 against the spread and 14-13-1 on over/unders.

Liberty vs. Sky Betting Prediction

There’s no reason for the Sky to lose this game but a double-digit point spread is a lot to cover in basketball betting, regardless of level.

We’ll take Liberty +10 and maybe sprinkle a few dollars on their moneyline, though the Sky are the likely winners and are much safer given the moneyline odds.

Find your favorite sportsbook offering this game. We’ll use $100 for an example to explain how the odds work, but only bet what you’re comfortable losing and can still live off of.

A $100 bet on Sky -580 means one would have to bet $580 to profit $100 for a total payout of $680. A $100 bet on Liberty +415 would profit $415, meaning a total payout of $515.

Who to Bet On?

Betting against the spread means a Liberty bet cashes if they lose by nine point or less, or win outright. A bet on Sky -10 means they need to win by 11 or more to win. A 10-point Sky win would refund all bets with no payout.

Similarly, a bet on over 164.5 means the teams need to combine for 165 points or more to cash. A bet on under 164.5 needs the teams to combine for 164 points or less for the ticket to cash.

For both against the spread and over/under bets for this game, the odds are -110 across the board, so a bet of $110 and win would pay out $210 ($100 profit).

WNBA Pick: Liberty +10 (-110)

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