Another APEX event is set on this weekend’s UFC fight schedule and the fight the card was made around is this heavyweight main event between Tai Tuivasa and Marcin Tybura. Both men are coming off a low point in their UFC run, but a big win this weekend can help them stay afloat at the top of the division.
Tuivasa vs. Tybura Picks
- Pick: Tuivasa by KO, TKO or DQ (-115)
Continue reading for the official Tuivasa vs Tybura prediction ahead of placing any UFC bets on this weekend’s card.
Tai Tuivasa vs Marcin Tybura Information
Tai Tuivasa vs Marcin Tybura
Location of the game: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
Date and Time: March 16, 2024. 7 PM ET main card start
How to Watch: ESPN+
Last Fight Record
Tuivasa is coming off a second-round submission loss to Alexander Volkov last September at UFC 293.
Tybura is coming off a first-round KO loss to the current interim champion, Tom Aspinall, last July in London.
Tai Tuivasa vs Marcin Tybura Betting Analysis
Tai Tuivasa
Tuivasa is an Australian fighter with a professional MMA record of 14-6, including 13 wins by TKO/KO under his belt. Before being the current #9 heavyweight in the UFC, Tuivasa has fought multiple times in boxing and kickboxing and has won an AFC heavyweight title in his home country’s promotion. In the UFC, he has earned five post-fight bonuses.
Tuivasa is listed as a 6’2” southpaw with a 75” reach, weighing in at just below the heavyweight limit. He averages only 3.98 significant strikes landed per minute in the octagon, but he packs a dangerous punch. On the wrestling side of things, Tuivasa holds a modest 54% takedown defense.
Marcin Tybura
Tybura is a Polish heavyweight mixed martial artist with a professional record of 24-8, including 9 wins by TKO/KO and 6 submissions. He is currently the #10 ranked heavyweight in the UFC, but he is also the former K-1 heavyweight champion and is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. He has earned three performance bonuses in the UFC as well.
Tybura is listed as a 6’3” orthodox striker with a 78” reach while weighing in at around 249 lbs in recent fights. He averages 3.55 significant strikes landed per minute and 1.39 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. He also holds an impressive 79% takedown defense.
Updates
No injuries have been reported to the UFC or ESPN.
Tai Tuivasa vs Marcin Tybura Betting Preview
Before making a Tuivasa vs Tybura prediction, you need to understand that heavyweight MMA is a different animal at this level. We need to preview the betting lines and study as much tape as possible on these two before making a pick, along with any of the upcoming UFC fights this weekend.
Starting with the available UFC odds, this fight is currently at pick ‘em -110 odds for each fighter. This is a great line because you should honestly look at the majority of UFC heavyweight fights like this–a coin flip. The fight is also heavily favored to end inside the distance at -650 according to the BetUS sportsbook.
If you are betting on this fight, you should bet on whichever fighter to win inside the distance. These two big boys aren’t going the full 25 minutes, so you might as well.
Stylistically, Tybura is the better martial artist. Black belt skills on the ground, even though those go out the window when you’re dealing with a big sweaty Tuivasa down there. Tybura is a more technical fighter, but this might come back to hurt him in this one.
Tuivasa is a street fighter. He came up as one and he holds that reputation proudly and takes that mindset into the octagon. HTuivasa will always come forward and let his hands go in the pocket. He has the confidence that he only needs to hit someone once to win the fight.
Tai Tuivasa vs Marcin Tybura Betting Prediction
When you see Tuivasa fighting on the UFC schedule, you circle the date and tune in. He is a fan favorite for a reason. Even though he comes off as someone who doesn’t care too much about the fight game, this weekend has a different feel to it.
His back is against the wall after losing three straight to guys at the top, now he needs to fight for his spot. With that being said, the Tuivasa vs Tybura prediction is that Tuivasa gets the job done by KO.
The leg kicks are going to be key for Tuivasa to win this fight. He needs to compromise the legs of Tybura early and then use his pressure to find the Polish contender’s chin. With a win here, Tuivasa will have bought himself another couple of upcoming UFC fights with important implications attached to them.
- Pick: Tuivasa by KO, TKO or DQ (-115)
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