The Phoenix Mercury and Minnesota Lynx tip off the second half of the season at 8:00 PM EDT on Tuesday. Check the Mercury vs Lynx Betting Analysis below.
The Mercury (10-14) are one of five teams battling for position in the WNBA standings and hoping to reach a coveted playoff spot.
The Lynx (8-15) is at the bottom of that grouping, and the two are at the basement of the Western Conference Standings.
Western Conference Standings
One of the difficulties the Mercury has faced is the absence of Brittney Griner, who remains detained in Russia since her arrest in February.
It’s been emotional off the court, surely, and her presence has been missed on it as an interior threat on both ends of the court.
WNBA odds today show the Lynx are favorites at -5.5 and -235 on the moneyline versus the Mercury at +180. The over/under was not listed as of this writing.
Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx
Mercury Stats
Despite having great guards and a solid offense, the Mercury is the worst perimeter shooting team in the league, converting 32.4% of 3-point attempts.
Still, they have the fourth-best scoring offense at 82.2 points per game and are sixth, converting 43.9% of shots from the field.
They’ll struggle on the glass, ranking as the worst team while pulling in 30.8 rebounds per game and allowing teams to secure 35.8 rebounds per game (ninth defensively).
They are also ninth defensively, allowing 84.8 points per game, a 45.1 shooting percentage, and a league-worst 38.0% from 3-point range.
Mercury Lineup Breakdown
All that despite having Skylar Diggins-Smith, who is averaging 18.9 points, 5.2 assists, 4.0 rebounds, and 1.7 steals per game.
One of the greats, Diana Taurasi, is scoring 15.8 points with 4.1 assists per game. Newcomer Diamond DeShields is scoring 13.3 points per game.
Sophie Cunningham is converting 39.0% from the 3-point range and is someone to watch in this matchup.
Lynx Stats
The Lynx’s defense over the last seven games has been noticeably improved. They’re allowing teams to score 78.7 points per game during that stretch, down from the league’s eighth-best mark of 83.0 points allowed per game.
They also allow teams to shoot 44.0% from the field and 35.1% on 3-pointers, each ranking eighth. Minnesota is the best rebounding team, though, grabbing 37.0 rebounds per game and holding opponents to the second-best rate of 31.9 per contest.
Lynx Offense Ranks Better
They have been better offensively, scoring 81.9 points per game, which ranks fifth. They’re converting 44.6% of shots, ranking fifth, but are 33.8% 3-point shooters, the third-worst mark as is their 77.1% free throw percentage.
Coming off a dunk in her final All-Star game, Sylvia Fowles was named to the team while leading the Lynx at 14.9 points and 9.2 rebounds per game.
Pairing the 6-foot-6 center with forwarding Jessica Shepard, who is 6-3, is why Minnesota has had such success rebounding and interior scoring.
Mercury vs. Lynx Betting Trends
- The under is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Minnesota
- The under is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings regardless of location
- The Lynx are 11-5-2 against the spread in the last 18 meetings in Minnesota
- That number grows to 35-15-2 in favor of the Lynx over the last 52 regardless of location
- The Mercury are 10-13-1 against the spread and 13-11 on over/under
- The Lynx are 13-10 against the spread and 11-9-3 on over/under
Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx Predictions
WNBA picks against the spread vary. The Lynx are turning a corner, it appears, having won five of their last seven games, including a sweep of the Mercury, 84-71 on June 21 and 100-88 on June 23.
They were favored by two at home and covered that in the 12-point win. The over 167 hit in the second game while the first game’s under 168.5 hit.
For what it’s worth, the Mercury is 4-2 since that sweep. It’s a classic game where it’s two teams with opposing strengths.
Who to Bet On?
The Mercury’s guard play is unmatched, but they’ll have to hit their perimeter shots while at a size disadvantage on the interior on the other end.
Fowles and Shepard should have solid nights. Look for Cunningham’s 3-point shooting to be a key. Our Mercury vs. Lynx betting analysis prediction here is the Lynx -5.5.
WNBA Pick: Lynx -5.5
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