Many believe that the 2022 AdventHealth 400 will be the most predictable race on the NASCAR 2022 schedule, which is fair and it really wouldn’t take much given how irregular and unpredictable this season has been. And even though the NASCAR drivers have yet to race at Kansas this year, the track is very similar to that of Last Vegas, so at least we have some stats to use for our NASCAR picks.
But as always, while we should read the stats and figures, we should also trust the eye test and make the picks according to what we saw from the drivers in recent races. But who do we believe has what it takes to deliver in Kansas and claim the 2022 AdventHealth 400?
AdventHealth 400 Betting Picks
Kyle Larson
Priced at close to +700 on most online NASCAR betting sites, Kyle Larson is one of the favorites to win the upcoming race. He is going through quite a roller-coaster of a season, which continued last weekend at the Goodyear 400 when he placed 36th.
His finish was quite disappointing, and it ended his streak of four top-6 finishes across the last five races. Nevertheless, he is the defending NASCAR Cup Series champion and rightly priced as one of the drivers to watch at short NASCAR odds.
Not only should Larson be considered a threat on any track, but he is also very efficient in Kansas. He won the fall race in 2021 and has three straight top-10s in the spring from 2017 to 2019 with sixth, fourth, and eighth-place finishes.
But even though Larson can clearly show up and win this weekend, you have to ask yourself whether you trust him to show up and deliver or whether Larson will again slip and produce another disappointing performance.
Alex Bowman
Priced as one of the outsiders, Alex Bowman is, in our book, an excellent pick with the offered NASCAR odds. Admittedly, he is by no means one of the top drivers heading into this weekend’s race, but Bowman has shown enough for us to feel confident about his chances to go all the way.
Bowman started the season with a 24th and 25th finishes at Daytona and Fontana but has since finished outside of the top-15 only once (Darlington). Moreover, he has claimed three top-5s, including fifth at Dover and second at COTA, and won the Las Vegas race.
Perhaps his most important result was the Las Vegas victory, knowing that the LVS track is very similar to the one the drivers will compete on this weekend. However, when we talk Kansas race, we must also note that Bowman has done well here before, with an 18tth-place finish in 2021, eighth in 2020, and a runner-up in 2019.
Chase Elliott
Chase Elliott continued with his solid form last weekend when he placed fifth at Darlington, making his fifth top-10 in a row and second top-5. He had previously claimed his first victory of the season at Dover and is at three top-5s on the year.
Moreover, Elliott drove well in Las Vegas earlier this year (9th) and has a fifth-place finish in the 2021 Kansas spring race. But it gets better.
Since 2019, Elliott has finished inside the top-10 in all but one race (12th in 2020) and has four top-5s, including a fifth and a runner-up finish in 2021. Having shown that he has found his form and with a solid track record, Elliott is hard to ignore as one of the main favorites to win this weekend.
AdventHealth 400 Betting Trends
- Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, and Kyle Busch are the multiple winners in Kansas.
- Joe Gibbs Racing is the most successful team with five wins (2012, 2013, 2016, 2020, 2021), followed by Hendricks Motorsports (2014, 2015) and Team Penske (2011, 2019).
- Toyota cars have historically dominated on this track, having won six races.
- The only manufacturers besides Toyota to win more than one Kansas race were Chevrolet and Ford
- Since Kansas Speedway is very similar to Las Vegas Motor Speedway, drivers who deliver in Las Vegas usually have a strong showing in Kansas.
AdventHealth 400 Betting Prediction
Kyle Larson is a very appealing pick for the AdventHealth 400, but mainly due to his ceiling as a driver. We all know what peak Larson can do, and if he ever reaches that level again, it would be hard not to bet on him to win every race.
The problem is that Larson has yet to show the consistency this season for us to view him as someone who will consistently deliver. So far, Larson has shown both very high highs and low lows, making him a hit-or-miss pick rather than someone who will surely step up and deliver week after week.
As such, we won’t be betting on Larson but instead look at Chase Elliott, who has recently found his form. He drove well in Las Vegas and has been solid across the last two weeks. Moreover, Elliott has very strong figures at Kansas, so there is very little that would suggest he won’t be in the mix to win on Sunday.
As our longshot pick, we’re on Alex Bowman, who has been driving well lately. He also won the Last Vegas race and came close to winning the 2019 Kansas race. Bowman is a solid choice at very generous betting odds as an outsider pick.
Prediction: Chase Elliott to win
Prediction: Alex Bowman to win
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