SoccerUEFA Champions League

Real Madrid vs Chelsea Betting Analysis and Predictions

Overview

Chelsea will take on Real Madrid in the second leg of a Champions League quarter-final tie this week after Madrid nicked a 3-1 result in the first leg last week.

There is no more away goals rule, so Chelsea must win by two goals to force extra time— and potentially penalties— to keep their hopes of moving on alive. The eventual victor will play the winner of Manchester City and Atletico Madrid.

Recent Form

Real Madrid won last week’s match despite losing the possession battle 57-43% and conceding 20 shots while only registering eight. Karim Benzema scored a hat-trick for the Spanish leaders.

Both teams won their domestic matches over the weekend, Chelsea in a 6-0 dominant victory over Southampton, and Madrid 2-0 over Getafe.

Matchup Information

The midweek Champions League clash between Chelsea and Real Madrid will kick off inside Santiago Bernabeu in Madrid, Spain Tuesday at 3:00 p.m. ET.

If Madrid wins, ties, or loses by one goal, they will advance into the semi-final round; this heavy advantage has them positioned as a favorite in most Champions League betting odds.

Real Madrid vs Chelsea Betting Analysis

Chelsea Betting Analysis

Chelsea had a horrible and uncharacteristic week last week, starting with a 4-1 loss to relegation-stricken Brentford in the English Premier League before their loss to Madrid at home. The Blues had a chance to save the game after Kai Havertz pulled the score back to 2-1 just before halftime, only for goalkeeper Edouard Mendy to make a calamitous error two minutes into the second half. 

Still, the team’s overall performance showed that they can cause problems for their Spanish opposition— especially with a genius tactician in Thomas Tuchel at the wheel. Even he does not like his team’s Champions League odds, however, after responding “no” to the question of if the tie was still alive and for the taking.

Real Madrid Betting Analysis

Madrid is playing with house money in the second leg of the tie; they exacted some revenge in the first leg after Chelsea eliminated them in the semi-final of the same competition last year and now have the ability to sit back, limit chances, and muddy up the game while playing for a draw.

The Spaniards have conceded the second-fewest goals in La Liga this season and are facing a Chelsea team that creates opportunities but struggles to convert them; as a result, many betting guides will tip the under in the coming match.

Updates

Chelsea Updates

Record-signing striker Romelu Lukaku did not feature for Chelsea over the weekend as Tuchel announced that he had Achilles pain and tightness; his status remains in question for the Madrid match. Although the big Belgian’s time in London has not gone to plan, he would have been likely to play if Chelsea needed to dump balls into the box against a team that struggles to defend against headers.

Captain Cesar Azpilicueta recently tested positive for COVID-19 but could return for the match depending on test results. Ben Chilwell remains out as he rehabs an ACL tear.

Real Madrid Updates

Eden Hazard and Luka Jovic will both miss Tuesday’s match with injuries. Center-back Eder Militao, who started last week, will miss the game due to a yellow card suspension.

Nacho will likely fill in for the Brazilian defender.

Chelsea vs Real Madrid Betting Preview

Most sports betting guides have Real Madrid as a slight favorite at home for the coming match; an early goal could all but guarantee the result, but if the Blues can find an opening strike in the first half, it could be a troubling time for Madrid bettors as teams with leads typically struggle to pivot from defending to attacking mid-game.

Chelsea vs Real Madrid Betting Prediction

Chelsea looked much better and played with a real sense of urgency over the weekend, but they will always be defined by their deficiency in front of goal until proven otherwise. It is likely that they will find a goal somewhere, but it is just as likely that Madrid and Benzema expose a weakness in transition and pull a goal back to guarantee their ticket into the next round.

If there is one thing for Chelsea bettors to cling to, it is that they had a higher amount of expected goals in last week’s matchup; if they sew up their back-line and play with more speed— which could be accomplished with a couple of changes to the lineup— they could be a headache for their opponents.

All in all, the best bet is on the under, but if push comes to shove, go for a draw that sends Real Madrid into the semi-final.

Real Madrid has +140 odds of winning to Chelsea’s +190; there are +240 odds on a draw.

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