Arguably the most intriguing fight of UFC in Vegas 70 this weekend will be in the co-main event slot on the card. Middleweights Andre Muniz and Brendan Allen are going to battle it out in the octagon to set the table for the main event of the evening.
If you want to bet on the UFC this weekend, read into this betting analysis and the full Muniz vs Allen prediction we have for you before you hammer down bets on your weekend slate.
Andre Muniz vs. Brendan Allen Information
Andre Muniz vs Brendan Allen
Location: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date and Time: February 25, 2023. 7 PM ET
How to Watch: ESPN+
Andre Muniz vs. Brendan Allen Last Fight Record
Muniz is coming off a solid unanimous decision over longtime UFC veteran Uriah Hall last July.
Allen scored a first-round submission over Krzysztof Jotko in his last appearance.
Andre Muniz vs. Brendan Allen Betting Analysis
Andre Muniz Facts to Know
Muniz is one of the more interesting fighters on the entire UFC roster. He is a 33-year-old Brazilian with a very impressive 23-4 professional record. He has only five fights in the UFC and has looked fairly dominant in all of them. Now that he gets a top 15 ranking, the UFC gives him someone outside of the top 15? Tough spot to be in.
The Brazilian has 19 finishes in his career, including 15 submission wins. Standing in a southpaw stance, Muniz won’t do much damage in the striking department. He only averages 1.91 significant strikes landed per minute in the octagon.
The grappling is where Muniz can do damage. He averages 3.71 takedowns per 15 minutes being in the octagon and has an average of 2.1 submissions attempted per fight as well. Including both his DWCS fights, with the one that earned him a UFC contract, Muniz is 7-0 with four submission victories inside the UFC octagon.
Brendan Allen Facts to Know
Allen has been a guy that has really become a company man since the pandemic hit. Even through uncertain times, you are going to get at least three fights a year from Allen. The only big question mark the Sanford MMA athlete has is trying to figure out why he loses the big fights. His only two losses have been against the only two current top 15 guys Allen has fought.
The Milwaukee resident is a very solid martial artist with an impressive 20-5 record. At 27 years old, with that experience, he still has plenty of time to make a run at a UFC title. Allen has an impressive 11 submission victories under his belt, something that even a dominant grappler like Muniz can’t scoff at.
The most important analytic for this matchup is going to be the mediocre 50% takedown defense that Allen has, as well as how he attempts 1.5 submissions per 15 minutes. Will his game on the ground be enough to fend off Andre Muniz?
Updates
No injuries were reported to the NSAC.
Andre Muniz vs. Brendan Allen Betting Preview
When a card like this shows up on the UFC schedule, and the average fan thinks it is lame because of the lack of notable names, that is when it turns out to be one of the most fun cards of the year and is a reason to love betting on these.
When a UFC event is lacking big names, that means you, as a bettor, can leave all the outside factors and fandom biases out of the betting process. Breaking down the analytics, film, and betting lines to get a proper Muniz vs Allen prediction is what it’s all about.
UFC odds have Andre Muniz as the -235 betting favorite ahead of this middleweight bout. With him being undefeated in the UFC, this did not come as a big surprise. When someone has dominated veterans like Jacare Souza, Eryk Anders, and Uriah Hall recently, you have to put them as the favorite over a 27-year-old with no notably big wins.
The lack of activity is a slight concern for Muniz, especially with Allen always being a very active professional. So how will durability come into play? Brendan Allen seems like the more physically imposing fighter; will that, along with activity, translate into durability on Saturday night?
Probably the most interesting betting line of this bout is the +175 that this fight will go to a decision. The oddsmakers are really thinking someone will be finished in this one.
Andre Muniz vs. Brendan Allen Betting Prediction
We know how difficult UFC predictions can be to make, but when you can really break down all the aspects of a fight with us and look at betting lines from a focused lens, it makes the process very enjoyable.
The final Muniz vs Allen prediction is that this fight will not go to a decision. This might feel like some pressure from the lines, but it is true that Muniz is on a different level with his grappling skills and will most likely submit Allen. But there is also a big chance that Allen can physically bully Muniz a bit and get a knockout or TKO finish in the later portion of the fight.
The prediction is that this fight is going to be ugly, grimy, and gritty up against the fence as Muniz tries getting his hands all over Allen and looking for a slick little trip. And Allen will be trying to dig underhooks in and control Muniz against the fence.
This is a closer fight than the odds might say it is, and Allen is a great underdog pick for this weekend. It is too close of a fight to pick a moneyline, so that’s why I’m going with the fight ending inside the distance at -220.
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