The Seattle Storm have their backs against the wall, and it could be the final time Sue Bird plays in front of her home fans at 10 p.m. ET on Tuesday at Climate Pledge Arena.
The Las Vegas Aces have a 2-1 series lead with an opportunity to close it out and book their trip to the WNBA Finals.
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces
Storm vs. Aces best bets should be on the Aces. They won the season series 3-1, including a 109-100 win to close the regular season and clinch the best record in the league and home court advantage throughout the playoffs.
However, Las Vegas Aces odds in Game 4 have flipped since they opened (more on that later). During the season series, the Aces were 3-1 against the spread, and the over/under was split at 2-2.
In the playoffs, however, the Storm are 2-1 against the spread, and the under is 2-1. Game 1 was a three-point Storm win, while Game 2 was a five-point Aces win.
Teams’ Previous Scoreboard
The Aces built a quick lead in the first quarter but the Storm battled back the rest of the game to eventually tie it and head to overtime when the Aces outscored the Storm by 12 to secure a 110-98 victory and take a 2-1 series lead.
A’ja Wilson was brilliant with 34 points and 11 rebounds. Guard Chelsea Gray created a difficult one-two punch with 29 points, 12 assists, and converting 5 of 9 3-pointers. The Aces had a commanding 46-31 rebounding margin.
Seattle had six players reach double figures, including 20 points, 15 rebounds, and six assists from Breanna Stewart.
Bird and Jewel Loyd each had 17 points, while Tina Charles added 16 points. Bird had eight assists as well.
Storm vs. Aces Analysis
If the Aces dictate the tempo as they did on Sunday, it will be easy over cash. Las Vegas featured the league’s best offense, scoring 90.4 points per game.
They converted 46.0% of field goal attempts, ranking third, and were second in 3-point percentage, converting 36.1% of attempts.
Aces Defense
Defensively, their numbers suffered because of that tempo. They were ninth in allowing 84.1 points per game.
Opponents converted 43.7% of field goal attempts, ranking fifth, and shot a remarkable 35.6% from 3-point range, which was third worst.
That’s an area where the Storm can attack as they had the best 3-point shooting percentage in the league, converting 36.1% of attempts.
Storm Defense
They were fifth in scoring 82.5 points per game and sixth with a 44.2% field goal percentage. They were better defensively, however, holding teams to 78.4 points per game, ranking third.
The Storm also held teams to 32.0% shooting from 3-point range, the best mark in the WNBA. Teams shot 43.4% from the field overall, ranking fourth.
Both teams struggled in the rebounding category, however. The Aces had a -0.8 rebounding margin while the Storm were -2.9 in per-game averages.
Odds Breakdown
The Storm are favored by one point with an over/under of 167.5. That’s a flip from the line opening at Las Vegas -1. The Moneyline is -110 for both the Aces and Storm.
Betting trends show the over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Seattle. The Aces are 9-20 against the spread in their last 29 trips to Seattle.
Storm Odds
The Storm were 18-18 against the spread despite a 22-14 straight-up record. They were 21-15 on over/unders.
For the playoffs, they are 3-2 against the spread, and the over is 3-2 as well. Both unders were in this series with the Aces when the total was at least 171 points.
The overs had two that were below 160, and then in Sunday’s Game 3, that was 165.
Aces Odds
The Aces posted an 18-18 against the spread record while finishing a league-best 26-10 straight up. They were only 17-17-2 on over/unders despite being the highest-scoring team in the league.
In the playoffs, the Aces are 2-3 against the spread, and the under is 3-2. Their first series with the Phoenix Mercury – who were without their stars – featured spreads of 17 points.
Storm vs. Aces Betting Pick and Prediction
It’s highly possible that Storm vs Aces best bets are siding with the public, which betting data shows 55% of bets are on the Storm to cover -1. Another 57% of bettors are on the over.
People making Storm picks are flipping the spread after its opening. Whether that pays off for them remains to be seen.
The Aces have played strong the past two games, securing victories while winning the rebounding margin. That’s a key in this Game 4.
Wilson’s Scoring Opportunities
The Storm need to work hard to limit Wilson’s scoring opportunities. She’s versatile and can make the defense pay with great passing and skilled shooting.
While the Storm have added Charles, Wilson is a difficult cover due to her agility and strength while playing in her prime. But if the Storm can get it down to guard play, they should have an advantage.
Most Profitable Team for this Matchup
Seattle did everything it could to win and played a lot better in the second half on Sunday. However, the Storm ran out of gas as the Aces took control.
Seattle has a little bit greater depth, and that could bode well for them, but Wilson is the X-factor, and the rebounding margin will be key, especially since Seattle shot 48% from the field and 37% on 3-pointers and were still outrebounded by 15.
Here are our Storm vs Aces best bets:
WNBA Pick: Aces +1 (-110)
WNBA Pick: Over 165.5 (-110)
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