Picking a Conn Smythe winner requires anyone making NHL betting picks to look backward and also project forward. Unlike the World Series or Super Bowl MVP, the Conn Smythe award is recognized over the length of the playoffs. With this year’s Stanley Cup, players from both the Colorado Avalanche and Tampa Bay Lightning started laying their claim for the award over a month ago.
Soon enough, one team will triumph and the Conn Smythe will be given out to the most deserving player. Which player will most deserve the award is subjective. Here’s a look at the field and who to keep an eye on as the final series of the NHL season takes place.
Favorites to win the Conn Smythe Trophy Odds
Cale Makar, Colorado Avalanche, defenseman
Makar has the shortest odds to win the Conn Smythe Trophy at +195. Since the award was first given out during the 1964-65 season, 11 defensemen have won the trophy. Two of those winners have come since 2015. The Lightning’s Victor Hedman won in 2020 while Duncan Keith won the award with the Blackhawks in 2015.
NHL betting stats show Makar has accrued the numbers to be a worthy favorite. Makar leads the Avalanched with 22 points, including five goals and 17 assists. He’s put in a heavy workload during the postseason, averaging 27:01 of game time per contest.
A $100 bet on Makar would bring back a $295 ticket, with $195 of profit to the bettor.
Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche, center
While NHL expert picks show that nearly any position can contend for the Conn Smythe, playing center and being captain never hurts. MacKinnon, who was chosen No. 1 by Colorado in the 2013 draft, has long waited for the moment to play in the Stanley Cup Finals. During this postseason run in particular, MacKinnon didn’t want to leave too much to chance.
MacKinnon is second on the team with 18 points. He has scored 11 goals and handed out seven assists thus far. MacKinnon, who is +220 to win the award, will have some serious competition from his teammate Makar. However, if Colorado can win and MacKinnon is able to score some big goals, that may swing some voters’ minds.
Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tampa Bay Lightning, goalie
Vasilevskiy, a former Vezina Trophy winner, has rediscovered his form following what was a difficult start to the postseason for Tampa Bay’s netminder. In the first round against the Toronto Maple Leafs, Vasilevskiy allowed 22 goals in Game 7. Vasilevskiy did strong the series in a strong fashion, only allowing one goal and making 30 saves.
Overall, Vasilevskiy’s numbers have rebounded well in the postseason. Vasilevskiy has compiled a 12-5 record with a 2.27 goals-against average and has a .928 saves percentage. Vasilevskiy is +450 to win the award.
Anyone willing to bet 100 on Vasilevskiy would see a profit of $450. Given Tampa Bay’s dedication to laying out in front of shots to help their goaltender out, Vasilveskiy isn’t a bad bet. He will likely be busy trying to reign in Colorado’s outstanding offensive attack.
How do Conn Smythe Trophy Odds work?
NHL betting odds for the Conn Smythe winner are similar to many other types of futures bets. The early a bet is placed, bettors can typically find better odds. At the beginning of the Stanley Cup, every player is plus money. When placing a bet that is plus money, the payout is more advantageous to the bettor.
These odds are dynamic and will switch throughout the series based on what is happening. It is always to keep an eye on how players perform in each game to try and find value as the series goes on.
How to bet on Conn Smythe Trophy
Making NHL betting picks on a postseason award is best done at the beginning of the series based on what team you think will win. In addition to the favorites above, Tampa Bay Lightning left wing Nikita Kucherov also may be worth a look at +450. Kucherov, who has the most playoff points in the NHL over the past three seasons, has seven goals and leads Tampa Bay with 22 points.
However, this race should come down to the three favorites. Placing a bet on MacKinnon, who has the benefit of strong goal-scoring ability and being the captain is a good bet at +250. Should Vasilevskiy play up to his current level he is also worth a wager at a little over four-to-one odds.
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