UFC Vegas 69 is underway this weekend with an exciting women’s flyweight main event in store. What was supposed to be Taila Santos is not Jessica Andrade stepping up on short notice to fight the No.10 ranked flyweight, Erin Blanchfield. This is a big test for the 23-year-old Blanchfield and a massive risk for the No.3 ranked Andrade.
Read along for a deeper look into the UFC this weekend and for what the best Andrade vs Blanchfield prediction is.
Andrade vs. Blanchfield Information
Jessica Andrade vs. Erin Blanchfield
Location: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date and Time: February 18, 2023. 7 PM ET
How to Watch: ESPN+
Last Fight Record
Andrade had an impressive performance in her last appearance, beating Lauren Murphy with an easy via decision. That was less than a month ago.
Blanchfield had her coming-out party last November when she dominated and stole the hype from Molly McCann at Madison Square Garden in November of 2022.
Andrade vs. Blanchfield Betting Analysis
Jessica Andrade
Andrade is a veteran of the sport and has been one of the most decorated fighters the UFC has ever seen. She is the former UFC strawweight champion. Also, she is currently ranked in the top 10 of both the strawweight and flyweight divisions.
For what she lacks in size, she makes up with strength, speed, and tenacity. The high-volume fighter chases finishes in her fights, and that style has led to an impressive 17 career victories inside the distance. She has nine KOs and eight submissions under her belt.
The Brazilian fighter also averages an incredible 6.80 significant strikes landed per minute inside the octagon while absorbing 5.26 strikes. This is a sign of a very high-volume and aggressive fighter. She also adds 2.72 takedowns per 15 minutes and a 73% takedown defense. This woman is world-class and will be a massive test for Blanchfield.
Erin Blanchfield
This impressive young woman showed how many levels she is above most of the flyweight division by her dominating performance at Madison Square Garden. From gaining a reputation in BJJ circuits and Invicta FC to headlining the UFC next fight, Blanchfield has impressed.
With only four UFC bouts, the big question mark is Blanchfield’s experience and ability to fight through tough situations that she will surely face going up against a championship-level opponent.
The analytics stand out, though. Blanchfield has averaged over 5.75 significant strikes landed per minute in the octagon while only absorbing 2.45. To go along with that, she has averaged four takedowns per 15 minutes and has absolutely dominated everybody on the ground. Training at Renzo Gracie’s academy shows how great she is when she uses those skills in the cage.
Updates
Santos dropped out of the fight; Andrade stepped in on a week’s notice.
Jessica Andrade vs. Erin Blanchfield Betting Preview
As we get closer to an Andrade vs Blanchfield prediction, we have to look at the best betting lines for this next main event on the UFC schedule.
Andrade is the -153 betting favorite halfway through fight week. This shows how highly the oddsmakers think of Blanchfield, giving the former title holder only a slight edge over a 23-year-old with no top-10 wins.
Blanchfield at the +133 underdog seems like a crazy line, especially when you probably haven’t ever seen her fight before if you are new to betting on the UFC. She has come out of nowhere, and her hype is growing every day. A victory for her this weekend would propel her into title contention, much like we saw with Sean O’Malley last October.
An interesting line is the over/under is set at 2.5 rounds at most major sportsbooks. This seems like a trap, but the over 2.5 feels like a lock. Andrade is too solid on the ground and too dangerous on the feet to be finished that early. Blanchfield has question marks, but she will be very careful in the early rounds, knowing Andrade will be hunting her down.
To add to the point made above, Andrade is taking this fight on short notice and less than a month since her last octagon appearance. You need to assume she is not in perfect shape for a 5-round fight, so she will be trying to get the job done before the later rounds come into play.
Blanchfield might also not be in 5-round condition, with UFC Vegas 69 originally slated for a men’s bantamweight main MMA event.
Andrade vs. Blanchfield Betting Prediction
We all know how difficult it is to make good UFC predictions week-to-week. The sport of MMA is so tough to get a good grasp on. Even if you are invested in it full-time, it is impossible to make perfect predictions consistently.
When making a proper Andrade vs Blanchfield prediction, take the analysis and betting preview into account. Both women have tons of skill and athletic ability, but they also bring different styles into the octagon.
Andrade will try to bully the young Erin Blanchfield early on in this fight. It is going to be a big ask for Blanchfield to be able to take the shots that Andrade will be throwing and to also be on the offensive attack throughout the 5-rounds.
The only pick you can make this weekend is the Andrade moneyline. Throw every trend and statistic out of the way and think about this fight for what it is: a short-notice main event between a long-time championship-level fighter in her prime and a 23-year-old that just beat Molly McCann on the prelims.
This might very well be where Blanchfield proves she is a top fighter in the world, but we need to go with what we know, and that is Andrade being too much for her opponent over 25 minutes.
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