The Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder look to stay afloat in the best division in the National Basketball Association.
Each team enters Thursday’s 8:00 p.m. ET matchup at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, with a 4-3 record.
Only the Minnesota Timberwolves are worse – with one more loss – at 4-4, and everybody in the Northwest Division is within 1.5 games of one another.
Perhaps it is the Thunder who have surprised people this season. A relatively young roster has allowed people to cash in on Thunder matchups with a 6-1 record against the spread.
Meanwhile, those making Nuggets picks would be disappointed with their 3-4 start against the spread. Each team is 3-4 on over/unders.
The Nuggets won the first meeting of the season but failed to cover Nuggets vs Thunder odds.
A dive further into the numbers makes it questionable they are favored by so many points, but will it influence the pick?
Nuggets vs. Thunder Odds Breakdown
Nuggets vs Thunder odds show Denver is favored by 6.5 points with an over/under of 229.
The moneyline is a little more in favor of the Nuggets than most on the NBA schedule. The Nuggets are -240, and the Thunder are +190.
Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets have been on the roller coaster this season with some surprising results and have certainly contributed to the parity in the Northwest Division.
They have split with the Utah Jazz and Los Angeles Lakers while beating the Golden State Warriors and losing to the Portland Trail Blazers.
Nuggets at the NBA Team Stats
NBA team stats show they are one of the better offensive teams but not quite there defensively. The Nuggets rank 13th in scoring 114.1 points per game and are highly efficient.
They rank seventh with a 47.7% field goal percentage and third with a 39.4% 3-point percentage. Oddly enough, they are the fourth worst free throw shooting team at 72%.
Nuggets’ Defense
Defensively, though, they are sixth-worst in allowing teams to score 117 points per game and convert 47.7% of field goal attempts. They are also 23rd in allowing opponents to convert 36.6% of 3-pointers.
They are still outrebounding teams, as they probably should, ranking ninth with 45.7 per contest and ranking 15th defensively in allowing 43.7 per game.
Nuggets’ Injury Report
The NBA injury report is up in the air for Denver. Three point guards are all on the list:
- Bones Hyland is probable (hip)
- Ish Smith is questionable (calf)
- Collin Gillespie is questionable (leg)
Hyland is one of seven Nuggets scoring in double figures this season, led by the reigning two-time NBA MVP, Nikola Jokic. The superstar center is averaging 21.0 points, 11.1 rebounds, and 8.4 assists per game.
Jamal Murray is still working his way back into rhythm, playing 26.5 minutes per game while averaging 13.8 points, 3.2 assists, and 2.8 rebounds per game on shooting slashes of .415/.333/.556.
NBA player stats show Michael Porter Jr. has been very solid, scoring 18.5 points per game to go with 7.5 rebounds per contest and converting 48.9% of 3-pointers.
Oklahoma City Thunder
It’s been a streaky season for the Thunder so far. They lost their first three games – twice against the Timberwolves and once against the Nuggets – before winning the next four against:
- the Los Angeles Clippers (twice)
- Dallas Mavericks (in overtime)
- Orlando Magic
The only discernible reason the Thunder have been as good as they are is they’ve ramped up their defense.
Thunder Ranking Numbers
They rank 11th in allowing 110.9 points per game and are highly efficient, holding teams to 46.1% field goal shooting, which ranks 14th but are fifth on the perimeter, holding teams to 32.4% from 3-point range.
Offensively and rebounding, there have been many struggles. The Thunder rank 20th in scoring 112.9 points per game.
They have the fourth-worst shooting percentage at 44.2% and the second-worst 3-point percentage at 29.5%. While they are sixth in rebounding, grabbing 46.4 per game, they are third worst at allowing 49.1 per contest.
2022 NBA Draft
It’s unfortunate that Chet Holmgren, who the Thunder selected second overall in the 2022 NBA Draft, suffered a season-ending injury before he could make his debut.
The 7 foot 1 center with some guard ability would have been fun to watch and helped the Thunder on both ends of the court.
Gilgeous-Alexander Performance Recap
But the young core continues to develop together. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been great in leading the team.
He’s averaging 31.5 points, 6.8 assists, 4.8 rebounds, 2.5 steals, and 1.3 blocks per game on shooting slashes of .516/.318/.976. It’s an unreal pace.
Only Lugentz Dort (14.0), Tre Mann (13.0), and Josh Giddey (12.5) are averaging double figures scoring alongside him. So that is why they’ve been playing better of late.
Nuggets vs. Thunder Betting Pick and Prediction
Looking back to the Oct. 22 meeting, the Nuggets won 122-117 but didn’t cover a nine-point spread on the home court.
It took a 20 for 38 (53%) 3-point effort to bail out 18 turnovers and a porous 18 for 31 (58%) free throw percentage to escape with the win.
Porter led Denver with 22 points on 5 for ten on 3-pointers, while Kentavius Caldwell-Pope was next of the six double-figure scorers with 21 points on six for ten on 3-pointers.
The Thunder also had six in double figures, led by Gilgeous-Alexander with 28 and followed by Giddey (19) and Mike Muscala (18).
Both teams have been better defensively, particularly on the perimeter, so expect those numbers to go down with each team more in rhythm.
But the Nuggets vs Thunder odds are, well, odd, given that the Nuggets were favored at home by nine and only won by five.
Who to Bet On?
Now they are 6.5-point favorites on the road, where they are 1-3 straight up, and the Thunder are 3-1 straight up? Odd.
Public betting data shows they favor the Thunder, with 56% of bets against the spread and 52% are on the over.
Thinking it may be a defensive game, we’ll take under 229 and go against the public and take Nuggets -6.5. It’ll be difficult for Gilgeous-Alexander to continue his hot pace.
NBA Pick: Nuggets -6.5 (-110)
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