Bowl season has finally arrived, allowing some quirky matchups in the NCAAF schedule. Neither coach will lead their teams who go to the Fenway Bowl when the Cincinnati Bearcats and Louisville Cardinals meet at 11 a.m. ET Saturday in Boston.
In addition to coaches not playing, several players sit out, either to pursue professional careers or due to transferring.
Teams’ Performance Recap
The Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3) have had a great season that led to coach Luke Fickell taking the same job at Wisconsin.
The Cardinals (7-5) lost coach Scott Satterfield to Cincinnati once it became home. Even odder is both teams have to share a sideline at Fenway Park, a baseball stadium.
It’s just another weird quirk among NCAAF games during bowl season. Those who are making Cincinnati vs. Louisville betting picks will find that the Cardinals are favored by one point.
NCAAF odds show the over/under is 41.5. Cincinnati Bearcats odds are +100 on the moneyline, while Louisville’s is -120.
Matchup Information
Last Game Records
Cincinnati’s Last Game Record
Both teams are entering off losses in the regular season finales. The Bearcats lost 27-24 on a Michael Pratt 30-yard touchdown pass to Duece Watts with 5 minutes, 10 seconds left to give Tulane the lead and secure its spot in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game, which it went on to win.
Cincinnati had 235 yards on the ground, highlighted by Ryan Montgomery’s 95 yards and two touchdowns.
Louisville’s Last Game Record
Louisville Cardinals lost its in-state rivalry game to the Kentucky Wildcats, 26-13. While the score was within two touchdowns, it wasn’t close as the Wildcats led the entire way and were dominant until they gave up a late touchdown drive.
Talented QB Malik Cunningham was hurt for Louisville early in the game and left after six passes, including an interception and a touchdown run.
Backup Brock Domann was 14 of 21 for 129 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Running back Jawhar Jordan rushed for 145 yards.
Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Louisville Cardinals Betting Analysis
Cincinnati Bearcats
The Bearcats had one of the best defenses in the country this season. They rank 23rd, allowing 20.3 points per game and 328.5 yards of offense.
They were 17th against the pass in holding teams to 186.4 yards per game and 49th against the rush, allowing 142.1 yards per game. Cincinnati had nine takeaways, which ranked tied for 82nd.
Cincinnati’s Offense
Offensively there were some struggles. The Bearcats scored 31.1 points per game, which ranked 46th and was 65th in amassing 392.8 yards of offense per game.
They struggled on the ground though, only gaining 136.8 yards rushing, which ranked 88th. Their passing attack was 44th in accumulating 256.0 yards per game.
Third-Leading Rusher
Montgomery was actually the third-leading rusher for the Bearcats. He gained 270 yards and five touchdowns.
Charles McClelland led the group with 834 yards and seven touchdowns, while Corey Kiner gained 351 yards and five touchdowns.
Louisville Cardinals
The Cardinals could not find balance in their offense. They scored 27.2 points per game, which ranked 76th and gained 405.0 yards of offense per game, ranking 54th.
But a large chunk of that was on the ground. They ranked 35th in gaining 193.8 yards rushing while ranking 92nd with 211.2 yards passing.
Louisville Defense
Defensively, Louisville was very good. The Cardinals were 19th in allowing 20.2 points per game and tied for 10th with 15 takeaways.
They were 35th in holding teams to 347.6 yards of offense per game, 34th in holding teams to 206.6 yards passing per game, and 47th in allowing 141.0 yards rushing per game.
Cunningham’s Possible Return
It’s uncertain if Cunningham will return from his college football injuries, but he isn’t listed on the injury report.
He threw for 1,562 yards on a 62.4% completion rate with eight touchdowns and five interceptions. Better yet, he rushed for 565 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Jordan was the team leader with 700 yards rushing to two touchdowns, while Tiyon Evans had 525 rushing yards and six touchdowns.
NCAAF Injury Report
Cincinnati quarterback Ben Bryant suffered a season-ending injury, so it will be Evan Prater who is likely to get the start. He completed 53.8% of his 52 passes for 340 yards with zero touchdowns and one interception.
Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Louisville Cardinals Betting Preview
Cincinnati played many tight games this season and finished 3-8-1 against the spread and 5-6-1 on over/under.
Cincinnati’s Bearcats Preview
The Bearcats were 3-2 on the road. Louisville was 7-5 against the spread and 4-8 on over/under. The Cardinals were 2-4 on the road.
It has been almost a decade since these two teams last played as a member of the AAC. The last matchup was in 2013, back when sports betting was still illegal across most of the United States.
Louisville Cardinals Preview
Those who were making Cincinnati vs. Louisville betting picks would have found that the teams were 4-4 from 2006 to 2013, but Cincinnati was 5-3 against the spread. The over/under was 4-4 in such games.
The Bearcats were 0-3 this season when underdogs of 6.5 points or less and 0-5 against the spread when stretching that to being favored by 6.5 points or less. They didn’t fare well in tight games, which may bode well for Louisville Cardinals predictions.
Louisville was 3-1 when favored by no more than 6.5 points. It was 3-3 when underdogs of 6.5 points or less. So the Cardinals fared slightly better in tighter contests.
Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Louisville Cardinals Betting Prediction
While this game won’t count in the NCAAF standings for anything, even coaching bonuses, the stakes are high for some players who may be getting their first crack at playing time with potential opt-outs and transfers.
Who to Bet On?
Those who are making Cincinnati vs. Louisville betting picks are favoring the Bearcats. They have 63% of public bets against the spread, and 58% are on the over. Those are bold picks, given everything we’ve learned about each team.
Even though the Satterfield era was shaky through his tenure at Louisville, those players will likely want to stick it to him for leaving. Yes, the Cincinnati program is a little more stable, but Louisville was shaky under Satterfield.
Expect a tight, defensive game with both offenses having some wildcards. It will be cold in an outdoor setting. We like Louisville to win and cover -1.
NCAAF Pick: Louisville -2.5 (-110)
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