The Cincinnati Reds came back from the All-Star break in style, taking two of three from the second-place St. Louis Cardinals over the weekend. Now the Reds will try to keep that momentum going in Monday’s MLB picks as the Miami Marlins make the trip to the Great American Ballpark.
Miami had a good return from the break as well, taking two of three to win their weekend series in Pittsburgh. The Marlins did drop a one-game set with the Rangers 8-0 last Thursday and fell 1-0 against the Pirates on Saturday, so this is an offense to be wary of in Monday’s MLB matchups.
Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds
Marlins vs Reds: MLB Odds for Today
This is a somewhat tough game to set a line on, but the Marlins vs. Reds odds have Cincinnati as -134 favorites according to MLB odds. That makes sense due to the Reds’ strong showing over the weekend against the Cardinals and Cincinnati, being 6-1 over their last seven at home.
Can any value be squeezed from Miami at +114? The Reds are starting a rookie pitcher and are also just 2-7 in their last nine against a LH starter. The biggest concern in the Marlins vs. Reds odds is the Miami offense, which has been held to a run or less in five of their last seven games. Monday’s O/U for runs is 9, which seems high with these Miami bats.
Marlins vs. Reds Betting Preview
Trevor Rogers Analysis
MLB picks today will be Trevor Rogers (4-9, 5.46 ERA) getting the start for Miami. He is on a personal three-game losing streak, but at the same time, the left-hander would have to be nearly perfect as the Marlins have scored a total of three runs over that span.
Rogers is coming off 4ER allowed last time out in a 4-0 loss to the Phillies. Once again, zero run support, but Rogers didn’t allow a walk and made one major mistake that ended up a Yairo Munoz 2-run HR. It should be noted that Rogers’ three-game losing streak has come all at home, and he’s got a 3.95 ERA on the road compared to 7.05 at LoanDepot Park.
Nick Lodolo Analysis
The Marlins vs. Reds odds have Cincinnati favored even though Nick Lodolo (2-3, 5.81 ERA) is pitching in this battle of left-handers. Lodolo was on the IL from April 24th to July 5th with a lower back strain, and he’s gone 1-1 with a 6.17 ERA in three starts since returning.
Lodolo gave up 5ER over just 2.0 IP in his last start against St. Louis Cardinals and what the rookie really needs right now is rhythm following over two months on the IL. Having not started in nine days because of the All-Star break is definitely not rhythm.
Marlins vs. Reds Picks and Predictions
Miami tallied an 8-1 and a 6-5 win over Pittsburgh this weekend, so it’s not like their offense is totally inept, but when these bats are cold, they are absolutely frigid. That being said, the Miami Marlins should be able to get something going against Lodolo, who is making just his seventh big league start in Monday’s MLB predictions.
Rogers has taken the loss in three straight for Miami, but some of that also has to do with him getting just three total runs of support over that stretch. Each of those defeats was in South Beach as well, so maybe a change of scenery can reinvigorate the left-hander who had a 2.64 ERA in 2021.
Over/Under
The run total is 9 for this game which seems pretty lofty since there’s a chance that Miami scores one or zero runs any time they take the field lately.
The ‘under’ is also 6-2 in the Reds’ last eight home games, although it is forecasted to have a slight wind blowing out to left-field on Monday night at the Great American Ballpark. Cincinnati averaged six runs/game over their weekend series with St. Louis, and with neither starting pitcher being especially sharp as of late, this looks like a play on the ‘over.’
Moneyline
Miami looked decent over the weekend, taking two of three against Pittsburgh, but they also added another shutout to their resume in Saturday’s 1-0 loss. This is an inconsistent team that can’t be trusted right now, and even though the Marlins seem to have the pitching edge, any starter can look good against the Miami offense recently.
Have to take Cincinnati at the -134 in Monday’s Marlins vs. Reds Betting odds.
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