The first tournament of the 2023 calendar year showed that no lead is safe on the PGA Tour, with Collin Morikawa being up nine strokes at one point on Sunday at the Sentry Tournament of Champions but ultimately losing to Jon Rahm, who was the odds on favorite heading into the weekend.
The Sentry Tournament of Champions traditionally has the better field of the two Hawaii stops to start the year, but the Sony Open odds still have some big names at the top of the board. Seven players in the OWGR top 25 will tee it up this weekend.
Sony Open in Hawaii Info and Analysis
Matchup Info
This weekend’s event at Waialae Country Club is a bit more challenging than the Sentry Tournament of Champions in Kapalua. The Maui course has wide-open fairways and inviting greens, while Waialae is more cramped and hard to navigate.
Cameron Smith set a PGA 72 hole-to-par record with a -34 last year in Maui, and Jon Rahm’s -33 in the 2022 event would have been good enough for at least a tie in literally every other tournament for the last 50+ years. Rahm finally captured the Sentry this year with a -27.
Hideki Matsuyama (-23) was the 2022 Sony Open in Hawaii champion, and he’s back to defend his title in this week’s golf betting matchups. Matsuyama is still only the fifth highest on the board for Sony Open odds.
Tom Kim Performance Recap and Analysis
The biggest favorite this weekend in Honolulu is Tom Kim at +1000. Those odds may be because Kim is on fire in the golf standings – which he is – but also have his immense popularity factored in, kind of like they used to have with the “Tiger Tax.”
Kim put together a nice T5 last week at the Sentry playing for the first time at the Plantation Course at Kapalua, so this being his maiden voyage to Waialae shouldn’t be too much of a concern. The 20-year-old Kim has finished in the top 25 of all five events he’s played on the 2022/23 schedule and has been in the top 11 in four of those.
Jordan Spieth Performance Recap and Analysis
When Sony Open odds were released on Monday, Spieth was right behind Tom Kim as the second-highest favorite, but he’s dropped a bit to +1600 as money has come in on Sungjae Im (+1400). Spieth is playing in the Sony Open for the first time since 2019, trying to improve on his 13th-place finish last weekend in Maui.
Spieth has some work to do this weekend, even as the third-highest favorite for Sony Open picks. He not only hasn’t played here since 2019, but he also missed the cut in that event, just like he did at Waialae in 2014 in his debut. Spieth finished third here in 2017, but that was a magical year where he dominated everywhere.
Sony Open in Hawaii Odds
Even though it looked like Morikawa was going to pull out a Sentry Tournament of Champions win at +1600 odds last weekend, the top favorite Rahm pulled out the win at +700. That field featured 17 of the top 20 golfers in the OWGR, so does that actually give the chalk play Kim a solid value at +1000, considering his competition is a bit weaker (statistically) this week?
Matsuyama has some value at +1800 as the returning champion, and although his course history here was atrocious on his six first tries, he’s gotten top 20 in three straight trips to Waialae.
Looking further down the odds board, Tom Hoge (+2200) continues to play well, with a third-place finish last week in Maui. Hoge won the QBE shootout to close things down in 2022 and got third place to open 2023, so he’s in the zone right now.
Russell Henley (+2000) is looking for a bit of revenge after Matsuyama got hot with back-to-back 63s on Saturday and Sunday to force a playoff here in 2022. Henley choked with a double bogey on the extra hole while Matsuyama birdied to get the win.
J.J. Spaun (+4000) found himself in the mix with Rahm, Morkawa, Max Homa, Kim, Tony Finau, Scottie Scheffler, and Matthew Fitzpatrick last weekend as he finished fifth at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. Of that group of big names, only Kim is back this week, so Spaun has some nice ROI here.
Sony Open in Hawaii Betting Picks
Do you go chalk here again, backing up Rahm’s win in Maui by taking Kim at +1000 in Honolulu?
Spieth would be a player to avoid here because he missed the cut the last time he played, and that was four years ago. It’s also going to be hard for Matsuyama to repeat.
It wouldn’t be a shocker if Im won this event either, as he can fly a bit under the radar this week, with Kim, Spieth, and Matsuyama demanding most of the attention.
Sony Open in Hawaii Prediction
Hoge is the play this weekend. He’s finished in the top three in his last two events, and his biggest Sony Open stats is 75.6% of his GIR on this young season – 10th on the Tour. That’s very important on the challenging track of Waialae
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