AFC East division rivals take the focus of our NFL Week 3 NFL picks when the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins meet in Miami. Online sportsbooks have the Bills odds listed as the favorites across the board, while bettors will be hoping for a victory in the Dolphins game today.
Buffalo Bills Season Forecast
The Buffalo Bills are a legitimate contender to win the AFC East and make a Super Bowl appearance. Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and Von Miller are all individual impact players who shift the Bills’ odds from underdog to favorite and will drive Buffalo deep into the playoffs.
Moneyline
As of publication, the Buffalo Bills are listed as the favorite on the moneyline, with odds ranging from -200 to -238.
Opening Line
The Buffalo Bills have been the moneyline betting favorite since this game was listed. The Bills odds opened all over the place, ranging from a low of -159 to a high of -238.
How the Line Has Moved and Why
The moneyline has moved and increased the Bills’ odds as the betting favorite, with most online sportsbooks settling with the Bills as a -200 or higher favorite on the moneyline.
What Could Keep This Bet From Winning
If the Buffalo Bills do not take the Miami Dolphins’ new-look offense seriously, Buffalo can lose this game and, in turn, any bet placed with Bills odds as the favorite on the money line.
Point Spread Line
As of publication, the Buffalo Bills are the betting favorite on the point spread, listed between -4.5 and -5 points, at odds ranging from -108 to -110.
Opening Line
Oddsmakers have listed the Bills’ odds as the favorite since the game was listed, with the Bills’ point spread set between -3.5 and -5, with odds ranging from -108 to -110
How the Line Has Moved and Why
The Bills’ odds on the point spread have not moved that much, despite the actual point spread settling between -4.5 and -5.
What Could Keep This Bet From Winning
If this game is close or the Dolphins charge toward another late-game comeback, and you have chosen the Bills to cover the point spread, you’ll likely lose this bet. Only bet on the Bills to cover the point spread if you believe in Von Miller and the Bills’ defense to control the Dolphins’ offense.
Total Points
As of publication, the Bills vs Dolphins total points are set between 50 and 51.5 points, depending on the online sports book.
Opening Line
The Bills vs Dolphins total points have stayed roughly the same since being listed on most online sportsbooks, initially listed between 49 and 51.5 points and primarily remaining there.
How the Line Has Moved and Why
Some sportsbooks initially listed the total points at 49 and have since raised this total to 50, while other sportsbooks have increased the total points from 49 to 50 and even as high as 51.5. These movements are based on the Bills’ offensive promise and performance from Week 1 and Miami’s significant offensive NFL stats production against Baltimore in Week 2.
What Could Keep This Bet From Winning
Good defense, poor offensive execution, weather, and a low-scoring game are all factors that can keep a bet on the Bills vs Dolphins total points from paying out on Sunday.
Buffalo Bills Betting Trends to Know
The Buffalo Bills defeated the defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams to open the 2022 NFL season. As of publication, the Bills are preparing to play the Tennessee Titans in a Monday Night Football showdown to close out Week 2. Buffalo is 1-0 against the spread in 2022 and will likely make that 2-0 after playing Tennessee.
Miami Dolphins Season Forecast
The new-look Miami Dolphins are looking to Tua Tagovailoa to power their offense and emerge as a contender to the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots for the AFC East divisional crown and a Wild Card birth.
Moneyline
As of publication, the Miami Dolphins are listed as the underdog on the moneyline, with odds ranging from +170 to +195.
Opening Line
The Dolphins’ moneyline odds opened with odds anywhere from +140 to +195.
How the Line Has Moved and Why
The Dolphins’ odds on the moneyline haven’t moved all that much since first being listed on many online sportsbooks. On the sportsbooks where Miami’s odds have changed, the Dolphins’ moneyline odds have increased, despite a dramatic comeback victory over the Baltimore Ravens in Week 2 of the NFL season.
Miami has become a more considerable underdog simply from the outstanding play of the Buffalo Bills to start the 2022 season. The Dolphins were on the way to a loss before their late-game comeback, destroying people’s NFL picks and betting tickets in the process. Late-game comebacks do not inspire confidence from bettors and oddsmakers alike.
What Could Keep This Bet From Winning
The Miami Dolphins are the betting underdog for a reason: the Buffalo Bills are the better team, a true AFC contender, and have more talent on either side of the ball. If Buffalo proves to be the better team, you won’t win any bets on the Dolphins on the moneyline.
Point Spread Line
As of publication, the Miami Dolphins are the underdog on the point spread, listed between +4.5 and +5, with odds ranging from -105 to -112.
Opening Line
The Dolphins opened the point spread between 3.5 and 5 depending on the online sportsbook. For the most part, oddsmakers have settled on the Dolphins as the underdog at +4.5 points. Miami’s odds on the point spread have floated from a low of -105 to a high of -112 and currently sit at -110 on most online sportsbooks.
How the Line Has Moved and Why
Miami’s point spread odds have gotten closer on all online sports books since the Dolphins win on Sunday. However, the Dolphins remain the betting underdog.
What Could Keep This Bet From Winning
The Dolphins not playing up to their potential or not having another magical comeback in their back pocket are two reasons picking the Dolphins on the point spread might fail. If you are selecting the Dolphins’ to cover the point spread, you’ll be hoping for a close game decided by a last-minute field goal or a Dolphins win outright.
Total Points
As of publication, the total points for the Miami Dolphins’ next matchup against the Buffalo Bills is between 50 and 51.5 points, depending on the online sports book.
Opening Line
The Bills vs Miami total points have stayed roughly the same since being listed on most online sportsbooks, initially listed between 49 and 51.5 points and primarily remaining there.
How the Line Has Moved and Why
Some sportsbooks initially listed the total points at 49 and have since raised this total to 50, while other sportsbooks have increased the total points from 49 to 50 and even as high as 51.5. These movements will be based on the Bills’ offensive promise and performance from Week 1 and Miami’s significant offensive NFL stats production against Baltimore in Week 2.
Notably, no sportsbook has moved the Bills vs Miami total points odds by more than one point since being listed.
What Could Keep This Bet From Winning
The same statement from the Bills’ total points section above applies to the Dolphins: good defense, poor offensive execution, weather, and a low-scoring game are all factors that can keep a bet on the Bills vs Dolphins total points from paying out on Sunday.
Miami Dolphins Betting Trends to Know
Miami is 2-0 against the spread in 2022, and the Dolphins are coming off a wild fourth-quarter come-from-behind victory over the Baltimore Ravens.
Most Profitable Players of this Matchup to Bet On
- Josh Allen (QB) – Buffalo Bills
- Stefon Diggs (WR) – Buffalo Bills
- Tyreek Hill (WR) – Miami Dolphins
Odds Breakdown
While prop bet odds on these three players are unavailable until after the Bills have played their Monday night game against Tennessee, we can discuss previous prop bets. Miami wide-receiver Tyreek Hill’s prop bet odds for Week 2 were listed at 67.5 receiving yards (-120 Over/-114 Under), 5.5 receptions (-137 Over/+100 Under), and +140 to score a touchdown.
Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs have odds of 800 and 750 (respectively) scoring 2+ TDs against the Titans, and you can expect similar odds against the Dolphins, even if the Bills duo doesn’t add significant numbers to their NFL stats in Week 2.
Check your online sportsbook for updated prop bet odds after the Bills vs. Titans Monday night matchup.
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