The series is back even after the Boston Celtics flipped the script on the Milwaukee Bucks. Now the two teams will compete for a series advantage at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee.
After struggling in Game 1, Celtics stars Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum combined to score 59 points on 21-of-38 shooting to lead the Celtics to a 109-86 victory. Boston converted 47.5% of field goal attempts and shot 46.5%, including 20 makes, from 3-point range. That was the difference as the Bucks were just 3-for-18 (16.7%) on 3-pointers.
The defending champions had a triple-double from former MVP Giannis Antetokoumpo in winning Game 1 101-89, but he struggled to shoot in Game 2, converting 11-of-27 attempts for 28 points. Jrue Holiday only made seven of his 20 shots for 19 points.
Milwaukee stole home court though and will look to return to form with an energetic and passionate fan base behind them.
Celtics at Bucks Stats
Boston Celtics Stats
One of the top developments for the Celtics was how they played without Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart, who sat out with an injured quadricep. Filling in was Derrick White, and though the former Spurs guard did not score, he was plus 22 and contributed on the defensive end.
It’s part of the Celtics’ story this season as the top defensive team in the league. They held opponents to 104.5 points per game, 43.4% from the field and 33.9% from 3-point range — all the best marks in the league.
Boston flipped a minus-five turnover differential plus-five differential. They also flipped the rebounding edge to win it in Game 2.
The Celtics had five scorers in double figures, including Grant Williams scoring 21 off the bench. He played 35 minutes which was only less than Brown, Tatum and Al Horford. A larger lineup impacted Antetokounmpo and the Bucks’ from getting into the paint and closeouts.
That formula may be tweaked, or it could stay the same while inserting Smart back into the lineup. He’s listed as probable for Saturday’s game as of this writing. Payton Pritchard and White combined for six points, eight assists and seven rebounds in his Game 2 absence.
Milwaukee Bucks Stats
An interesting wrinkle that could factor into the remainder of the series is the timetable of Khris Middleton’s return. There has been no hint that he’ll return for Saturday’s game from his knee injury. It has a mid-May timetable, but so did Devin Booker before he returned earlier than anticipated to the Phoenix Suns lineup.
Still, the Bucks have proven they can compete with, perhaps, the hottest team in the league despite Middleton’s absence. The two keys were winning the turnover and rebounding margins. Even losing those in Game 2, a marginally better 3-point could have gotten it to a single-digit deficit.
Milwaukee is one of the top offensive teams in the league, ranking third in points per game (115.5) and fifth in 3-point percentage (36.6%). There’s reason to believe in positive regression toward the man. Getting turnovers and securing defensive rebounds to push the pace in transition is step one.
Antetokounmpo has also shot well under his regular season percentages of 55.3% from the field and 72.2% from the free throw line. Being able to drive and finish will allow him to later create shot opportunities for his teammates, which may lead to creating and hitting open looks.
Matchup Information
Celtics at Bucks Betting Trends
- NBA betting odds show the Bucks are favored by three points and -150 on the moneyline.
- The over/under is set at 213 points.
- Betting stats NBA have the public favoring Milwaukee 70% against the spread and 57% on the over.
- The Celtics are 8-1 against the spread in the last nine meetings, including winning the last four in Milwaukee.
- The over is 6-0 in the last six meetings in Milwaukee, and it has hit in eight of the last 11 meetings overall.
- Boston is 49-38-1 against the spread and 42-44-2 on over/unders through the regular season and playoffs.
- Milwaukee is 43-46 against the spread and on over/unders through the regular season and playoffs.
Celtics at Bucks Betting Prediction
After totally drastic games to start the series, NBA picks are hard to sort through. Especially with the injury information and being two days out, it’s tough. Some who say how to bet on the NBA will encourage amatuer bettors to go against the public, which isn’t a bad strategy. Zigging where others zag in tight contests can be fruitful.
The series itself is truly even with the teams splitting the last 10 meetings. The Bucks won three straight, including the final two of the regular season and Game 1. Boston had won the three games before that.
Expect Milwaukee to establish Antetokounmpo early as a scorer and for Holiday to mix in ball screens of his own. On the other end of the court, the Celtics should have Smart back who is having the best season of his career as a full-time point guard. Despite the results being different with his on/off splits, it’ll be advantageous to bring him into the mix. The Celtics will also need a big game from Grant or Robert Williams defensively.
In a battle of contrasting styles, we’ll side with the Celtics +3 as the playoffs can sometimes bring a slower pace. Even at +130 moneyline odds, those are worth taking a flier on.
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