Crafting a college football parlay this week is going to be an adventure. With a couple of big losses last weekend, the College Football Playoff is on the brink of having new blood, with Alabama and Clemson potentially not making the final four for the first time since its inception.
There are some pretty good NCAAF matchups this week in de facto elimination games. The same would be true when college football expands to a 12-team playoff.
NCAAF Schedule
So it makes for a good NCAAF schedule with something to watch for everybody in each time slot.
For the college football parlay this week, we’re going to look just at point spreads and not worry about point totals or moneylines, even though there are some attractive totals to look at in the North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons and the Arizona Wildcats vs. UCLA Bruins games.
Without further ado, let’s get to the college football odds we like.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Ole Miss Rebels
Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama has lost two road games already this year. One was on a late field goal at Tennessee, and the other was on a two-point conversion at LSU, and each happened within the last three weeks.
The Alabama Crimson Tide, at 7-2 and 4-2 in the SEC, are in jeopardy of missing the College Football Playoff despite having reigning Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young at quarterback and Will Anderson Jr., the country’s best defender, at linebacker.
Top 20 Offense and Defense
They are still top 20 on offense and defense, NCAA football stats show. They rank sixth in scoring at 41.8 points per game and 17th in total offense with 483.1 yards per game.
Defensively they are 14th in allowing 18.3 points per game and 13th in total defense, giving up 303.6 yards per game.
Where they really struggle is generating turnovers with three takeaways on the season, the fourth-worst mark in college football.
They are also 3-7 against the spread in their last ten games in Oxford, Mississippi.
Ole Miss Rebels
Lane Kiffin has one of the best offenses in college football and a bend-but-don’t-break defense. The Rebels, who are 8-1 and 4-1 in SEC play, still have an opportunity to play for an SEC title and/or make the College Football Playoff in a de facto CFP elimination game.
Their rushing attack is third in the country at 267.4 yards per game, led by freshman Quinshon Judkins who has rushed for 1,036 yards and 13 touchdowns.
Tandem back Zach Evans averages 6.3 yards per carry with 680 yards and seven touchdowns. Quarterback Jaxson Dart has thrown for 1,912 yards and rushed for 473 more.
The Ole Miss Rebels like to play with tempo and are 16th in scoring at 37.4 points per game and 11th in total offense at 495 yards per game.
Rebels’ Defense
Defensively they are 34th in allowing 21.6 yards per game and 72nd in total defense while allowing 380.7 yards per game.
This won’t be a game about tempo but rather about who can generate the most turnovers. Given Alabama’s performance on the road, we like Ole Miss to cover.
Pick: Ole Miss +11.5 (-110)
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
Wisconsin Badgers
The Big Ten West has been wild, and a pair of divisional powers meet while still not mathematically eliminated from winning the division, but each team needs to win out.
Wisconsin Badgers has won two straight and is the next leg of our college football parlay this week.The Badgers (5-4, 3-3) still have one of the best defenses in football.
Wisconsin’s Average Numbers
They are 23rd in holding teams to 325.8 yards per game and 24th in holding teams to 20.6 points per game. They are second with 15 takeaways.
The offense has been a bit of a struggle due to college football injuries leading to a revolving door on the offensive line.
The Badgers are 53rd in scoring at 30.8 points per game and still have a strong rushing game, ranking 43rd at 183.3 yards on the ground per game.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa Hawkeyes‘ defense has similarly been good enough to win the West. They are fifth in scoring, holding teams to 14.3 points per game, and third in total defense, limiting opponents to 264.4 yards per game.
Eighth-ranked Rush Defense
Their eighth-ranked rush defense – at 92.8 yards per game – will be put to the test against Braelon Allen, arguably the best back in the Big Ten.
A competent offense wins the West for Iowa (5-4, 3-3). They are 125th (out of 131 Division I teams) in scoring at 17.2 points per game and 129th in total offense at 262.4 yards per game.
But freshman running back Kaleb Johnson has fared well over the last two games, both wins.
NCAAF Standings
While NCAAF standings are on the line, so is the Heartland Trophy, which the Badgers have won in seven of the last nine meetings dating back to 2013.
They are 3-1 overall since Jim Leonhard took over as interim coach and should win as the more talented team.
NCAAF Pick: Wisconsin -1.5 (-110)
Texas Christian Horned Frogs vs. Texas Longhorns
Texas Christian Horned Frogs
The last leg of our college football parlay this week gets back to CFP implications.
Unbeaten TCU (9-0) heads to Austin as the hunted, reaching No. 3 in the playoff rankings under first-year coach Sonny Dykes. He replaced Gary Patterson, who they fired with a statue outside the stadium.
Great Offense and Bad Defense
Great offense and bad defense is the theme. TCU is fourth in yardage at 508.7 yards per game and third in scoring at 43.1 points per game.
Defensively they are 86th in allowing 396.2 yards per game and 74th in allowing 26.9 points per game.
Texas Longhorns
Texas Longhorns (6-3) has looked the part at times, and it’s a wonder where they’d be if Quinn Ewers didn’t get hurt against Alabama.
The offense is 24th in scoring at 36.1 points per game and 30th in yardage at 447.1 yards per game.
Longhorns’ Defense
Defensively they bend (381.7 yards allowed) but don’t break (21.8 points per game allowed). Expect running back Bijan Robinson to be a major factor.
The TCU Horned Frogs are 4-1 against the spread in the last five meetings in Austin, but oddsmakers seem to be up to something with the unranked home team as a touchdown favorite. Turnovers will be key, but we’ll side with the Horns.
NCAAF Pick: Texas -7 (-110)
NCAAF Parlay Pick
NCAAF Pick: Three-legged Parlay (+596)
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