There may only be three NHL games on Friday nights NHL scheduled, but there is a heavyweight fight in Florida to serve as the Main Event.
Matthew Tkachuk and the Florida Panthers host inner-state rival and three-time reigning Eastern Conference Champion Tampa Bay Lightning to Southern Florida.
This is the first of four significant divisional NHL matchups between these two playoff contenders. We’ll sort through the stats, odds, and trans to find you the best Panthers vs Lightning betting picks. Puck drop for the Panthers vs. Lightning is set for 7:30 P.M. ET.
Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
Matchup Info
- Venue: FLA Live Arena, Sunrise, Florida
- Date: Friday, October 21, 2022, at 7:30 P.M. ET
- Watch: ESPN+
Florida Panthers
The Florida Panthers enter Wednesday night’s matchup with the Avalanche with a 3-1-0 (W-L-OTL). The Panthers have opened their season strong but will be without number one defensemen Aaron Ekblad, who is on the injured reserve list with a groin injury for at least three weeks.
Panthers’ Best Defensemen
From the time of Ekblad’s injury in a 5-3 loss to the Boston Bruins on Monday, the Panthers’ best defensemen was set to miss at least 11 games.
In their last outing on October 19th, the Florida Panthers defeated the Philadelphia Flyers 4-3. Carter Verhaeghe had two goals, Tkachuk had two assists, and Sergei Bobrovsky made 31 saves to get the victory.
Bobrovsky should start against the Lightning over the backup goalie and future long-term starter Spencer Knight. We strongly recommend checking who the starting goalie will be before placing any wagers.
2022-23 Season
So far in 2022-23, Bobrovsky has a 2-1-0 record, with a 2.75 goals against average and a fantastic .920 save percentage.
Knight has only played one game in 2022, making 24 saves for a .889 save percentage to get the 4-3 win against the Buffalo Sabres.
Matthew Tkachuk will be among the NHL stats leaders at the end of the season and currently leads the Panthers with 6 points (2 goals and 4 assists).
Four Points a Piece
Four players, including Aleksander Barkov and Sam Bennett, have four points a piece for the Panthers. So far, in 2022-23, the Florida Panthers have an 11.1% power-play efficiency rate and an 87.5% penalty-killing efficiency, the latter of which will get tested against the Lightning.
Key Injuries
The Florida Panthers have three key injuries to report. As mentioned, Aaron Ekblad is on the injured reserve list, joining Anthony Duclair.
Ekblad will likely return to the Panthers lineup before Duclair, who is on track for a late-December, early-January return. The Florida Panthers’ defensive core depth will be tested as Brandon Montour is listed as day-to-day.
Betting Trends to Know
According to betting stats we could find for our Panthers vs Lightning picks, the Florida Panthers are 2-1 on the over/under total goals line so far in 2022-23.
The Panthers have a 3-1 record on the moneyline and a 1-3 record against the spread.
Tampa Bay Lighting
The Tampa Bay Lightning enter Wednesday night’s matchup with a 1-3-0 (W-T-OTL) record. After competing in three straight Stanley Cup finals, the Lightning seems to be struggling to start the year, with their only win coming against the Columbus Blue Jackets.
In their last outing, the Tampa Bay Lightning lost 3-2 to the Philadelphia Flyers at home on Tuesday, October 18th. Steven Stamkos scored both goals for the Bolts, while Andrei Vasilevskiy made 21 saves in the loss.
League’s Best Goalies
We know that you can’t start Vasilevskiy in every game and that his early season numbers aren’t indicative of one of the league’s best goalies. We think Vasilevskiy gets the start against the Panthers on Friday night.
Vasilevskiy has a 1-2-0 record, with 2.73 goals against average and a .912 save percentage, while uninspiring backup Brian Elliot has an 0-1-0 record, with a 5.05 goals against average and a .886 save percentage.
This will sound familiar to anyone who has followed the Tampa Bay Lightning for the past six seasons or so:
- Steven Stamkos leads the Lightning with 7 points (6 goals, 1 assist),
- while Nikita Kucherov has five points (0 goals, 5 assists)
NHL Stats
Notably absent from the top of the Lightning’s NHL stats is Brayden Point, who has 1 goal and 1 assist so far this season.
This will also be very familiar: the Lightning power play is excellent at moving the puck and currently operating at 33.3% efficiency.
While the power play has been stellar, Tampa Bay’s penalty killing needs to improve, currently operating at 71.4%.
Key Injuries
Defensemen Phillippe Myers is listed as day-to-day, while Zach Bogosian is on the injured reserve list.
Betting Trends to Know
The Tampa Bay Lightning are 2-2 on total goal wagers in 2022-23. Tampa Bay has a 1-3 record on the moneyline and against the spread.
Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Odds
Online sportsbooks have their game listed very evenly, with more listing the Tampa Bay Lightning as a slight moneyline betting favorite.
In contrast, others will have the Florida Panthers listed as the betting favorite or even. These lines will move before the puck drop as public betting money starts to come in on one of these NHL teams.
Moneyline
The Tampa Bay Lightning are listed with moneyline odds from -109 to -112, while the Florida Panthers are listed between -105 and -110
As of publication for our Panthers vs Lightning picks, the Florida Panthers (+1.5) are the betting favorite on most puck line spreads, with odds between -263 and -278. You can also find the Panthers listed at -1.5, with odds ranging between +188 and +215.
Puck line
The Tampa Bay Lightning (-1.5) are listed as the betting underdog on most puck line spreads, with odds ranging between +200 and +220. You can also find the Lightning listed at +1.5, with the odds between -250 and -256.
Total
The total goals line to consider for our Panthers vs Lightning picks is set at 6.5 on most online sportsbooks, although you can find this game listed at 7 goals.
On online sports books where the puck line is set to 6.5, the over is listed with odds ranging from -130 to -133, while the under is listed with odds ranging from +105 to +110.
For those very interested in a total goals wager for their Panthers vs Lightning picks, online sportsbooks that have this game listed at 7 goals, the over is listed between +114 and +118 odds, while the under is listed between -135 and -145.
Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Picks
The Panthers and Lightning’s defensive units will have their depth tested on Friday night, although Tampa Bay has the better defensive unit taking to the ice.
This game is a pick ‘em, and the odds reflect that. We like Tampa Bay’s offense to exploit the Panthers’ defensive weakness and squeeze out a win. If we’re making a bet on the moneyline, let’s take the Tampa Bay Lighting at the best odds we can find.
Florida and Tampa Bay have the offensive firepower to hit the over. They both have the goaltending to keep this game to the under, and that’s what we expect.
Vasilevskiy vs. Panthers’ Goalie
Vasilevskiy versus either Panthers’ goalie should be a great goaltending battle. We’d side with the under for this Panthers vs Lightning pick.
These lines are all over the place, making it difficult to make a selection. We think the Lightning and the Panthers will keep this game close, regardless of how many goals they score.
This game could end 1-0 or 7-6, depending on how the offenses are clicking and the goaltending performances that night.
Considering you can find the Lightning or the Panthers at +1.5 or -1.5, whom you pick is entirely up to you. Our pick is that no one clears the spread, so find the best NHL odds on the Lightning or Panthers at +1.5.
Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Final Score Prediction
Final score: Tampa Bay Lighting 3 – Florida Panthers 2
NHL Pick: Lightning (-110)
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