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MLB Picks

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles Picks, Predictions & Odds

The Tampa Bay Rays are hoping to keep pace in the most competitive division in baseball when they visit their American League East rival Baltimore Orioles. A 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch on Monday is the beginning of a four-game series.

The Rays (52-43) won six of their last seven entering the All-Star break – including taking two of three from Baltimore – but lost their last two against the Kansas City Royals. The Orioles (47-48) had a 10-game winning streak from July 3 to July 13 – when the MLB schedule was kinder – but have since lost four of their last six against the Rays and New York Yankees.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles

Rays vs. Orioles: MLB Odds for Today

Rays vs. Orioles odds show the Rays are moneyline favorites at -125 as opposed to the Orioles at +105. The Rays’ run line is -1.5 (+125) while the Orioles are +1.5 (-145). The over/under is set at 8.5 runs with -115 MLB odds on the over and -105 odds on the under.

Rays vs Orioles Betting Preview

Corey Kluber Analysis

Corey Kluber gets the start for the Rays. He is 6-5 with a 3.73 ERA and 1.12 WHIP (Walks, Hits per Innings Pitched). 

The Rays are 10-8 in his starts, and the over/under is 6-12. He has gone six innings in each of his last three starts, including allowing four earned runs on eight hits in a 7-5 Rays win over Baltimore on July 17. 

He allowed two runs on four hits across six innings in a 2-1 Orioles victory on June 19. He allowed two earned runs on five hits across three innings in a 7-6 Orioles win on May 22. He went 4.2 innings of scoreless ball in an 8-0 Rays win on April 10.

Austin Voth Analysis

Austin Voth gets the start for Baltimore. He is 1-1 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. The Orioles are 4-1 in his starts, and the over/under is 3-2. 

Voth has been a reliever for most of the season but has been stretched out as a pseudo starter. He did not allow a run across 2.1 innings in Baltimore’s 6-4 win on July 16. Same for his 2.2 innings against the Rays on June 19, a 2-1 Orioles win. 

Rays Pitching Analysis

This season, pitching has been a strong suit of the Rays, ranking sixth as a staff. They allow 3.95 runs per game, a .233 opposing batting average (seventh), and .682 opposing OPS (seventh). Where they’ve really struggled is offensively.

The Rays have had starters in and out of their lineups. They are scoring 4.25 runs per game (22nd) with a .240 batting average (19th) and .689 OPS (22nd). They’ve had key injuries, including outfielders Manuel Margot, Kevin Kiermaier, and Mike Zunino, who are all expected back at the earliest by mid-August.

Orioles Pitching Analysis

The Orioles are also better with their pitching staff, but it isn’t as dramatic a gap. Baltimore Orioles pitchers are allowing 4.38 runs per game, which ranks 16th in the league. 

Opponents have a .256 batting average against (25th) and OPS of .734 (24th), so the Orioles are stranding runners at a higher rate. They are the fifth worst team at striking opponents out, doing so 7.6 times per contest.

Orioles Offense Analysis

The offense is coming around a little bit but is still 21st, scoring 4.26 runs per contest with a .234 batting average (25th) and .689 OPS (23rd). They do have some decent power and speed but don’t always put it together when they need to.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Picks and Predictions

MLB picks today show the public is favoring the Rays’ moneyline with 62% of bets, and another 54% of bets are on the under.

 However, the over is 4-1 in the last five meetings. While the Rays have dominated the series – 14-5 in the last 19 games in Baltimore and 47-17 in the last 64 regardless of location – the Orioles are the hotter team right now.

The season series favors the Rays 7-5 so far, with an over/under record split at 6-6. That’s why MLB betting can be tricky because it doesn’t always play out as history suggests, and a full list of information should be considered before making a pick.

Rays Injuries

Harold Ramirez, a .329 hitter for the Rays, is out indefinitely to add to their lengthy list of injuries. But they should still have Randy Arozarena leading the offense at the top. He has 21 doubles, 12 home runs, 44 RBIs, 42 runs scored, and 19 stolen bases – all of which are either first or second among the team. 

Wander Franco should also be in the lineup, though he’s only played 58 games this season and hasn’t found his rhythm. Ji-Man Choi is another hitter to watch, especially supplying some power in the middle of the lineup.

Orioles Strategies

Voth has been lights out against the Tampa Bay Rays since joining the Orioles mid-season. If the Orioles can generate some runs early off Kluber, it should bode well for the Orioles as they look to steal the first game of the series and get back to .500 before facing Cy Young frontrunner Shane McClanahan on Tuesday.

Public bettors seem to have the right mindset with the under. Aside from his last start, Kluber has been sharp against the Orioles, and his counterpart, Voth, has been equally good against the Rays. At least early in the game, it should be low-scoring; it’s just a matter of if the bullpens can do their jobs. The under 8.5 looks appealing.

Who to bet on?

Meanwhile, the Rays had a rough start to the second half, losing two of three to the Kansas City Royals and scoring five runs across the two losses. They’ll need to keep pace with an Orioles offense scoring 5.2 runs per game over their last nine.

For that reason, we’re rolling with the Orioles +105.

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