Salt Lake City, Utah, is back on the UFC schedule this Saturday, August 20. Headlining the main card will be a title fight between two welterweights, Kamaru Usman and Leon Edwards.
I am going to move your attention to a 2-fighter parlay that can give you some value on a card full of big favorites.
Jared Gordon vs. Leonardo Santos
Jared Gordon Analysis
Jared Gordon (18-5) has one of the most inspiring life stories on the UFC roster. As a young man, he fell into an addiction to painkillers that eventually led Gordon to use heroin and panhandle the streets of Queens, New York.
He now has this life experience and recovery under his belt and wants to use his platform of performing in the UFC to inspire other drug addicts to get clean and to use martial arts as a tool to help them.
Gordon’s Background
He is a very solid wrestler with skills in the boxing and BJJ aspects of fighting to complement him.
Gordon has won 3 out of his last four fights, looking to really break into the top 15 of a stacked lightweight division.
His last time being finished was against Charles Oliveira in 2019, which is nothing to hang his head about.
Expectations for Gordon
Look for him to keep his pressure up against an older man in Santos and to land the bigger shots on the feet while being more aggressive if the fight goes to the ground.
I see this matchup staying on the feet because of the respect that Gordon should have for Santos’ BJJ threats.
Leonardo Santos Analysis
Leonardo Santos is a Brazilian that has been running under the radar in the UFC since 2013. He has tons of experience fighting guys at the UFC level, along with training with great fighters in Brazil.
Santos’ Background
Santos was on a 14-fight unbeaten streak that was ended by getting finished by Grant Dawson in 2021, the same guy who finished Gordon the same year.
He has now lost two in a row for the first time in his MMA career, and at the age of 42, it will be interesting to see how he bounces back with his career potentially on the line.
He is surely a grappling-heavy fighter that wants to submit to his opponents. It seems like when he was older, he got his “old man strength” and he knocked two guys in 2 of his last 4 wins in the UFC, only having three knockouts in his career.
Expectations for Santos
Look for Santos to be dangerous from his back if Gordon looks to take him down in this one.
UFC Pick: Jared Gordon to win (-280)
Paulo Costa vs. Luke Rockhold
Paulo Costa Analysis
Paulo Costa is one of the scariest fighters on the roster, even with losing two fights in a row now. He dropped a tough matchup for a title against Adesanya, and did not look like not himself against Vettori.
Costa’s Background
Costa is a big, strong, athletic Brazilian fighter that enjoys imposing his will upon his opponents in the octagon. He is only 31 years old, and this is the first time his back has been against the wall in his career.
Lots of out of the cage distractions seem to be an issue for Costa over the last few years. His weight has been an issue, which might be correlated to the embarrassing loss to Adesanya with a ton of eyes on him.
He says that he is in the best shape of his life and ready to start his journey over, which is very promising if you’re a Costa fan, but we won’t know how he looks until the cage door locks on Saturday night in Utah.
Expectations for Costa
UFC odds have Costa at a pretty massive favorite over the former Strikeforce and UFC champion, Luke Rockhold. At -400, Costa really has no value in picking him against a very tough opponent.
Look for Costa to try to walk Rockhold down and hurt him with big shots, really testing the UFC veteran’s chin that hasn’t held up in the last few fights of Rockhold’s career.
Luke Rockhold Analysis
Luke Rockhold has been a pretty polarizing personality in MMA over the years. The former Strikeforce and UFC champion went to the top of the sport to the bottom very quickly.
The “meme” culture of the MMA community likes to take shots at how durable Rockhold is nowadays after being knocked out a few times, but Rockhold truly looks the best he has going into a fight week in years.
Rockhold’s Background
He is great on a mic, so all this serious talk about his health and focus and shift of mindset could be all smoke and mirrors, but it gives me hope. I believe that if someone with the natural talent and athletic ability that Luke Rockhold has, decides to put all their energy and focus in life into something like this, it should turn into a positive outcome for them.
This is a massive opportunity for Rockhold to realize his dreams again and put himself right back up in the driver’s seat for a title fight in the UFC.
His name and the momentum behind an impressive win here against Costa will most likely launch him into a title fight in a division that needs “new” blood to challenge for a title.
According to MMA odds, Rockhold is sitting at +300 as an underdog against Costa. This has a lot of value for a single moneyline pick, but I decided to pair it with a Gordon play and make it into a parlay.
UFC Pick: Luke Rockhold to win (+300)
UFC Parlay Verdict
This card has lots of big favorites that can be an easy play at a parlay, but this one will make things interesting and has some big-time value that makes UFC picks a lot more fun to make. Jared Gordon and Luke Rockhold both winning at odds of +443.
- Jared Gordon (-280)
- Luke Rockhold (+300)
UFC Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+443)
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