The Pittsburgh Penguins are riding a five-game losing streak and face a difficult challenge to end that losing streak, meeting the third-ranked Vegas Golden Knights on Thursday night. Both teams have lineup questions due to injuries and have not played since January 2nd.
We’ll review the important stats, trends, and odds, before making our Penguins vs Golden Knights prediction and NHL picks today.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Vegas Golden Knights Information
Pittsburgh Penguins (19-12-6) vs. Vegas Golden Knights (26-12-2)
Location of the game: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Time: Thursday, January 5th, 2023, 10:00 p.m. ET
How to watch: ESPN+ | NHLPP | Regional Broadcast Partners
Last Game Record
This is the second and final head-to-head matchup between the Golden Knights and the Penguins this season. The Pittsburgh Penguins defeated the Vegas Golden Knights 4-3 in the first matchup.
Brock McGinn, Rickard Rakell, Jake Guentzel, and Kasperi Kapanen scored for the Penguins, with Tristan Jarry making 34 saves to get the win.
Jack Eichel, Reilly Smith, and Shea Theodore scored for the Golden Knights, while Logan Thompson made 43 saves in the losing effort.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Vegas Golden Knights Odds
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Vegas Golden Knights Analysis
Pittsburgh Penguins
The Pittsburgh Penguins enter Thursday ranked sixth in the Metropolitan Division, four points out of third place. The Penguins have lost their last five NHL matchups and six of the last seven.
In the last five games, the Penguins have hit the over twice, with one game ending with six total goals, while two games ended in a 1.5-goal spread.
The under is 3-0-3 in the Penguins’ last six road games, while Pittsburgh is 7-0 in the last seven games against Western Conference teams.
Pittsburg Penguins Stats
Pittsburgh’s offense is ranked 13th overall in NHL stats, averaging 3.3 goals per game, while the powerplay converts at 22%, ranking the Penguins 16th in the league.
Defensively, the Penguins are ranked 15th overall, giving up an average of 3.0 goals per game. Pittsburgh’s penalty killers are among the league’s elite units, ranked second and killing 84.3% of the Penguins’ penalties.
As he has almost every season since being drafted, Sidney Crosby leads the Pittsburgh Penguins players in stats with 43 points (19 goals, 24 assists).
Casey DeSmith (4-7-2, 2.99 GAA, .911 SV%) got the start in the Winter Classic in Boston in the last Penguins game and has started two of the last three games.
Penguins Injury Report
We’d normally expect Tristan Jarry (15-5-4, 2.75 GAA, .918 SV%) to get the start against the Golden Knights on Thursday night. However, according to ESPN, Jarry is listed as out on the NHL injury report, while defenseman Kris Letang is listed on the injured reserve list.
Vegas Golden Knights
The Vegas Golden Knights enter the NHL schedule today, ranked first in the Pacific Division and third overall in the NHL standings with a 26-12-2 record.
The Golden Knights have won the last two games and three of the last five games. Four of the last five games have ended in a one-goal spread, while two games hit the over.
The Golden Knights are 1-4 in the last five games against Eastern Conference competition, while the over is 4-1 in Vegas’ last five home games.
Vegas Golden Knights Stats
Vegas is ranked 11th overall in the NHL, averaging 3.3 goals per game. The Golden Knights are ranked ninth overall on the powerplay, converting on 25% of their opportunities.
The Golden Knights are ranked 11th overall defensively, giving up an average of 2.8 goals per game. Vegas is average on the penalty kill, ranked 16th overall in the NHL, having killed 78.3% of the Golden Knights’ penalties.
If the Golden Knights intend on being a true Stanley Cup contender in the West, they’ll need to improve their special teams’ efficiency rates, especially the penalty kill.
Chandler Stephenson leads the Golden Knights in NHL player stats with 39 points (ten goals, 29 assists).
Calder Trophy candidate Logan Thompson (18-9-1, 2.61 GAA, .915 SV%) has been excellent this season and has played the last six games in a row and eight of the last nine games. Vegas hasn’t played since January 2nd, so there is a chance Thompson gets his seventh start in a row.
If Thompson doesn’t start, the Golden Knights will turn to career-backup Adin Hill (8-3-1, 2.78 GAA, .899 SV%), who has been very good for a goaltender who started the season fourth on the Golden Knights’ depth chart.
Golden Knights Injury Report
Jack Eichel and Shea Theodore are both listed as day-to-day on the NHL injury report for the Golden Knights.
Odds Breakdown
Before we use our Penguins vs Golden Knights prediction to make our NHL picks, we need to review the odds.
NHL odds have the total goals line listed at six goals, although you can find this game listed at 6.5, depending on your sportsbook of choice. The over is listed with odds between -115 and -131, while the under is listed from +102 to -105.
Pittsburgh has a 16-20-1 over/under record, while Vegas has a 17-21-2 over/under record.
The favorite is 8-1 in the last nine matchups between Pittsburgh and Vegas, while the over is 4-0 in the last four matchups.
Pittsburgh Penguins
The Pittsburgh Penguins are the slight Moneyline underdog, with odds ranging between +100 and +104. The Penguins have a 19-18 straight-up Moneyline record.
The Penguins are listed at +1.5 on the puck line spread and listed at -250 on most online sportsbooks. Pittsburgh has a 16-21 record against the spread (ATS).
Vegas Golden Knights
Vegas is the Moneyline favorite, with odds from -118 to -120. The Golden Knights have a 26-14 straight-up record on the Moneyline.
Vegas is listed at -1.5 on the puck line spread, with odds from +188 to +205. The Golden Knights have a 19-21 ATS record.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Vegas Golden Knights Betting Pick and Prediction
Our first Penguins vs Golden Knights prediction is to take the Vegas Golden Knights to win on the Moneyline. Eichel is listed as probable to return to the lineup tonight, while Pittsburgh being without Jarry hurts their chances of winning this game.
This should be a Golden Knights home victory on Thursday night. Take Vegas to win on the Moneyline.
Our second Penguins vs Golden Knights prediction is to take the Pittsburgh Penguins to cover the spread. Four of Vegas’ last five games and last three wins have all been one-goal games, while the Penguins have lost three one-goal games in their five-game losing streak.
We’ll take the Penguins to cover the +1.5-goal spread and keep this close.
Our final Penguins vs Golden Knights prediction is to take the over, despite both teams not hitting the over often in the last five games. The over is 4-0 in the last four matchups, and we expect this trend to continue. We expect another 4-3 game, this time with Vegas taking the win.
NHL Picks: Vegas Golden Knights Moneyline, Pittsburgh Penguins +1.5, Over.
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